With all the hoopla surrounding the launch of service on the Union-Pearson Express (aka UPX or UP Express), it was refreshing to learn today from no less than the CEO of Metrolinx, Bruce McCuaig, that the line will never cover its costs.
Cast your mind back to the days of Prime Minister Chrétien and his Transport Minister, David Collonette (1997-2003). They had a dream of an express train from Union Station to Pearson Airport, a service that would be built, owned and operated at no cost to the government through the magic of private enterprise. SNC Lavalin was to be the lucky proprietor.
Things didn’t quite work out. SNC Lavalin discovered that the cost recovery for “Blue 22” as it was called in the early days simply didn’t pan out, and they looked for government support. When the Tories came to power, Ottawa’s love for this project waned, and they dumped it … right into the willing lap of Dalton McGuinty who embraced the scheme as a way for Ontario to show the world what we’re made of. Don’t be the last city without an air rail link! The matter was especially crucial as part of the Pan Am Games bid — there would be an express train to the airport.
Alas, the numbers still didn’t work, and SNC Lavalin looked to Queen’s Park for financial support. McGuinty showed them the door, and that might have been the end of things but for the usual Ontario hubris. The project became a public sector job 100%, but there was still the sense that it wouldn’t be a burden on the taxpayer.
On Friday, June 5, 2015, the Star’s Tess Kalinowski had an online Q&A with Bruce McCuaig, and it was quite revealing.
When will the line be electrified?
“The recent provincial budget set aside funding for Regional Express Rail, which includes electrification of the corridors, including UPX. We are folding the UPX electrification into the electrification of the Kitchener corridor as far as Bramalea, and we expect electrification to start being operational on five of the lines in 2023.”
There was a time when electrification was promised for only a few years after UPX began operation. Clearly, this is not going to happen even on a small scale for 8 years, let alone a full buildout. Whether there will even be a government left in office willing to undertake this project remains to be seen.
Back in September 2014, McCuaig claimed that the government’s promised electrification within 10 years was possible. Hmmm. Maybe a few kilometers here and there, but certainly not the full buildout if they’re only going to start in 2023. After a burst of election fever and enthusiasm for electrified GO services, Queen’s Park is getting cool, if not cold feet.
What about additional stations?
“We are building in plans for a new GO station and UPX station into the construction contract for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The Crosstown phase 1 ends at Mount Dennis and I think it would be a great place to have an interchange to give people more choice. At Woodbine, we have done what transit planners call “protect” for a potential future station.
…
“More stations connected in to the subway (like Dundas West/Bloor) and a future location at Mount Dennis means you can access the service at a lower cost. The trip from Dundas West/Bloor to the airport will have a fare of $15.20 if you use your PRESTO card”
It’s nice to know that Metrolinx still implies that the Crosstown will have a “phase 2”, although the almost certainly lower fare on this local transit service would make one wonder why one would choose to transfer off of the Crosstown and onto UPX, especially at a premium fare. As for the fare from Dundas West, it might just be a tolerable alternative to the 192 Airport Rocket from Kipling Station once Metrolinx builds a convenient link from the UPX station to the subway. The current arrangement is not exactly a “first class” link the fare would imply.
How many riders will UPX need to break even, and will it pay off its capital costs?
We plan to have the fare box for UPX cover its operating costs within three to five years. As you would expect, it will take a few years to build the ridership, just like any other system. We are not expecting fares to pay back the capital costs at this time. The province has invested the $456 million in the capital and it would be unusual in a North American context to expect customers to pay back the capital cost through their fares. I don’t know off the top of my head how many riders per day will be needed for cost recovery, but we do expect that level of ridership by year three to five.
So let’s get this straight: what started out as a sure thing for the private sector will take maybe three years just to reach a break-even state on operating costs. This also happens to be the period by which Metrolinx expects ridership to stabilize, and one wonders just how much room for growth in demand and revenue there will be beyond that. As for capital costs, oh we could never expect passengers to pay those. No wonder SNC Lavalin wanted a subsidy.
By the way, remember that phrase the next time someone tries to slip capital-from-current spending into an operating budget as John Tory did this year with the TTC’s bus purchase.
What we don’t know is the amount of subsidy the UPX will divert from other transit needs within GO or other transit systems. There will inevitably be pressure to bring fares on UPX down, especially if service in the corridor is combined with a route like SmartTrack. Then there is the small matter that UPX is a separate division complete with its own president. This is rather like having a President of the Scarborough RT except that Line 3 carries nearly 40,000 riders a day, more than UPX can physically handle if it were packed from 6am to midnight.
I will be magnanimous. Get the line open. Enjoy Balzac’s coffee in the station. Thrill to the glorious view of Toronto’s former industrial might along the rail corridor. Impress the hell out of those Pan Am visitors (although of course the officials and athletes have limos and buses and reserved lanes on expressways for their delicate sensibilities).
Once the games are over, let’s get serious about the money we have invested in the Weston/Georgetown corridor and figure out how to run an actual transit service that caters to more than the well-off who can afford to pay extra for a fast ride downtown.
Steve Munro 
The run from Kennedy Station to the airport district must be one hell of a long trip. I think that you mean the 32 buses. Etobicoke always got first choice for the lower, more prestigious, route numbers, 32 vs 34 and 52 vs 54. This is just another example of the unfair treatment given to Scarborough.
