Updated June 27, 2015: The TTC’s 2016-2025 Bus Fleet Plan has been added to the end of this article.

At its June 21, 2015, meeting, the TTC Board approved leasing the former York Region Transit Concord garage at 8301 Keele Street (between Highway 7 and Langstaff Road). With 50 new buses to be delivered at the end of 2015 and no place to put them, the TTC desperately needs more garage space. The planned McNicoll Garage will not come on stream until 2020 and this leaves Toronto with a shortfall to handle both ridership growth and restoration of better crowding standards for peak service just as political support for improved transit has returned to City Hall.

The capacity of existing garages in May 2015 shows how close to the line the TTC already is. The numbers below are stated in 12m bus equivalents counting each artic as 1.5 vehicles. Maintenance spares are additional to the scheduled service, and this ratio is planned to rise from 16.8% to 18% in 2016. Capital spares are vehicles that are either in warranty/retrofit programs, or are going through mid-life cycle rebuilds.

Garage               Capacity   Scheduled

Arrow Road              235         227
Birchmount              202         195
Eglinton                252         246
Malvern                 244         245
Mount Dennis            235         230
Queensway               147         144
Wilson                  252         244

Total                 1,567       1,531
Maintenance Spares      263
Capital Spares           77
Grand Total           1,907
[Source: Service Changes for the May 2015 Board Period]

The capacity of the garages including room for maintenance is only 1,630 [per TTC Board report], but the rest of the fleet is not sitting at Hillcrest for overhaul. In fact, the garages are overcrowded because more space is needed for routine maintenance than is actually available.

If the loading standards for peak service are improved by 10%, this will not affect every route in the system because some of the minor ones operate with elbow room to spare. This typically occrs on routes with few vehicles where adding or removing one bus has a very large effect on the average load and service cannot be scheduled exactly to the current standard. However, if more buses are needed on, say, routes using 2/3 of the fleet, this would represent an increase of about 100 buses for service plus at least 120 spares. Ridership growth at 3% per year over the next five years would add at least another 250 buses to fleet requirements absent any offsets for expansion of the rail network.

The TTC’s 2015 Fleet Plan was based on a lower growth rate, and had no provision for improvement in the crowding standard.

Some buses will be released by the opening of the TYSSE at the end of 2017, and there is another drop in 2021 after the Eglinton Crosstown line replaces busy routes in that corridor. Only at that point does the number of scheduled buses drop back to current levels, and so extra space is needed in the interim just to maintain loading standards, never mind to improve them.

Concord Garage can handle up to 90 12m buses, but planned service improvements to 2020 will push the fleet to almost 500 buses beyond existing garage capacity. McNicoll Garage will be completely consumed the day it opens, and the TTC will still require another new garage subject to whatever savings new rail lines might bring.

An updated fleet and garage plan will appear as part of the 2016 budget process. The challenge will then be for Council to continue its pro-transit stance with funding for better bus service, not just for construction projects.

Updated June 27, 2015: 2016-2025 Bus Fleet Plan added

As part of the Preliminary 2016 Capital Budget background material, the updated fleet plan is now available.

This shows the evolution of fleet requirements relative to garage capacity. The planned increase in the total fleet shows that the TTC is making provision for service increases in coming years, despite original indications that the 50 buses coming late in 2015 were a “one shot” improvement. What exactly will be proposed is not yet clear because the details of future operating budgets are not yet public.

There is a drop in the rate of increase in 2017 likely due to the net effect of the TYSSE opening late that year, and future drops the correspond to the opening of the Eglinton Crosstown and the GO/RER/SmartTrack service and Scarborough Subway a few years later.

This shows how an additional garage beyond even McNicoll is required well into the next decade. Indeed, even with some additional rapid transit capacity, the bus fleet is hardly going to vanish. A 2% annual fleet growth would be equivalent to about 40 buses, or a full garage worth in about 6 years. The intriguing part about this plan is that a new garage of the same size as McNicoll is needed by 2017. We could have McNicoll by then if the project had not been sidelined thanks to the service and funding cuts of the Ford/Stintz era. “Saving money” does not always save money.

