With all the hoopla surrounding the launch of service on the Union-Pearson Express (aka UPX or UP Express), it was refreshing to learn today from no less than the CEO of Metrolinx, Bruce McCuaig, that the line will never cover its costs.
Cast your mind back to the days of Prime Minister Chrétien and his Transport Minister, David Collonette (1997-2003). They had a dream of an express train from Union Station to Pearson Airport, a service that would be built, owned and operated at no cost to the government through the magic of private enterprise. SNC Lavalin was to be the lucky proprietor.
Things didn’t quite work out. SNC Lavalin discovered that the cost recovery for “Blue 22” as it was called in the early days simply didn’t pan out, and they looked for government support. When the Tories came to power, Ottawa’s love for this project waned, and they dumped it … right into the willing lap of Dalton McGuinty who embraced the scheme as a way for Ontario to show the world what we’re made of. Don’t be the last city without an air rail link! The matter was especially crucial as part of the Pan Am Games bid — there would be an express train to the airport.
Alas, the numbers still didn’t work, and SNC Lavalin looked to Queen’s Park for financial support. McGuinty showed them the door, and that might have been the end of things but for the usual Ontario hubris. The project became a public sector job 100%, but there was still the sense that it wouldn’t be a burden on the taxpayer.
On Friday, June 5, 2015, the Star’s Tess Kalinowski had an online Q&A with Bruce McCuaig, and it was quite revealing.
When will the line be electrified?
“The recent provincial budget set aside funding for Regional Express Rail, which includes electrification of the corridors, including UPX. We are folding the UPX electrification into the electrification of the Kitchener corridor as far as Bramalea, and we expect electrification to start being operational on five of the lines in 2023.”
There was a time when electrification was promised for only a few years after UPX began operation. Clearly, this is not going to happen even on a small scale for 8 years, let alone a full buildout. Whether there will even be a government left in office willing to undertake this project remains to be seen.
Back in September 2014, McCuaig claimed that the government’s promised electrification within 10 years was possible. Hmmm. Maybe a few kilometers here and there, but certainly not the full buildout if they’re only going to start in 2023. After a burst of election fever and enthusiasm for electrified GO services, Queen’s Park is getting cool, if not cold feet.
What about additional stations?
“We are building in plans for a new GO station and UPX station into the construction contract for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The Crosstown phase 1 ends at Mount Dennis and I think it would be a great place to have an interchange to give people more choice. At Woodbine, we have done what transit planners call “protect” for a potential future station.
…
“More stations connected in to the subway (like Dundas West/Bloor) and a future location at Mount Dennis means you can access the service at a lower cost. The trip from Dundas West/Bloor to the airport will have a fare of $15.20 if you use your PRESTO card”
It’s nice to know that Metrolinx still implies that the Crosstown will have a “phase 2”, although the almost certainly lower fare on this local transit service would make one wonder why one would choose to transfer off of the Crosstown and onto UPX, especially at a premium fare. As for the fare from Dundas West, it might just be a tolerable alternative to the 192 Airport Rocket from Kipling Station once Metrolinx builds a convenient link from the UPX station to the subway. The current arrangement is not exactly a “first class” link the fare would imply.
How many riders will UPX need to break even, and will it pay off its capital costs?
We plan to have the fare box for UPX cover its operating costs within three to five years. As you would expect, it will take a few years to build the ridership, just like any other system. We are not expecting fares to pay back the capital costs at this time. The province has invested the $456 million in the capital and it would be unusual in a North American context to expect customers to pay back the capital cost through their fares. I don’t know off the top of my head how many riders per day will be needed for cost recovery, but we do expect that level of ridership by year three to five.
So let’s get this straight: what started out as a sure thing for the private sector will take maybe three years just to reach a break-even state on operating costs. This also happens to be the period by which Metrolinx expects ridership to stabilize, and one wonders just how much room for growth in demand and revenue there will be beyond that. As for capital costs, oh we could never expect passengers to pay those. No wonder SNC Lavalin wanted a subsidy.
By the way, remember that phrase the next time someone tries to slip capital-from-current spending into an operating budget as John Tory did this year with the TTC’s bus purchase.
