TTC Major Capital Projects: 2025 Year-End Update

The TTC Board agenda for its April 16 meeting includes a pair of reports giving the year-end status for the Operating and Capital budgets, as well as a detailed update on major capital projects.

In this article, I will review the status of major projects to summarize info for readers. In a separate article, I will turn to the 2025 operating results. Those wishing more detail should refer to the full reports.

An important factor with many projects is that they are multi-year efforts, and some of them are not fully funded. This has different implications for various types of projects such as:

  • A project might still not have full funding, but a portion can proceed with the hope of additional moneys appearing along the way.
  • A project might have stages, but only be funded for some of them. A new vehicle purchases might have money for part of an order, but not for a sustained rollout.
  • Projects could be interrelated in that full exploitation of benefits cannot be achieved without completion of both. For example, a new Automatic Train Control cannot work without a fleet that can “talk” to the new signal system. Larger fleets cannot be accommodated without new storage and maintenance facilities.

Although these are large and in some cases quite expensive projects, this is not an exhaustive list. Some parts of TTC State Of Good Repair budget involve areas with many smaller projects (for example, building and structures maintenance) that are quite large in the aggregate. Vehicle overhaul is an ongoing cost, but it is not listed as a “major project” because it is routine work. These items do not appear in the Major Projects report although they comprise a large portion of the capital budget.

The projects discussed here are:

  • Subway Work Car Fleet and Maintenance
  • Station Easier Access, Second Exits and Fire Ventilation
  • New Subway Cars for Lines 1 and 2
  • ATC Signals for Line 2
  • Rogers 5G Rollout
  • Capacity Enhancements for Lines 1 and 2
  • Bloor-Yonge Capacity
  • Scarborough Busway Project
  • New Buses for Conventional and Wheel-Trans Service
  • eBus Charging Systems
  • Facilities for the Expanded Streetcar Fleet
  • New TTC Operations Centre
  • VISION (Vehicle Tracking System) Implementation
  • SAP Enterprise IT System Implementation
  • PRESTO System Upgrade
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TTC Strategic Planning Committee: March 31, 2026

This article is a follow-up to my previous reviews of items on the March 31 Strategic Planning Committee agenda:

Also included are comments on the Fare Alignment and Seamless Transit Act, 2026 introduced in the Ontario Legislature on March 30.

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Ridership or Budget: What Should Drive TTC Strategy?

Long range strategic planning is not a common sight at the TTC. Yes, we see maps, we see service plans, we even have some nominally “bold” projects like RapidTO’s red lanes. But what we do not see is a focused debate about where Toronto and its transit system should be going, and how we will get there.

Pre-pandemic, the system was bulging with riders. Among other things, this launched the Bloor-Yonge station expansion project and deferred the Richmond Hill subway extension until we could be sure of having capacity to handle new riders from York Region.

Things changed in the early 20s with widespread ridership loss, especially downtown commuters. GO Transit was hit hard by this thanks to their long-standing commuter driven business model. On the TTC, although commuter traffic remains below 2019 levels, weekend demand has built higher. Demand does exist, although not always on the old model, but provided that there is service to handle the rides.

Since 2020, the overwhelming question has been where the money will come from to keep service running. A mixture of provincial and federal contributions got us through the worst of those years, and some special provincial subsidies still flow. The dollar value of the City’s share roughly doubled from 2019 (actual) to 2026 (budget) with the City now paying 49% of total operating costs (including WheelTrans). The Provincial share in 2026 is about 9% of the total of which about 3% is from gas tax and the rest from special subsidies which will soon end unless they are renegotiated.

Fare freezes under both the Tory and Chow administrations coupled with lost ridership limited revenue growth. Because fares now make up a much lower proportion of total revenue, a large fare increase would be required to restore the historic fares:subsidy ratio if that were the target.

The Capital Budget has an even worse situation with a long list of unfunded projects and no clear indication how much the Provincial or Federal governments have any appetite to fund them. In the short to medium term, the substantial Provincial spending will go to works in progress including Toronto subways and GO expansion.

With all of the focus on just finding money to keep the lights on, there has been little attention to service beyond preserving as much as can be afforded. TTC claims of service recovery use a metric, service hours, that appears to show recovery to 2019 levels, but does not allow for the effects of congestion. Actual service frequencies are down on many lines.

Back in 2018, the Ridership Growth Strategy proposed a tiered set of changes to drive growth at 1%, 2% or 5% annually. This was not pursued in any detail, and the pandemic overtook any thoughts of aggressive growth. The RGS was replaced by the Five Year Service Plan which, in its current version, covers years 2024-2028. It aims at modest growth, and yet even those goals are not fully funded.