(Note that the capacities shown are in 12m buses or equivalent for planning purposes.)

The summer schedules will be unusual for the TTC this year because of the Pan Am Games. There will be three periods running from:

• June 21 to July 10 (pre-games)
• July 11 to July 26 (Pan Am Games)
• July 27 to September 5 (Para-Pan Games and CNE)

To condense the information about schedule and service changes, I have adopted a different format from the usual tables to show (a) all of the time periods for affected routes and (b) the periods where there is actually a change from the “standard” summer service (the pre-games period). Where there is a change, it is highlighted in red.

For this type of event, the day-to-day requirements on each route are hard to predict, and so the TTC has scheduled a much larger than usual pool of standby or “run as directed” vehicles that will be available throughout the network.

Schedule changes implemented on June 21, 2015 have already been detailed in a separate post. Pre-games service levels are shown for reference in the table linked below only for routes that are affected by the Games schedule changes.

Updated June 21:

Pan Am routes will operate on the following days:

• 194 Aquatics Rocket: July 9-26 and August 8-14
• 193 Exhibition Rocket: July 11-26
• 60F Steeles Express (added service): July 11-25
• 95E York Mills Express (added service): July 11-25
• 406 Venue Shuttle Downtown: July 13-25 and August 8-15
• 408 Venue Shuttle East: August 8-14

Additional service beyond the scheduled level will operate for the Para-Pan Games on the several routes serving Para-Pan venues:

• 38 Highland Creek
• 195 Jane Rocket
• 60 Steeles West
• 198 UTSC Rocket
• 95 York Mills
• 196 York U Rocket

From Friday, July 10 to Sunday, July 26, late night repair work on the Yonge subway tunnel north of Eglinton will be suspended, and service will run until 2:00 am on all days.

Weekday service on 7 Bathurst Bus will revert to regular buses on the schedule used in July 2013. This will free up articulated buses for Pan Am routes.

Low floor streetcars will operate on 509 Harbourfront, 510 Spadina and 511 Bathurst during the games period. All service on Queens Quay will be provided by Harbourfront cars, and the Spadina route will terminate at Queens Quay Loop.

Buses will replace streetcars on 502 Downtowner from July 13 to 24 to free up vehicles for other routes. The 503 Kingston Road Tripper will continue to operate with streetcars. On Friday, July 10, Wellington Street will be closed after 4:00pm as part of the opening ceremonies. 503 Kingston Road Tripper cars will operate to Charlotte Loop.

Because the CNE grounds will be closed, all 29 Dufferin buses will loop at Dufferin Loop (CNE western entrance). Additional shuttle service will operate between Dufferin Station and Dufferin Loop. The 329 Dufferin Night Bus will also turn back from Dufferin Loop rather than operating to the Princes’ Gates. This change remains in effect until September 6 due to the CNE.

Route 116 Morningside will divert southbound via Ellesmere and Morningside, bypassing Military Trail, to avoid congestion at the Aquatics Centre during the games.

Route 198 UTSC Rocket will terminate at the Aquatics Centre rather than the usual UTSC loop during the games.

Route 106 York University will divert westbound in the campus via The Pond Road, York U Busway and York Boulevard to The Common because Ian MacDonald Boulevard is closed. This change began on June 15 and is scheduled to continue until September 6. Route 196 York U Rocket will operate with articulated buses and with additional service.

From July 11 to August 8, 172 Cherry will loop downtown to City Hall via York, Queen and Bay to King.

Route 94 Wellesley will divert via Bloor between Queen’s Park and Spadina as Hoskin Avenue is closed as a games venue. This diversion is scheduled until September 6.

Route 6 Bay will divert via Dundas, Yonge and Queen on the afternoon of Saturday, August 15 for the Para-Pan closing ceremonies at City Hall.