What we don’t know is the amount of subsidy the UPX will divert from other transit needs within GO or other transit systems. There will inevitably be pressure to bring fares on UPX down, especially if service in the corridor is combined with a route like SmartTrack. Then there is the small matter that UPX is a separate division complete with its own president. This is rather like having a President of the Scarborough RT except that Line 3 carries nearly 40,000 riders a day, more than UPX can physically handle if it were packed from 6am to midnight.
I will be magnanimous. Get the line open. Enjoy Balzac’s coffee in the station. Thrill to the glorious view of Toronto’s former industrial might along the rail corridor. Impress the hell out of those Pan Am visitors (although of course the officials and athletes have limos and buses and reserved lanes on expressways for their delicate sensibilities).
Once the games are over, let’s get serious about the money we have invested in the Weston/Georgetown corridor and figure out how to run an actual transit service that caters to more than the well-off who can afford to pay extra for a fast ride downtown.
Steve Munro 
Should be a very nice service. Good pricing, if you want to cheap out or can’t afford the ticket, 3 bucks from Kipling Sub is also a great deal so a win-win. Cannot wait to ride the line. I do not think it will ‘divert’ any other transit funds because there are no other transit funds, ie if UP did pay for itself, government being government will not dump more money (ie savings) into more transit. This is what I do not understand with Scar. I’m all for LRT but if Scar subway costs 3 billion, no more $$ for transit, however if LRT instead that only costs 1 billion, no more $$ for transit. Gov does not have the extra 2 bill because it never existed, just borrowed or diverted from libraries, or parks etc. So that supposed $$ will not go into transit. Let’s just enjoy new cars, new lines.
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It’s curious that 2 of those questions were mine.
But your conclusion is apt. They can have their coming out party. We’ll enjoy the new infrastructure on opening day.
Then, we’ll send in the auditor general and start asking some questions about the UP Express and Metrolinx too.
It is time to take a serious look at the Metrolinx Board, restructure it to ensure some local accountability, and remove the Board members who know nothing and ask nothing. No more sinecures and no more agendas.
Cheers, Moaz
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Steve, considering the cost of a limousine or taxi, the cost of the UPX is not that bad. The only downside is that you have to take it to one of three specific stations.
Steve: And that’s not a trivial downside. Unless your destination works well with those stations, you face a transfer between UPX and TTC (where are the Kennedy Station trolls when we need them?) and may have actually gone out of your way to use UPX.
Don’t forget that even at the UPX fares, Metrolinx will be losing money, and this is not the wonderful “private sector investment” it was originally portrayed to be.
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Your comments show how fiscally incompetent the Liberals at both the federal and provincial level are. Your comment also shows how fiscally wise the federal Tories are which is exactly why I would vote for them this Fall. The federal Tories dumped the project because they knew that the project would never break even.
Steve: Well let’s just remember that after Bill Davis canned the Spadina Expressway, rather then building transit we needed, the Tory government set up a development agency to tout a technology that was unworkable for local transit — maglev trains. This eventually morphed into the SRT technology, another boondoggle that did not bring the promised low-cost transit to Toronto, let alone establish Ontario as a world-beating provider of technology.
As for the miracle of P3s, you cannot propose construction of a dog house, let alone a rapid transit line, for Ottawa funding unless the work goes to a private sector firm, underwritten by federal dollars.
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Alternately, can we have a clear agenda, and get the others off the table. Transit that will provide a wide support across most of the region in a rapid manner. That should be the agenda and the test – for all. I do not give a rats ass about RER, subway, LRT, or streetcar for that matter, only what they will do, and where they will make the largest difference. The province, and cities need to start focusing on service based promises, and push the BS of subway or whatever off the table, and let the experts in transit and planning choose the mode and its location.
Steve: Queen’s Park just announced four new Metrolinx board members, two of whom are former municipal politicians — Bill Fisch from York Region and Carl Zehr from KW. The problem with the board is as much that it is on a short leash from the Minister’s office where all of the important decisions and announcements are made, complete with photo ops.
