Service Analysis of the 505 Dundas/Bingham Diversion (Part I)

On May 7, 2023, the eastern terminus of 505 Dundas shifted from Broadview Station to Bingham Loop due to sewer work, track construction and road paving on Broadview north of Gerrard. This will continue into at least the late Fall 2023.

This operation was not a success by any measure with extremely erratic service on Kingston Road where the 505 replaced the 22 Coxwell bus and the 503 Kingston Road streetcar. Service on the main part of 505 Dundas from Broadview to Dundas West Station has also become less reliable.

July 4, 2023, service changes (505 Dundas was cut back to Woodbine Loop and 503 Kingston Road buses (running as unscheduled extras) provided service to Bingham until 8pm to correct this problem, but riders endured almost two months of bad service. This affected not just Kingston Road but the entire 505 Dundas route.

This article reviews service during the May-June 2023 period when 505 Dundas cars ran to Bingham with comparisons to the “before” conditions on routes 505, 503 and 22. It is a long article with many charts for those who are interested in the details of how this service has behaved over the past six months. In Part II I will turn to reviews of operations on a sample of days in May-June.

In brief, the May schedules unwound improvements made in February that adjusted travel times to better match conditions. Moreover, Februrary saw major service cuts to the 505 Dundas route which compounded with less reliable service to make for much wider gaps between cars. In many ways, this was an “own goal” by the TTC.

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Where Is My Diversion Notice (July 2/23 Edition) (Update 2)

Oh the irony! The TTC’s Annual Service Plan consultations are all about how to handle a few (but not all) of the construction projects coming in 2024, but the elephant in the room remains bad communications and changes on the fly.

The new routes implemented in May and June 2023 were in cases impractical thanks to a combination of unduly optimistic running times in schedules, less than adequate transit priority and line management whose priority was not the provision of well-spaced, reliable service. Several changes will take effect on July 4 and 5 to correct some of these problems, but the information is scattered through the TTC’s website, if you can find it at all.

First, a summary of the changes:

  • The 501/504 shuttle bus (an ad hoc service implemented to cover for the absence of the 503 Kingston Road car to King Street downtown) will be rebranded as “503” and will serve Kingston Road to Bingham Loop until 8pm every day. This will become a scheduled bus service at the end of July, and will revert to 503 streetcars likely in October.
  • The 505 Dundas car will only operate east on Queen from Broadview to Woodbine Loop, except after 8pm when service to Bingham will be provided by streetcars.
  • The 506 Carlton car will only operate to Queen and Broadview and will return west to route via Queen and Parliament Streets without running east to Woodbine Loop.
  • The 512 St. Clair car will be restored, temporarily, west of Lansdowne to Gunns Loop. While it lasts, this will correct for the erratic service now provided there by the 47 Lansdowne extension.

The challenge is to find out that this is happening to your route. The TTC website is very poorly organized with information in many places that is inconsistently placed and linked (or not) to the main route pages affected. Some items are out of date, but remain in place to confuse riders. Some items describe major changes but are hard to find if you don’t know the site in detail.

These are the hallmarks of a site maintained by many groups each with its own (probably jealously guarded) responsibility for providing information. Nobody appears to care about overall site consistency and ease of navigation, or if they do, are in any position to change what is a clearly broken process. Some information is just plain wrong indicating that whoever created or updated the page was either sloppy, or does no know what is actually happening.

Updated July 4, 2023 at 7:10am: Changes to the TTC website since this article was posted are noted in various places below.

Updated July 5, 2023 at 4:30pm: Changes to the TTC website since the July 4 update are noted throughout the article.

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Streetcars on Kingston Road

With the albeit brief re-appearance of streetcar service on Kingston Road courtesy of the 505 Dundas rerouting to Bingham Loop, and the holiday weekend, it’s time for a look at Kingston Road today and as it was decades ago. Parts of the street have changed a lot, others are very much the same.

All photos in this post were taken by me and should be credited if they are reposted elsewhere.