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Etobicoke lost 2 Anglesey and 3 Kingsway to the machinations of other parts of the city. Also, Steeles West was given the much less prestigious, higher route number of 60, compared with its Steeles East counterpart.
Steve: Ah, but 60 is a very special number because it has so many factors, and is the basis of many systems of measurement, not the least of which is time.
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I meant GO transit 34. York Mills-Brampton
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I know about that route and have actually taken it but I thought you meant Eglinton West which does play around the airport corporate centre south of the airport. With all the different transit agencies there is an overlap of route numbers. Brampton Transit’s longest route is 501 Queen, the Zum Express. We shall all have to be more explicit with the use of route numbers in areas of overlapping jurisdiction.
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Got back from Japan today after 2 weeks of riding probably the best run train system in the world. When I arrived at Pearson I saw that UPX had opened in my absence. Despite living one subway stop from Dundas West station, I elected to take the bus to Kipling. With two travelers the bus, or a taxi still makes the most sense. I might have considered UPX if it offered a free transfer to the TTC, but the indignity of dragging my luggage along Bloor street to the subway, only to pay again to go one stop was too much.
BTW, this is the best rail uniform I saw in Japan.
Kawaii desu ne?
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Thanks Steve for reminding people of the history of this sad project. SNC Lavalin realized before walking away/getting turfed that without electrification, the project would be too expensive to run and maintain with diesel. They would have been happy to do electric according to my discussion in 2010 with them. Maybe they were just telling me what we wanted to hear but after building the Canada Line in Vancouver, there was no reason not to be building electric in Toronto.
Former Premier, David Peterson, and his pet, Diesel Dalton, along with his minions including Wynne, are the reasons why we are still doing diesel — no foresight, more important to have their precious train for Pan Am and they have no real clue about the damaging effects of diesel both for the human body and for the buildings in the Corridor. Of course, none of them live anywhere near this line! And after telling us that the line would be electrified in 2017, now they have given the communities the proverbial middle finger and are backing away from their own timeline. If they didn’t change their Transportation Ministers like we change our underwear, we might have some continuity and firm commitments. Every change brings a new whim and breaking of promises. And for some reason, people keep voting them in!
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If they plan to add stations at Mount Dennis and Woodbine, I would think it makes sense to add additional stops including Kipling, Weston Rd/St.Philips, Liberty Village etc … this line will eventually have numerous stations along its route, which I think will result in it being electrified.
Steve: That’s SmartTrack, which is a separate, but overlapping project. Electrification is certainly worthwhile, but the date seems to be drifting away into the future.
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Huh? The capital cost of electrifying the railway dwarfs any cost savings between diesel and electric propulsion. The Canada Line in Vancouver is an absolute different kettle of fish. The main problem for the UPX is that it has to meet heavy rail specifications.
The “damaging effects of diesel” from all the current and future trains in the rail corridor is a pittance next to the effect from cars driving in the adjacent neighbourhoods. Maybe we should just ban gasoline engines entirely and have everyone buy electric cars.
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Once a month I travel to a friend’s house in Hamilton: he lives a 25 minute walk from the McMaster University GO station. I live quite near Royal York and Dundas. If I don’t drive, I take the Royal York Bus to Royal York Station, the Royal York South Bus to Mimico Station, the GO train to Aldershot and the GO bus to McMaster University station, then, walk to his house.
Metrolinx now has a trip planning system on the GO website so, out of curiosity, entered his and my address to see the route that they suggested. Here it is: Royal York Bus to Royal York Station; TTC subway to Dundas West Station; UPX to Union Station; GO express bus to Hamilton GO station and another GO bus to McMaster GO station.
Not only would their routing be considerably more expensive, it took about 45 minutes longer to make the trip having me leave my house at 10:00 and arriving at McMaster at 12:48 whereas my trip has me leave my house at 10:20 and get to McMaster at 12:11.
Is this a computer error or an attempt to “force feed” UPX.
Brian J. Bentley
Steve: Intriguing! I just fed the same trip into Google Maps and it uses your route as the first choice. I then tried TripLinx and got a route via Square One, although it shows the UPX option as a third choice. It is not clear what is the deciding factor in the trip because the first choice is slightly longer in time, but has one less transfer. All of the recommendations from GO use express buses, not their trains, except for the case of the UPX as a link to Union.
When I adjust the preferences to take out UPX, it sends me to Union, but then puts me on an express bus. However, it does also discover the route via Mimico Station. If I use the “fewest transfer” option, all of the recommended routes are via buses(!). The one option that is not available is “minimize fare”.
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I don’t think there is any ‘maybe’ about it. But the reason we can’t at the moment is the same reason we can’t run electric GO trains today: lack of infrastructure. Until there are fast chargers available everywhere (i.e. basically where we now have gas stations) an all-electric car will not be feasible for many people.
Saying “cars are a bigger problem than trains; therefore, we should not bother to improve the trains” is not a reasonable stance. We can’t end the use of fossil-fuelled cars at the moment, but we can with trains; and we should do what we can.
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Diesel trains are an improvement over the equivalent number of cars as far as air quality goes. Not building transit because it’s not the absolute best means we don’t get any improvement in the meantime. Electrifying the airport line first doesn’t make sense because it’s not the busiest line on the system. I’m for electrification, transit expansion, and all that, but it should be done in a systematic way to maximize the returns rather than to fill political pandering.
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