On Saturdays July 18 and 25, and on August 8, Parkside Drive will be closed for marathon and cycling races. The following routes are affected:

• 506 Carlton will divert to Dundas West Station
• 80 Queensway will divert via Bloor, Dundas, Roncesvalles and The Queensway

The base schedule for Sunday July 26 will be a Holiday schedule. Because this is the last day of the games, some Pan Am services will not operate: express services on Steeles West (60F) and York Mills (95E), the 194 Aquatics Rocket, and the 406 Downtown Venue Shuttle.

Route Changes Effective July 27:

• 17A Birchmount peak period service will be extended from 14th Avenue to Highway 7, and headways north of Steeles will widen. This is a York Region request.
• 127 Davenport will be extended south to loop via Spadina Crescent to accommodate construction at Spadina Station. Buses will connect with the subway at on-street stops. This project is expected to be completed by the end of November.
• 47 Lansdowne will be adjusted to allow for delays due to road construction on Caledonia between Rogers Road and Eglinton. A northbound diversion is planned, but the route has not  been announced.
• Due to paving and reconstruction at Eglinton Station, routes serving this location will be diverted as the work progresses to serve the south entrance of the station on Yonge Street. Service relief buses will be scheduled at Eglinton Station. The exact details of dates and the diversion routes are TBA.
• Due to paving and reconstruction of the bus roadway at St. Clair Station, routes 74 Mt. Pleasant and 88 South Leaside will loop on street via Avoca, Pleasant Blvd., Yonge and St. Clair. 97 Yonge midday service will use the streetcar loop.
• From August 1 to September 5, water main work on Broadview north of Danforth will require that streetcars be replaced by buses. 504 King cars will loop via Parliament, Dundas and Broadview to Queen. 505 Dundas cars will loop via Parliament, Gerrard and Broadview to Dundas. The schedules will not be changed. A replacement bus will operate on Broadview looping at the south end via Queen, Parliament, Dundas and River. This service was operated in the summer of 2014 when the construction work was originally scheduled, but not actually carried out.

201507_PAG_ServiceChanges

On June 15, TTC Chair Josh Colle and Deputy CEO Chris Upfold held a press conference at Bathurst Station to announce the “Ten Minute Network”, one more step in restoring transit’s lustre after the Ford/Stintz regime of cutbacks.

The announcement trumpeted the change for more than it actually represents:

The improvements include all four subway lines, 10 streetcar routes and 37 bus routes and will be implemented through the end of 2015 and into 2016.

Of course the subway lines already run at better than a 10 minute headway, as do most streetcar lines most of the time. Colle talked about how people would not be waiting as long for their bus. Technically, that is true, provided that their bus is one that now runs less frequently. Changes are planned for subway services, but they are not included in this package (I suspect we will see those in the 2016 budget proposals).

For convenience, I have consolidated all of the current service levels (May 10, 2015 schedules) for the affected routes into a chart.

TenMinuteNet201506

The routes are colour coded to indicate their current status:

• Green indicates a route that already has service every 10 minutes or better
• Red flags a change that was implemented in the May 10, 2015 schedules
• Blue flags a change that will be implemented in the June 21, 2015 schedules
• Purple flags a route and time period where the service has not yet been improved to the 10 minute standard

Where times are shown in black, they were already at 10′ or better before May 10, are are not affected by the announcement. A considerable amount of service already operates at better than 10′ headways, or will by June 21.

Of particular note is the inclusion of 501 Queen from Neville to Long Branch in the list. Riders in southern Etobicoke will finally get “frequent” service. Moreover, the TTC plans to revise scheduled running times so that streetcars do not have to short turn as often just to stay on time.

The list of routes includes a note that peak period constraints on fleet size will prevent improvements on 501 Queen, 65 Parliament and 96 Wilson until there are more vehicles. This may be true for peak periods, but nothing prevents the TTC from adding off-peak service immediately.

The schedules going into effect on June 21 will be used through the summer except for the Pan Am Games period in July. Therefore, the next “new” schedules will not appear until September.