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Changes to Kingston Road, Dundas, Carlton and St. Clair Ave. W. Services (Revised)

The TTC will implement two route changes in July to address, in part, problems with service reliability on construction diversions.

Updated June 30, 2023: The location of Salsa on St. Clair has been corrected.

Updated July 1, 2023: The 506 Carlton cutback to Queen and Broadview has been added.

503 Kingston Road / 505 Dundas

Effective Tuesday, July 4, 2023 (July 3 is a holiday), service on Kingston Road to Bingham Loop (Victoria Park) will be revised on weekdays and Saturdays from 6am to 8pm, Sundays from 8am to 8pm:

  • 505 Dundas cars will turn back at Woodbine Loop in stead of running through to Bingham.
  • 503 Kingston Road buses will operate between Bingham Loop and York Street via King. Because these are “extras”, not scheduled buses, they will not appear on trip prediction apps.

After 8pm on all days, the 505 Dundas car will run through to Bingham Loop as it does now.

This change should relieve problems with tight running times that caused many short turns on 505 Dundas and wide gaps both on Kingston Road and on Dundas west of Lansdowne. (I will publish an analysis of 505 Dundas headways and reliability in early July.)

Effective Sunday, July 30, 2023, the 503 Kingston Road bus will operate between 6am and 1am (starting at 8am on Sundays) over its Bingham to York route.

Streetcars are expected to return in the fall, likely on Thanksgiving weekend. It is not yet clear whether the 503 streetcar will permanently replace the evening and weekend service formerly provided by the 22A Coxwell bus.

506 Carlton (Added July 1, 2023)

The 506 Carlton streetcar service will be cut back in the east end to Broadview rather than running east to Woodbine Loop. This will correct a problem with inadequate running time that caused many streetcars to short turn without getting to Woodbine Loop anyhow.

The map below shows the 506C bus diversion via Greenwood and Danforth around track construction at Coxwell and Lower Gerrard. This configuration will be in effect until mid-July when buses can again operate via Gerrard and Coxwell without diverting.

512 St. Clair

Effective Wednesday, July 5, 2023, the 512 St. Clair car will resume operation west to Gunns Loop. Construction at the GO Barrie corridor bridge west of Caledonia has been delayed allowing through service until August. The date when turnbacks at Lansdowne (Earlscourt Loop) will resume is not specified in the TTC announcement.

On the weekend of July 8-9, 2023, streetcar service will be suspended on at least part of the route (TBA) for the Salsa on St. Clair festival between Oakwood and St. Clair West Station.

Service on the temporarily extended 47 Lansdowne bus on St. Clair has been quite erratic. (Stay tuned for an analysis of this operation in coming days.)

Metro Morning June 27/23

On June 27, I was one of several guests on CBC’s Metro Morning doing “where do we go from here” pieces about newly elected Olivia Chow’s challenges as Mayor of Toronto.

The item was not posted on the show’s website, and so here for those who missed it is my own recording.

TTC 2024 Service Plan Consultation Round Two

The TTC is part way through production of its 2024 Service Plan as well as a 5-Year Service Plan and Customer Experience Action Plan. In Round Two, consultation will focus on plans for service changes triggered by major construction projects. Five pop-up sessions are planned at Flemingdon Park, Union Station, Liberty Village, Finch Terminal, and Pape Station between June 29 and July 12, 2023. Details are available here.

Also available on that page is a link to a survey seeking feedback on various proposals. Please note that my site is not an official TTC conduit for feedback, although it is no secret that many at the TTC do read articles and comments here. Any specific feedback for the TTC should be submitted through their own survey.

Round Three in August-September will present draft concepts for the 5-Year Plan and Customer Experience Action Plan, and these will be refined into final drafts for Round Four in October-November.

The remainder of this article presents an overview of the survey and proposals for construction-related service changes.

There are no proposals for new routes nor of overall service levels in this round. The election of Olivia Chow as Mayor will no doubt bring a review of existing services, but that is not in the scope of this round.