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I’m a five minute walk from the Bloor Station. (It’s actually slightly faster and more convenient to reach Dundas West or Keele subway stations from my house.) You’d think I’d be cheering that I’ve now got front-door access to an express line to the airport. No. It’s too damned expensive. I don’t care if it’s quicker than the TTC. There is virtually nothing that enormously inflated fare gives me in exchange, especially since I wouldn’t be starting from Union. I’ll take a $6 round-trip over a $42 one no matter what unless maybe the subway is shut down. Even the “Meeter & Greeter” return fare is too high ($22). They also couldn’t be bothered to even finish the Bloor Station properly in time for the opening. What a joke.
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I’m close to Weston station, also still under construction, but I do plan to ride the UP downtown now and then. The PRESTO fare is $19 bucks between Union and Weston, that’s alright compared to taking a cab, and much quicker than taking the subway and bus. Still, I’d prefer regular GO service on the line as that would suit my needs and be cheaper still. Where do we stand on expanding GO service on lines other than Lakeshore East/West?
Steve: There have been various announcements of more service, but no specifics as to dates.
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Great ride today gang – 25 minutes to Union, smooth ride, fast, trains look great too. I’m gonna use this a lot. Lot of folks there today.
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Just finished riding the UPX with my family this morning (my wife and daughter are on the star.com getting off the train) and I’m not terribly impressed.
I think it charitable to include Union in UPX as we actually left the building. Not what I would call a quick connection. It’s like saying a train is going to Paddington but you actually embark/disembark at King’s Cross.
I got on the train and I thought the train had been taken over by the Soviet/Russian military. The full uniform on this poor women was INSANE. It was literally something out of a NATO OPFOR intelligence document.
The most depressing thing is the vast amount of infrastructure that was built and only 3 tracks are in place – 2 of them for an ultra premium fare limited stop service, running 2 DMU’s at 15 minute intervals – while GO and VIA make do with a single track. This gives an indication of how valued transit riders are by metrolinx/the provincial government.
I was almost distraught when we went under Islington Avenue, right before Kipling GO, the right of way is constrained to only 3 tracks – max, and I didn’t see any indication it would be widened or how it would be done without removing an adjoining road/ramp.
I saw the metrolinx CEO and I just wanted to lay in to him, but I would just be some random nutter to him – I truly despair.
Steve: FYI at the press tour, they were very proud of the uniforms, done by a designer of note, don’t ya know? I agree, they look like something designed to look drab.
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I was reminded of the old DDR border Guards’ uniforms.
UPX uniform
versus East German border guard uniform
or perhaps the East German Volksarmee uniform
Steve: I think that the Germans did it better. “Pretentious” does not begin to describe my feelings about how UPX presents itself.
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At the risk of sounding like I’m playing devil’s advocate, I can’t help but wonder what would the province do in the unlikely event that UPX turns out to be much more popular than they expect and they hit their capacity limit fairly quickly. For example, would they actually raise fares in an attempt to discourage ridership if that happens?
Steve: There was actually talk during the development of UPX that the fare had to be artificially high to discourage ridership. That is the sort of twisted logic that presents itself as “planning” in some quarters.
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So — why is the federal government ready to put $660,000,000.00 into the Scarborough Subway Scheme, despite an increasing number of analyses and bad numbers?
Another broader point – we still need to expand our thinking to how cars and trucks are also getting a batch of subsidy, and indeed, the IMF came out with a stunning statement about the overall subsidies to fossil fuels.
Part of their concern is climate change; and this is a switch. Here, along with being climate laggards and being somewhat of a pariah, we’re plowing big bucks into massively bad GHG source. And it’s a shame air travel is quite unsustainable.
What’s happened is a sad relative waste of a corridor, and rare opportunity for good transit. Some good news – we’ve got the corridor; maybe it can be adapted; and the UPX isn’t radioactive, (though radwaste is part of electricity here btw, also not counted for, including storage … ).
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Is this really going to happen? There was some suggestion that there might be brief surges when a 747 or A380 arrives at Pearson but I suspect that most people will continue using taxis, Park N Fly or bus route 192. The UP Express doesn’t save any significant amount of time compared to the 192 if you are going to anywhere on or north of Bloor. I’m sure that extending the Eglinton LRT would cause UP Express ridership to go down a large amount. In that Toronto Star online chat I asked whether the Eglinton LRT was planned to be extended to the airport and the response mentioned Tory’s ridiculous “SmartTrack” proposal.