What is needed to drive growth beyond business as usual levels? Is there a latent, unserved market for travel because transit is too inconvenient or simply not serving trips people need to make? Where is this market? Does the current network serve it well? Some growth can be achieved by making transit easier to use by existing riders, but what is needed for net new travel made by choice, not necessity?

Within this gloomy setting, the question of “where are we going” can turn into debates about funding without much thought to what might be possible, or what will be needed to encourage annual growth well above a few percent.

TTC’s Strategic Planning Committee meets on March 31. This will be their last chance to launch any discussion and study that can affect the 2027 budget cycle, and provide the basis for any post-election discussion of transit policy for 2028 and beyond.

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Fare Capping Coming to the TTC in 2026

Mayor Chow announced that as part of her 2026 Toronto Budget, fare capping will be introduced on the TTC starting in September 2026.

The cap will be set at 47 rides per calendar month and will apply to all fare classes including adults, seniors and youth. This will bring the senior’s and youth monthly fares down to the same multiple as adults. Chow also proposes that the TTC budget for a 40 ride cap in 2027.

The caps will apply to fares paid by Presto, debit or credit card provided that the same card is used for all rides. This is enabled by changes in Presto’s “back end” system that will keep track of rides used and charge accordingly. Monthly passes will disappear, but frequent riders will get the equivalent benefit without buying a pass up front. This is important for those on tight budgets who do not know what their travel habits will be in advance.

The anticipated cost in 2026 will be $2.9-million less TTC farebox revenue, and a further $0.6-million for the City due to the reduced effective price of their “Fair Pass” for low income riders.

This is a long-overdue change to the fare structure that was first approved in principle by the TTC Board many years ago. Now finally it will be implemented because of the Mayor’s willingness to fund it, and Presto’s ability to support it for all types of payment.

No details of how this scheme will interact with regional fare deals such as 905+416 trips and GO+TTC trips have been announced.

The proposal will first go to the TTC Board’s budget meeting in January, and then through the City’s budget process to Council on February 10, 2026.

TTC Ridership Growth and Fare Options Update

The TTC’s Strategic Planning Committee will meet on September 4 at 10:00am in the Board Room at 1900 Yonge Street, TTC headquarters. Among the items on the agenda is a report titled 2026-2028 Ridership Growth Strategy: 2026 Budget Considerations.

This report proposes implementation of six initiatives through the 2026 Budget which is now in preparation:

  • Fare capping (limiting the accumulated charge for trips within a month) as a replacement for monthly passes.
  • Year 1 of the TTC’s Wayfinding Strategy
  • Support growth from changing work-from-home practices
  • Improve service reliability
  • Implement outstanding proposals from the 2024 and 2025 Annual Plans
  • Bring service to the standards for crowding, express network routes, and the 10-minute network

There are many other possible tactics for building ridership. These are not included in the report, but the intent is to report back to the Board following budget approval in early 2026 with an updated RGS.

Updated September 1 at 10:40pm: The list of additional RGS options has been added to the end of this article.

A related issue is the question of a fare increase, the revenue it might generate and the likely reaction to such a proposal. A variety of increases from 5 to 35 cents on various fare classes are presented for discussion, but there is no recommendation.

Full disclosure: I participated in a meeting of the TTC’s Planning Advisory Group to discuss the proposed RGS along with other interested parties. There is a summary of our comments in the report [pp 6-7].

Updated September 4 at 9:00 pm: The Presentation Deck for this item is now available. I will add commentary to the article in coming days.

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TTC Strategic Planning Committee: July 10, 2025

Introduction

On January 10, 2025 as part of the budget process, the TTC Board approved:

  1. Establish a Strategic Planning Committee to assist the TTC Board in managing strategic planning and priorities, including through a Ridership Growth Strategy and other existing strategic documents, and direct the Director, Commission Services to report back to the February 24, 2025 TTC Board meeting on a proposed structure and meeting schedule after canvassing Commissioners’ interest in committee membership;
  2. Amend the 2025 Schedule of Meetings to add a Special Meeting of the Board in September 2025 to consider recommendations from the Strategic Planning Committee, receive an update on the 2026 Budget, and discuss budget priorities informing the development of the 2026 TTC Operating Budget; 2026-2035 Capital Budget and Plan and 15-Year Capital Investment Plan and Real Estate Investment Plan Update;
  3. Direct the Director, Commission Services to include a Special Meeting to consider recommendations from the Strategic Planning Committee, receive an update on the next year’s budget, and discuss budget priorities informing the development of the next year’s budgets in future year’s recommended annual schedule of Board and Committee meetings for the Board’s approval, in
    accordance with Section 20 of the By-law to Govern Board Proceedings;
  4. TTC Staff conduct public consultations and develop a Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0, building upon the Ridership Growth Strategy 2018-2022 and report back to the Board in July 2025;
  5. TTC staff develop a hiring strategy on the basis of the approved Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0 and report back to the Board by October 2025; and TTC staff use the approved Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0 and associated hiring strategy to inform the 2026 TTC Budget process.

I began writing this article before the meeting took place as background based on the then-posted materials. After attending the meeting, I found that it was more productive than I had expected thanks in part to two presentations that were not in the original published agenda.

TTC Chair Jamaal Myers praised Councillor/Commissioner Alejandra Bravo who chairs the Strategic Planning Committee for the work she did in producing a focused agenda that made for a useful meeting. Past attempts by the Board to engage in general policy debates have been rare.

There was much more meat on the presentations than we have seen in a long while at the TTC. Heavy going in places, and some hard truths about the options available. This type of briefing is long overdue, and will provide the foundation for informed discussions at the TTC Board and eventually at Council.

The actual establishment of a committee contemplated in point 11 did not actually occur until the Board meeting of April 16, 2025, and the first meeting only now happened, six months after the original motion. It is not clear how much influence the committee will have on the 2026 budget process considering the length of delay.

Although the next meeting date is currently shown as October 25, 2025, Chair Bravo indicated that she does plan to schedule one in time to feed into the budget.

As for consultations on a Ridership Growth Strategy, these have not yet begun, and the TTC is now only in the first round of its Annual Plan consultations. By extension, any service improvements flowing from a new RGS including hiring required to staff buses and streetcars do not yet exist. How much would be done in the 2026 budget remains to be seen.

The delay in the committee’s initiation places the Board in a familiar position. Actual discussion of policy options is pushed off, if it occurs at all, so late in the year that the next budget is “more of the same” because there was no time to consider alternatives. Options for significant growth are never presented to Council because the TTC Board never discusses what might be done.

“Value for Money”

Almost at the end of the meeting, Chair Bravo made a comment about advising the budget process. She posed two questions about funding:

  • Is it the best value for money?
  • Does it create the most value for transit users?

This slipped by quickly, but a vital issue here is that these are not the same question, but two separate issues depending on what one assumes as the role of transit. Best value for money for whom? For taxpayers asked to subsidize transit? For riders awaiting a bus that never comes?

That distinction lies at the heart of every transit funding debate I have heard, but the actual question is never asked, and “value for whom” rarely starts with riders. This can be an important change in budget planning and in advocacy for financial support from the City and Province.

On The Agenda

There are three items on the July 10 agenda:

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Fare Enforcement, Fare Freezes, Service and Budget Cuts

Fare evasion and enforcement are a common topic at TTC Board meetings, and for some time the sense has been that “there’s gold in them thar hills” among Commissioners. Debates can run for hours on what efforts should be launched, what policies for limited toleration there should be, and how much more can be spent on enforcement.

A fundamental flaw in these debates is that the presumed gross losses to fare evasion, based on field studies and estimates, is $140-million annually as reported by the City of Toronto’s Auditor General in March 2024. However, the TTC’s ability to recoup this missing revenue varies from place to place on the system because there are multiple ways to avoid paying.

  • The most obvious case is simply to avoid tapping on to surface vehicles when boarding.
  • Subway stations had “crash gates”, so-called because they were originally intended for cases where large volumes of riders needed to enter or exit quickly, notably for transfers to/from subway shuttles. To serve riders who did not have machine readable fares, these were left open for riders to enter on an honour system.
  • Where riders do pay by dropping money in a farebox (either on a bus or in a station), there is no guarantee they will pay the full amount owed.
  • Riders can walk into most subway stations unchallenged through bus and streetcar loops.

Much of the TTC’s focus has been on the first case, a rider who does not “tap on” to a vehicle, and until quite recently enforcement was directed at streetcars because of their multiple, unmonitored entrances.

TTC recently closed the crash gates so that riders wishing to pay cash must do so either at a fare vending machine. Ticket and token users (while these modes are still accepted) must use the station collector’s farebox, although whether anyone is present to monitor them varies by location and time of day. The estimated loss from open crash gates was $14.2-million per year, and from underpaid cash fares was $9.1-million. This leaves $116.7-million in other types of fare evasion.