An important issue left over from the 2023 Budget process and the recent service cuts is the question of Service Standards. These are described as “Board Approved”, but in fact the 2023 changes were implemented by management as part of the budget with only retroactive consent from the Board. Moreover, the actual effect of the changes was withheld from the Board and Council until well after the budget was approved.

Transparency in budgets and service planning will be an important change looking ahead to 2024. With a new Mayor I hope to see a much improved process.

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TTC Cancels RFP For New Subway Trains (Updated)

A Request for Proposals for new subway trains has been cancelled due to lack of funding. The following notice was sent to all vendors on Friday, June 23:

The Toronto Transit Commission issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) on October 13, 2022 for the procurement of New Subway Trains.

The RFP indicated that the TTC was in the process of actively pursuing additional funding from other orders of government (Provincial and Federal), and that contract award was subject to receiving full funding commitments by early 2023. As detailed in item 1.2.2 – Funding Status of Part 1 – Invitation and Submission Instructions of the RFP document: “Timelines associated with this RFP have been communicated to potential funding partners, and a request for confirmation of funding by early 2023 has been requested. In order to receive the NST deliveries in time for the legacy fleet replacement and to meet growth needs, the TTC has elected to commence the procurement at this time, however, contract award is subject to receiving full funding commitments.”

Unfortunately, the additional funding required has not been secured and as such, TTC is cancelling the RFP effective immediately, and the Bonfire Portal will be closed.

The TTC will continue to have discussions with the Provincial and Federal governments on funding requirements for New Subway Trains and evaluate the requirements for issuance of a future Request for Pre-Qualification and Request for Proposals in the future.

Where this leaves future projects for enhancement of Line 2 Bloor-Danforth, conversion to Automatic Train Control and provision of full service on the Scarborough Subway Extension is anyone’s guess.

This is a project which was initially delayed by CEO Rick Leary in favour of a fleet rebuild, then reactivated as his attitude to the worth of ATC warmed with the success of the Line 1 conversion, a project very much the work of his predecessor Andy Byford and his team. The focus on spending for new lines has left major state of good repair such as fleet renewal high and dry, and this RFP cancellation show where that shortsighted policy has brought us.

I have reached out to TTC Media Relations for comment. This post will be updated as more information becomes available.

Updated June 26, 2023 at 3:45 pm

The TTC replied to my query for comment with the following:

As the posting says (or should), the purchase of the cars is contingent on funding being secured.

That has not yet happened, although discussions are ongoing.

This was about being transparent with bidders and letting them know that once funding is secure, we would re-post.

It is worth noting that as recently as the TTC Board meeting of June 12, 2023, there was no mention in the public session that this action was imminent. Here are the relevant pages from the Major Projects Update.

Updated June 26, 2023 at 5:00 pm

How many trains will the Scarborough Subway Extension require?

The TTC owns 370 cars in the T1 fleet which operates Line 2. That is equivalent to 61 6-car trains plus four spare cars.

The scheduled AM peak round trip time on the existing Line 2 is 105 minutes. For the maximum service possible with the existing signal and train control system, one train every 140 seconds, requires 45 trains. That was the AM Peak scheduled service in January 2020 before the pandemic-related service cuts. One additional train was on standby as a “gap” train for a total of 46. Allowing for spares at 20%, this requires a fleet of about 55 trains leaving only 6 spare for expansion.

The Scarborough extension is only marginally longer than the Line 1 extension from Eglinton to Finch with similar station spacing. A one-way trip on that part of Line 1 takes about 12 minutes, or 24 for the round trip. By analogy, that would make the round trip on the extended Line 2 about 129 minutes, and would required 55 trains with nothing left over for extras. Including spares at 20% would require a fleet larger than the TTC now owns.

Alternately, if every second train short turns at Kennedy Station leaving a 280 second service (4’40”) to Sheppard East, the line could probably operate with 50 trains which just fits within what is available.

One might argue that with a new fleet and the benefits of Automatic Train Control, overall speed could be improved and with that the fleet needed for full service to Sheppard could be reduced. But that is moot if TTC maintains the existing fleet.