Also for some bizarre reason GO Transit’s website does not mention that the UP Express exists. If you click the “Going to the Airport” link in the “Travelling with Us” menu it only mentions the GO bus service that goes to the airport. This doesn’t make sense. This has got to be one of the easiest ways to promote the UP Express.
Steve: Well, of course, UPX was not given to GO and as far as they are concerned it does not exist. It certainly has no fare integration, and appears to be staffed at a ridiculous level relative to demand when compared to GO. I’m just as happy to have UPX off by its own where the financial disaster it will be can be obvious to everyone.
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Hi Steve:-
So I am surprised that there are now 11 comments and not one of them has alluded to downtrodden, disenfranchised Scarborough not having access to this UPX service. By adding an ‘S’ to it and a wee extension of the route out to at least Kennedy station, oh wait that’s not far enough for some in Scarborough is it because one poster had said that Scarborough doesn’t have a subway, so the BD line that has stops at Vic Park, Warden and Kennedy is not Scarborough enough for him/her, they want more. So maybe it has to go to Agincourt to be a viable Scarborough service. The stations are already there so what’s the problem with an express run to Kennedy and Agincourt with a wee DMU train?
Now we can satisfy the Scarboroughites with an SUPX. A 60.00+ dollar fare to Pearson might just make them feel that they can be as indulged as the rest of Metro.
Oh I know, we’ll have to build them high level platforms won’t we! Ah well, that’s another many years while the studies are done, environmental impacts decided, plans poured over and finalized, contracts let, delays and overruns allowed for and photo ops scheduled and shot before a train could actually stop out there. My oh my what an ordeal those poor, unloved Scarborough residents must endure just to be on the same map as the privileged. Sad isn’t it???
And what about me? I’m an East Yorker and we don’t have access either. Too too many transfers to get to the UPX. Transfers as we know are the panacea of what passes for transit planning in Scarborough, so I want a station at Shopper’s World Danforth, the most southerly point in East York. Then I can be included amongst the entitled elite of Metro. We never ever did get the streetcar line promised us when York Railways was established, so let’s get with it Metro and right that historical wrong inflicted on us in those mean-hearted twenties.
Signed by Tongue in Cheek; or maybe not,
Dennis
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Although I’m also disappointed to hear that the UPX won’t be able to cover its construction costs, I don’t think it’s necessary to be all that pessimistic about it. Unlike other things the government has spent $500m on (like on a G20 meeting or on not building some gas plants), this is actually a useful piece of infrastructure. And though the fares are high, it’s priced in such a way as to not bleed money everywhere in the future, unlike certain subway lines.
It does fulfil a legitimate transportation role in the region. It replaces the role of the downtown private airport shuttles, which also cost around $20, and which shut down last year because downtown traffic was so bad that it wasn’t really viable any more. Those airport shuttles weren’t even necessarily just for business people either. Pearson is the regional airport for the GTA and beyond. People coming from as far away as Kingston and London now have the option of taking trains all the way to the airport. It might even save us from having to build a new airport in Pickering for another decade or two.
The main benefit of the UPX though is that it actually got built. I seriously doubt we would have all those new train tracks running through west Toronto without the excuse of the UPX. In 5-10 years time when all the pomp of the Pan Am games are over, UPX will be merged into Metrolinx, and there will be a “strategic reorganization” of some sort, and those extra train tracks will be a key part of some transportation plan, whether it’s for regional express trains, SmartTrack, or something else.
Steve: I tend to agree with you, but for a sense that the “reorganization” will arrive much sooner than 5 years out.
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Although I really preferred that UPX be a subway, there’s an unexpected factor: What if UPX exceeds projections by a huge factor?
There were lots of people milling about. Most looked like they were carrying baggage/backpacks (not all shown in photo), so only a small proportion were the free-ticket riders. Time will tell as to traffic growth. They launched June 6 on a quiet day intentionally to iron out kinks.