In the 2025 Operating Budget, the TTC allocated $2.6-million for 69 additional fare enforcement staff. This is a part-year figure, obviously, as this only pays $37.7-thousand per employee. The anticipated new revenue is $12-million in 2025, and so the recovery ratio is about 4.6:1. That is a good return especially if it can be sustained.

There is no guarantee that hiring more inspectors will necessarily produce the same rate of return. A further problem is that with fares frozen, or increasing slower than wages, the cost of inspectors will go up faster than the recovered fare revenue.

New inspectors will be deployed to check riders getting off of buses in the paid areas of subway stations where inspection is easier than attempting on-board checks, especially on crowded vehicles. Absent fare inspection across the system, there are some types of evasion that will persist. The full estimated losses to evasion will never be recovered, and the implication that this amount would be available as new revenue is, to be kind, misguided.

Much information about evasion and enforcement is available in published reports, but this is not the only way the TTC spends money or foregoes revenue. Other areas do not get a comparable level of attention by the Board:

  • The foregone revenue due to fare freezes and below-inflation increases.
  • The cost of achieving standards to attract more riders to transit.
  • The effect on service quantity and reliability through constraints on maintenance budgets.

Even when these are discussed, the topics are considered in isolation.

In January 2025 as part of the budget approval, the TTC Board voted to establish a Strategic Planning Committee with details to come back for consideration in February. It is now April, and there is no sign of the committee. Previous attempts by members of the Board to increase their participation in planning and budgets have been sandbagged by inaction. Is this a repetition? Is the Board actually willing to perform its oversight role?

The City of Toronto claims to be pro-transit with a strong desire to attract more riders out of their cars. This is not echoed by the planned funding even at the “nice to have” level to see what budgetary effects might result.

The 2026 Budget work will begin in mid-year, and if the Board expects to have any input beyond the most superficial level, now is the time for those discussions and the review of alternatives to occur. So far, there is little sign that this will happen, and the budget will land with little opportunity for substantive change.

We will continue to hear about fare evasion, that shiny, spinning disco ball that diverts attention from most other issues. Some added revenue may be found over time, but a dedicated program to improve the transit system requires more than fare enforcement can provide.

The TTC and Toronto have many policy areas where decisions affect revenues and costs. Fare evasion and enforcement is only one of these. Some decisions, notably about the amount of budgeted service and maintenance levels, never come to the TTC Board for debate, let alone as a set of options ranging from “nice to have” to “absolutely must have”.

It is quite clear that funding for transit capital and operations will not come easily with the many economic pressures Toronto faces, and that was so even before the launch of a trade war and its potential effect on government revenues and priorities.

The TTC needs to discuss strategy for its future and understand what might be possible so that alternatives aspiring for better transit are on the table, not swept out of sight. That’s what a Strategic Planning Committee is for, and why the TTC’s failure to create one is so disheartening.

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TTC Expands Fare Inspection to Bus Routes

The TTC has announced that effective Monday, March 17, fare inspection will occur on bus routes. However, unlike the streetcar system, this will be done at locations where bus passengers enter subway stations at fare-paid interchanges.

To maximize efficiency, inspections will be carried out on bus platforms at integrated stations where customers could be required to show proof-of-payment between exiting buses and entering the subway system.

Fare inspection on board buses is more challenging than on streetcars due to tighter circulation space, and on both modes is particularly difficult on crowded vehicles. A further wrinkle will be added when the new Lines 5 and 6 open because their cars have no on board fare equipment, and riders are expected to “tap on” using machines on platforms at surface stops unlike existing streetcar lines where riders can tap as they enter vehicles.

This type of inspection already occurs at streetcar/subway interchanges. While the tactic is “efficient”, it will not address fare evasion for trips that do not end at a station. The TTC regularly cites a $140-million annual loss to evasion. They give no estimate of the proportion of losses bus-to-subway transfer trips represent, nor the net revenue they expect to obtain after allowing for the cost of inspectors.

TTC Board Meeting Wrap-Up – January 27, 2025

This article covers:

  • The January 2025 CEO’s Report
  • A follow-up on the report re Subway Streetcar Fleet and Infrastructure
  • The proposed interim wayfinding strategy
  • An update on fare collection technology
  • A new procedure for handling complaints about CEO misconduct

I will cover the 2025 Annual Service Plan and the Corporate Plan Update in a separate article.