When the SSE was planned, it had a pocket track east of Kennedy Station, but this was cut to save money, then it was restored. I wonder if someone is counting trains, or just hedging their bets on service levels beyond the existing terminus?

In any event, a failure to buy new trains has the double effect that it will condemn Line 2 to manual operation with an aging signal system for the foreseeable future, and will prevent the operation of full service beyond Kennedy in peak periods unless the Bloor-Danforth line never returns to the pre-pandemic peak service level.

Broadview Construction Update

With the reduced scope of track work planned at Broadview Station, there has been a change in the schedule of road closures. The City of Toronto issued a Construction Notice on June 9 stating that the sequence of events would now be:

  • July 4 to Early August: Track replacement from Gerrard to Sparkhall, plus the reconstruction of Montcrest Boulevard.
  • Mid August to Late September: Track replacement from Danforth to Sparkhall
    • The intersection of Danforth and Broadview will be done after the Taste of the Danforth event.
  • Late August/September: Track replacement on Broadview north of Danforth and on Erindale (this is the on-street portion of Broadview Station Loop).
  • Early October to Late November: Resurfacing of Broadview from Danforth to Gerrard.

The TTC’s construction project list shows streetcar service resuming in February 2024, but this might be out of date as there is no reason to delay this unless the project meets with unexpected problems. In any event, they hope to restore the 504/505 bus service on Broadview when conditions permit, and that would likely not be until after the track work is finished and there is enough space to fit buses onto the street.

Broadview will remain open to northbound traffic only from Gerrard with a single lane during the project. Local traffic will be allowed southbound until the street is blocked by construction in mid-July.

Here are photos of track welding on June 17, 2023. Rails are delivered by truck and joined into strings by a mobile arc welding unit. They will be pulled into place when after the trackbed has been excavated to expose the top of the steel ties installed here on the previous renewal. Thermite welds will be used to join the strings of rail when they are in place.

Why I Voted For Olivia Chow

Yes, dear readers, I have cast my ballot. My yellow envelope with a mail in ballot is safely in the hands of Toronto’s elections office.

Full disclosure: I have advised, pro bono, on some transit policy proposals for both Josh Matlow and Olivia Chow, but have not determined which were eventually adopted, if any.

My vote went to Olivia Chow for several reasons.

First, thanks to the absence of ranked ballots, I cannot pick candidates secure in knowing that if they don’t attract enough votes, my choice will go to someone else to my political liking. This time out, the job is to ensure Toronto stands up to Doug Ford’s gang at Queen’s Park and rejects the Tory cabal on City Council. I only get one vote, and it goes to Olivia.

If there were ranked ballots, I would have picked Josh Matlow first because he has been in the trenches for years, has a detailed platform and shows he can stand up to the Tory crowd. Sometimes over the top, yes, and he has a reputation for “not playing well with others”. I will take that any day over the back room dealing of Tory and any in his camp who yearn for the job.

Ana Bailão presents herself as a centrist, but her campaign started off with the prince of darkness himself, Nick Kouvalis, a long-time associate of the Fords, and a pack of development industry supporters. When on Council, she supported Tory’s fiscal program, and I have no faith in a miraculous conversion.

Mitzie Hunter has a full platform, but not, as I have written in a platform review, one that is as “fully costed” as she would have us believe. Some revenue sources she touts are already spoken for, including for transit, and to present the money as if it’s just looking for a home is, as they say in parliamentary circles, misleading.

She also flip-flopped in the past on support for Transit City in order to ride the subway bandwagon to a seat at Queen’s Park. Her embrace of the “Scarborough deserves” trope might have some foundation, given how voters there have been played for support by pols for over a decade, but as Mayor of all the city, there is a need to see other districts that deserve attention too.

Brad Bradford I know from his days on the TTC Board, and we would speak regularly about coming items on the agenda. But he rarely delivered advocacy and settled into accepting the management line, something that desperately needs to be changed at that organization. It is not the Board’s function to direct day-to-day decisions, but the Board should set policy and demand accountability.