Many media have gone on the early trains on Launch Day, when they were only a quarter-full, with some empty trains. Obviously, first trains departing Pearson before first flight will have nobody (or only few aboard), and the last trains departing Union after final departing flight of day will also have almost nobody. No matter how successful UPX is, there will always be near-empty trains.
However, the trains move over 7 million available seats per year (both directions, total), at 19.5 hours per day, 4 trains per day, 120 seats per train, 365 days a year. This goes to ~10 million available seats if all trains upgraded to 3-car trains (180 seats) to accomodate peak surges, and the projections only talk of numbers 2 or 3 million people to break even, This is not even accounting for standees, which has already happened this weekend on the “busiest UPX train of the day”, even though trains in the opposite direction were much emptier.
I found some numbers where including amortization at 7% per year, average 150 seats per train (half fleet 2-car and 3-car), average price $23 per paying passenger (some Presto and some full fare), UPX only needs to be about 38% full to break even. If you remove the amortization, UPX needs to be less than 15% full to break even. I doublechecked other transit services (and TTC/Metrolinx is known to have very good farebox recovery, on a North American perspective), and inflating the numbers with a “puffed premium cost”, I could not get annual operating costs near half of the oft-quoted $68-$70M per annum without including amortization. The quoted $70M annual operating costs, thusly, definitely includes amortization, even when doubling the per-employee cost compared to TTC or GO trains.
London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong has overpriced airport expresses, but also cheap train services. All of their airport train services have returned a profit despite being half-empty a lot of the time. However, Pearson only has dark underpass taxi/limo/bus departures, compared to the nice bright quick UPX. Airports are known captive audiences, and many would prefer $19.50 on a relaxing scenic ride.
I think projections are going to be easily exceeded as everyone is currently understating them (even the auditor) in a gloom-and-doom sky-is-falling scenario.
I agree on better public transit options, and on cheaper prices. But…
Although I truly have mixed feelings about UPX, my feeling is some people are going to be surprised how profitable UPX will become. While I generally agree with Steve Munro about the questionable original merits of UPX, I have to say I think the reputational level of this particular Steve Munro post is a little risky and premature. In hindsight, this might be one of Steve Munro’s biggest miscalculated posts, I think. Maybe not, but.
Steve: I have to go by the statements made by Metrolinx’ CEO that the financial situation does not look good. The projections you are citing, if I remember, came from the same sort of half-baked consulting work that brought us SmartTrack. Until we get past the novelty of a new line, I won’t take ridership numbers as indicative.
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Another UPX station photo.
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Bags, bags, bags, not free-ticket-wielding railfans.
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Metrolinx chose June 6 as a quiet day to iron out kinks. By all accounts, it seemed to exceed even Metrolinx’s projections, even though they intentionally knew there were going to be many empty trains and tried to compensate that by giving away 1,500 free tickets, since free ticket holders will complain less.
Word was received Metrolinx was concerned about OC Transpo bungled launch and planned carefully to launch on a quiet day, and to use free tickets to try to simulate a busy day, as a kind of a public beta.
However, the whisper word is that it appear it exceeded Metrolinx’s first day actual-passenger-traveller projections.
Wait till everyone knows about the service — talking to a local torontoian or average foriegner they didn’t know UPX has launched, until they were asked about it.
I think many are truly going to be surprised how profitable UPX actually ends up being. The empty Union York concourse is deceiving (lack of basement retail, PATH, still-suboptimal TTC connections, labyrinth Bay maze) but the captive audience of Pearson isn’t deceptive, and all indications are UPX is probably a more profitable than expected service.
This is mostly anecdotal, but the photographic evidence, plus my knowledge how quiet the first expresses in Tokyo/London were at first, before growing in ridership, make me feel that the “UPX failure” tooters are a bit premature.
This does not detract from Steve Munro’s rightful assertion that this SHOULD have been a public transit service, even if UPX is almost definitely profitable.
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Does TTC or GO break even?
Probably not.
Say 25 % of costs are subsidized.
In Europe/Japan which have excellent mass transit the subsidy is higher. Ditto for the USA.
And the Airport Express (or comparable RER) that is in the cities that have one are in the same basket.
Now in Berlin, because of history the airport is close to the downtown area (and that airport is a bit dated) they provide a regular city. The best buy anywhere.