Location of Reports Changed

Effective with this meeting, the agendas and reports for Board meetings have shifted to the City’s meeting management site which hosts Council and Committee meetings. This will also host documents for Board committees such as Audit & Risk Management. Information for past meetings continues to be available on the TTC’s own site.

In Fall 2024, the CEO’s Report was reorganized with the Key Performance Indicators split off from the main report. There are now separate pages on the TTC site for accessing monthly CEO’s Reports and KPI reports.

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TTC 2025 Budget Meeting Follow-Up

This article includes observations and updates from the January 10, 2025 TTC Board meeting. For background information on the Operating and Capital Budgets, please refer to my previous articles:

The budget report and presentation deck are available on the TTC’s site:

This was the first Board meeting for Deputy Mayor Ausma Malik and Councillor Alejandra Bravo as Commissioners. They replaced Councillors Chris Moise and Stephen Holyday.

There was relatively little debate on the details of the budget with the overall sense being relief that the TTC will be able to make some improvements in service in 2025. However, three Commissioners proposed amendments to the recommendations that foretell a more actively involved Board in setting policy in the coming year.

Normally the Board agendas are released at least a week before meetings in keeping with practice by the City Clerk for Council and Committee agendas. Although it appears, according to Commissioner Matlow, that the budget report was completed a few weeks ago, it was not released until a few days before the meeting when the Mayor and TTC Chair held a press conference to announce the high points. This may serve their post-holiday scheduling, but not the public’s (or other Board members’) ability to digest and comment on the budget in time for the Board meeting.

Motion by Commissioner Matlow

[The Board] Directs the TTC CEO and Director – Commission Services, to publicly release the TTC’s annual budget at least 10 business days prior to its consideration by the Commission.

For many years, the budget has arrived as a fait accompli at the Board with no room for debate about priorities or changes in underlying assumptions about the Board’s goals even when a new Board inherits the philosophy behind an outgoing Board’s budget. The Board has taken a very hands off approach leaving decisions to management with, as we have seen recently, less than ideal results as the priority for tight budgets compromised system integrity.

The motions below are intended to re-establish an active Board as the TTC and City look to establish a stronger role for transit, and to set priorities before budgets lock in past assumptions.

Motion by Commissioner Bravo

[The Board] Establish a Strategic Planning Committee to assist the TTC Board in managing strategic planning and priorities, including through a Ridership Growth Strategy and other existing strategic documents, and direct the Director, Commission Services to report back to the February 24, 2025 TTC Board meeting on a proposed structure and meeting schedule after canvassing Commissioners’ interest in committee membership.

Amend the 2025 Schedule of Meetings to add a Special Meeting of the Board in September 2025 to consider recommendations from the Strategic Planning Committee, receive an update on the 2026 Budget, and discuss budget priorities informing the development of the 2026 TTC Operating Budget; 2026-2035 Capital Budget and Plan and 15-Year Capital Investment Plan and Real Estate Investment Plan Update.

Direct the Director, Commission Services to include a Special Meeting to consider recommendations from the Strategic Planning Committee, receive an update on the next year’s budget, and discuss budget priorities informing the development of the next year’s budgets in future year’s recommended annual schedule of Board and Committee meetings for the Board’s approval, in accordance with Section 20 of the By-law to Govern Board Proceedings.

Chair Myers proposed overlapping goals based on the TTC’s Ridership Growth Strategy. The original RGS from 2003 operated from the premise that management should tell the Board what might be possible as a menu of costed options, rather than precluding discussion on the basis that “we can’t afford it”. The 2018 update was written in the context of rising demand and crowding, and included changes such as the two-hour transfer and GO Transit fare integration. Unsurprisingly, it flagged key factors for both existing and potential new riders: trip duration, wait time, crowding, affordability and reliability. Fare changes can only go so far, and service quality is inherent in four of these five.

The points about hiring strategy are important because past attempts to implement service improvements were hamstrung by “we have no staff”. Establishing priorities well before the budget is finalized can reduce lead times to expand service. (A related change in the 2025 Operating Budget speaks to the need for an improved recruitment process within the TTC.)

Motion by Chair Myers

TTC Staff conduct public consultations and develop a Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0, building upon the Ridership Growth Strategy 2018-2022 and report back to the Board in July 2025;

TTC staff develop a hiring strategy on the basis of the approved Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0 and report back to the Board by October 2025; and

TTC staff use the approved Ridership Growth Strategy 2.0 and associated hiring strategy to inform the 2026 TTC Budget process.

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