As a candidate, Bradford has embraced the safety issue and speaks as someone right of Tory, not as someone I could imagine being even moderately right of centre. He also embraces the strong mayor powers to get things done. That path is both undemocratic and an opportunity for very bad, unchecked decisions.

Mark Saunders is Doug Ford’s candidate, and on that basis alone, cannot be trusted. Moreover, he is known both for substantially dismantling the machinery of police traffic enforcement, for his blind eye on a major serial killer case that wrecked his credibility with the gay community, and for a paid advisory role to Ford on the Ontario Place privatization. He is unworthy of consideration.

Returning to Olivia Chow, I believe that criticism of her detailed platform as rather thin is valid, but I am willing to believe there is room for improvement. A major problem with the past decade and more at Council is that policy debates begin with the tax increase (or lack of it), rather than with determining what we actually need and what has top priority. Departments and agencies were given budget targets, and they generally do not present a “Plan B” for what might be done with more money.

That brings at best “business as usual” plans, or trimming in the name of “efficiency” often without revealing the actual effect of budget cuts. The sham of the 2023 TTC budget process was disgusting. Details of service changes that were already designed in January were withheld from the TTC Board and Council until long after any alternate policy might have been adopted. We might not be able to afford all of the service we want, but we should know what is really on the chopping block, and what the cost of alternatives might be.

Simply having an open, frank discussion will put council and citizens in a much better position both to know what is possible, and to defend calls for better funding and new revenue streams. That is a path I hope Chow will follow, and with Matlow as a trusted ally on Council.

A Few Decades of TTC Stats (Updated)

This post is intended as historical background to debates on ridership, fleet and mileage trends, together with breakdowns of Operating and Capital Subsidies. The data here come from TTC Annual Reports and Financial Statements.

Updated with charts of various factors compared to the Consumer Price Index, and with a chart of surface vehicle average speed.

Ridership, Fares and Revenue/Cost Ratio

TTC’s ridership enjoyed a long continuous climb after the recession of the early 1990s until about 2015 when the annual trip count hit a plateau and then declined. After a slight uptick in 2019, the pandemic hit and ridership plummeted bottoming out in 2021.

Over the period from 1986 to 2022, the basic adult fare climbed at a steady pace in spite of fare freezes from time to time. The dotted line in the middle chart is a linear trend line which lies quite neatly along the fare values. Note that the basic adult fare is not the same as the average fare, and that discount schemes including passes and time-based transfers can blunt the effect of a fare increase for some riders.

The Revenue/Cost Ratio comes up often in debates, but the value is often misquoted. That is not hard to do as the value has bounced around ever since the initial “Davis formula” of the early 1970s. In that period, the agreement was that TTC’s self-generated revenue (fares and other income such as parking lots and news stand rents) would pay 2/3 of the total, while the remaining 1/3 would be split between the City and the Province. In practice, this never quite worked for a few reasons:

  • The Province rarely agreed on what constituted an expense they should subsidize, and in practice their percentage of the total “wobbled” around the 1/6 level from year-to-year.
  • Both the Province and City could effectively dictate the total TTC spending by pegging their contributions. If the Province was feeling stingy, the only option the City had to beef up TTC support was to break from the agreed formula.

The early 1990s recession was followed by the arrival of Premier Mike Harris who slashed transit subsidies. This drove up the R/C ratio until the City began investing more money in operating subsidies. The value has bounced around in the 70-75% range for about a decade, but was allowed to fall somewhat in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 onward, the ridership losses drove the R/C ratio below 30% for a time.

Note that “revenue” includes miscellaneous income such as parking fees and subway shop rentals which account for about 5% of the total. Therefore the proportion from fares is about 5% lower than the R/C value shown in the chart.

Updated: A chart showing the Adult Fare vs the Consumer Price Index has been added below. It is quite clear that the rate of increase of fares (the slope of the orange line) has been running ahead of the CPI (the slope of the blue line) for several decades.

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