Steve: And your point is? Remember that UPX was originally touted as a no-cost-to-the-public project that a private company would happily build and finance. They walked away because they couldn’t get a subsidy. I am thrilled for those who can use UPX that they have the service, and are willing to pay for it, but considering the other projects Toronto has needed, and that Queen’s Park has sandbagged through its meddling, I have a hard time swallowing a subsidy for UPX.
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I think you may be surprised to hear that I think Steve is wrong here.
Steve: I am quoting the CEO of Metrolinx on that statement. Are you telling me he does not know what he is talking about? That was the story — that even Metrolinx knows UPX will lose money. You should read more carefully.
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When UPX launched, a lot of railfans and media showed up for the free rides, and the trains were empty on Saturday morning. Rightfully so — Metrolinx wanted to launch on a quiet day, and this was the quieter morning of a quiet day.
Many media reports of empty trains, 25% full trains, means there are many media jumping to conclusions quickly. I still fondly remember the media reports of failure on the other expensive airport trains, followed by “exceeded projections” news reports. I think UPX will succeed a little quicker than most of the others because of the lack of a parallel cheap subway (like London’s).
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I tried out UPX today coming from the Mount Pleasant and Eglinton area. Once I got to the train it was a very pleasant experience. The uniforms were indeed a bit odd. I’m not sure if they remind me more of the aforementioned Soviet/DDR drabness or a Heritage Moment version of old-timey train uniforms. Still, the staff were pleasant. The numbers on the train were not overwhelming. No one got on or disembarked at Weston.
Of course, electing to take UPX to the airport was far from the most efficient route today. Since the Yonge line between Bloor and York Mills was closed due to signal work, I had to take the 34 west to Eglinton Station where I transferred to the 32 to Eglinton West. Miraculously I made it to the southbound train at the last second. The extra bus ride from Yonge to the subway added at least 30 minutes to my trip, and possibly more if you factor in the longer journey on the Spadina line. Interestingly, the subway ended up getting to Union faster since an inexplicable power outage meant that it bypassed St Clair West, Dupont, and Spadina stations.
The real problem comes at Union where you first must traverse the “trench” between the subway station and the GO concourse. Next you must walk toward the VIA concourse, then up the stairs to the Union lobby, and finally for another five minutes along the Skywalk. I don’t mind the walk exactly – though it’s pretty long – but the multiple flights of stairs are not friendly to anyone carrying much luggage. Fortunately I had only one suitcase, but a “transfer” that amounts to nearly having to walk to the CN Tower is neither convenient nor quick.
(To be fair, it’s better than the transfer from the Piccadilly Line or Heathrow Express at LHR. But then using Heathrow as any kind of standard for “airport convenience” is setting a pretty low bar.)
Anyway, in the end my flight was cancelled, so I’m staying at a hotel with a direct view of the UPX line. They don’t look especially full.
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Why are we talking about the UPX not breaking even? When will the multibillion dollar new streetcars break even? Why don’t you talk about that? UPX is public transit and as such should not be expected to break even. Please note that I support the new streetcars but am just stating that to show how outrageous you sound when you speak of UPX not breaking even when hardly any public transit project ever breaks even (see new streetcars for example).
Steve: The reason for the discussion is that once upon a time, UPX was promoted as a private sector project that would require no public funding. This fell apart years ago, but the degree to which even with premium fares the line will not cover operating costs for 3-5 years, and never pay back the capital investment, shows how foolhardy that claim was. When we undertake any public project, something-for-nothing claims must be examined closely lest we commit to “free” systems that cost us more once we have no choice. An obvious example today is the Scarborough Subway Extension which was going to cost “only” $500m more than the LRT plan, but has blown past that number some time ago with more additions being openly discussed. Would Ontario actually have gone into the UPX project knowing how much it would cost, and if it were not a vanity project for McGuinty rescuing it from his defeated Liberal cousins in Ottawa?
I don’t think I sound outrageous at all when I simply attempt to hold a project to its original premise. With billions of future projects sitting on the table, knowing just what we will get and how much it will really cost is a vital part of public debate. UPX failed miserably to live up to its original promises.
By the way, a related part of the interview showed us that the “promise” of electrification has now drifted off to 2023 when, quite likely, nobody in government will still be around to be held accountable. We lost a chunk of Transit City the same way with Queen’s Park arbitrarily shifting deadlines.
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The train stops at Kipling? Or was this a special run?
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A Malton-to-Airport shuttle would have solved the problem for VIA riders from London and Sarnia via Kitchener (trains 85 86 87 88) and some GO riders a fraction of the cost (to riders as well as the government). In fact I still think VIA should run one despite UPX. I’d say perhaps VIA could pay MiWay or TTC to run a bus but I don’t think anyone is in the mood for more spending on an airport link.
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I am personally very much of the mind that a huge effort should have been made to create a real hub just off the airport .The Malton GO would meet that requirement. The airport rail then should have been extended to that. A hugely expanded Malton GO would then have been a real mobility hub.
The need, is to provide a high frequency link to the core, for the entire airport grounds and the area beyond, with some real capacity, as well as a couple of links to other areas. Creating a real hub, and access to the airport and employment district from beyond, and the rest of the city would have a far larger impact on congestion, and development, than a line that serves strictly the airport proper from the core only. This rail link could still serve the core, and Union passengers, just not be exclusive to them.
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Serious question, is there a transit service that breaks even in Canada or North America for the matter? I mean I think we all know they were just fooling themselves to believe it would break even. But I’m guessing an rail airport link still would of been built either way. And lets be honest here, $456 million amounts to a drop in the bucket when compared to other recent transit expansion projects some of which are far more dubious.
Steve: As I have said before, the issue is that this was originally to be a no-cost project for construction and operation, and on that basis, it did not have to compete with other priorities for funding. That turned out to be a misrepresentation, and the line will consume funds that might have gone elsewhere. It is the principle of bait-and-switch, not the question of whether any transit service can make money.
“The current arrangement is not exactly a “first class” link the fare would imply.”
Well we can’t exactly blame that one on them. As I’m sure you’re well aware, they’ve been trying to build that connection for a long time now but the building owner simply refuses to play ball.
Steve: If Metrolinx were serious, the Expropriations Act would have come into play some time ago. This is not just a question of a link for UPX but for services in the Weston corridor giving much better access to the Bloor subway.
“Re: the reserved lanes on expressways”
I was under the impression that these lanes were temporary HOV lanes, has this changed?
Steve: Yes, they are temporary. My whole point is that UPX will not serve the Poo-Bahs and the athletes attending the games, only the tourists.
I do agreed with your point about the UP being a separate division. There’s absolutely no need for that.
“and appears to be staffed at a ridiculous level relative to demand when compared to GO”
This is true as well. IIRC the train crew is practically the same as one for a typical GO train. Two train operators with the CSA is replaced by the GSR, for a train that can seat 173 people vs one that can seat 10 times as much. Should only be two, either cut the second TO who I understand is just a conductor or cut off the on board GSR, not needed for a 25 min ride.
Jamie, from what I’ve read elsewhere the plan is to build another underpass/tunnel in the future for the 4th track under the 401.
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As I’m sure you’re well aware, they’ve been trying to build that connection for a long time now but the building owner simply refuses to play ball.
What is the desired connection? It might be possible to construct a tunnel depending on depth. Landowners in Ontario have only surface rights, unless they stake the property and put in a given amount of money to mineral exploration continually. Even, so don’t think its possible to stake in Toronto. Basically, the guy has no title to what’s beneath his lowest subfloor.
What you might be able to do is extend the Dundas W platforms into the tunnel to a point under the Bloor GO station, then sink an elevator or stairwell shaft.
Steve: Have you seen the drawings of this I posted some years ago? Look in particular at the “section” drawing which shows the relationship of the station platform to the building above and the location of the GO platform.
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At $19, using a PRESTO card, the cost is thus comparable to the shuttle bus that existed. Perhaps lower fares would be nice, but it all comes down to demand vs. supply. Once we have some real numbers (I am sorry but a projection of the number of passengers is not the same thing as real customers) then we will know if the price should go up (because a lot of people use the service) or down (to get more people on it.)
All I know is that even with a GO train trip included, the cost of using UPX is $20 less than a limo or taxi home from the airport – something I keep mentioning to people I know, and I am surprised more people don’t want to admit to.
Steve: And there is no problem with that price comparison provided that you live near a UPX station. Otherwise, for your extra limo/taxi fare, you get door-to-door service, an important consideration with luggage, children, etc. For me, the marginal cost of getting to the airport via TTC is zero because I have a Metropass.
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This train has no capacity. A two car train to a huge airport. With max capacity expansion to 3 car trains?? This will not put a dent in auto traffic. UPX won’t be useful enough for its cost. It’s a train, you build railways and trains to handle massive amounts of traffic. A few buses could easily replace this tiny train.
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That’s what I was thinking, except with the escalator(s) moved east to clear the property line. Doesn’t leave much room for a fare booth but you could fit a token/metropass machine.
So what does the owner of the Crossways have against this? There’s no connection to the building. Does he want one, or does he just want money?
Steve: Just being ornery as far as I know.
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Kipling GO is on the CP line at Kipling Subway Station. There is NO KIPLING Station on the Kitchener lines. There is an Etobicoke North Station at Kipling. UP express branches off west of here according to their map.
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It occurred to me that there are other ways to measure the success of the UPX. Convention planners want to know that their destination city has a number of amenities. An airport link might not be a deal breaker, but it makes it easier to sell the benefits of locating in Toronto. The same goes for the city’s economic development department pitching businesses to locate here. Cisco’s decision to locate in the south core was likely helped along, knowing there would be easy airport access.
Steve: And a typical “deal” for conventions is the ability to make bulk purchases of fares. No question that there are markets at which UPX can be targeted. As for Cisco and South Core, I suspect the creature comforts of downtown, including the Island airport, were at least as important as UPX. One could have an office practically inside the airport out in the commercial/industrial strips nearby, but nobody would want to work there.
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What was with the silly Star article today? Sought to prove what was faster to the airport from east end, car, TTC or UP. Turns out UP is faster IF you get to it first, TTC not bad, but the car gets you there the fastest. Why are the Star promoting the car? Of course the car gets you anywhere faster and lots of room for family, groceries, purchases etc. But why does the STAR throw this in everyone’s face? They are supposed to be promoting transit, not cars.
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When you have limited funds, the place to put those funds is where they will have the biggest bang for the buck. I don’t think that UPX was the biggest bang for the buck. The Scarborough subway is rectifying a problem that was created when the SRT was built. It should have been an extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway from the start.
So the question remains, if we have say $2 Billion in funding, where would be the best place to invest that money, to service the most passengers. It’s most likely to run a LRT line along Sheppard West to Downsview.
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You know, I thought he was talking about Etobicoke North station but no one else said anything so I figured it might have been a special run.
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So I also took advantage of the free tickets and took my first and likely only UP EXPRESS ride (seeing as how I live in Mississauga).
My observations we’re similar to everyone else’s. Since I went with an infant and 4 year old we paid a few visits to the toilet, which was nice enough for what we had to do there.
Since we ended up staying later than expected at the airport we skipped the return UPExpress trip and took the MiExpress 107 to the City Centre transit terminal where we picked up our connecting bus home after a wait of a few minutes.
This is the MiWay “information” pole at the bus bay in front of the Alt Hotel, near the Viscount parking garage and at the end of the LINK train.
Now … I know there is a GO bus (31H if I recall correctly) that stops at Malton GO station. Is there any reason why this GO bus could not pull off the 427 on to the 409 and stop at the Viscount Rd bus bay before heading up to Malton GO?
Since 2 way all-day service isn’t going to be coming for a while, this is the next best option for “fast” transit between Union and Pearson(ish) at a middling price.
Cheers, Moaz
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Or they could have done what they were planning to do originally … terminate the subway at Warden and then use light rail for further service into Scarborough. Then maybe Scarborough would have that light rail network it should have had in the 1970s.
Cheers, Moaz
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The 34 buses have a variety of on street stops in the area depending on branch. The 34 and 34B serve the terminals via airport road but drive right past Malton GO. That’s to me some pretty low hanging fruit.
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