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Analysis of 129 McCowan North – September/October 2024

This article reviews the quality of service and crowding on the 129 McCowan North bus in September and October of 2024.

Updated Nov . 18/24 at 5:00 pm: Bus spacing charts were omitted in the original posts, and they have been added. Also, crowding and spacing charts have been added for Wednesday, October 2 as an example of route behaviour before the October 6 schedule change.

Summary

This route has two branches:

  • 129A operates north of Steeles under contract to York Region to Major Mackenzie Drive.
  • 129B operates to Steeles Avenue.

In the September schedules, much of the 129A service was provided as an “every nth” through bus on the Steeles service. This changed on October 6 so that the 129A and 129B services operate independently, and the 129B service changed from regular-sized to articulated buses. Service in peak periods is scheduled to be uneven even if it is “on time” by TTC standards.

With a combination of bus sizes and uneven headways, the effect on crowding can be severe if a smaller bus is travelling on a headway designed for a larger one.

Details of the scheduled service are in the main part of the article.

Construction at Sheppard severely affected travel times for much of the last two weeks in October. In turn, there was more bunching and gaps, and headway reliability declined considerably.

The segment of the route where bus crowding is most reported lies between STC and Steeles, and extends into York Region.

Service leaving Kennedy Station northbound shows a small range of headways only with the September schedule which had regular departure intervals. From week 2 of October onward, and compounded by effects of construction, headway reliability at Kennedy Station was poor. The situation was worse further north on the route. Southbound services merging at Steeles did not do so on a controlled basis even though the schedule purports a “blended” service.

Service north of Steeles can be quite erratic northbound. Southbound service benefits from recovery time at the Major Mackenzie terminus, but can still be uneven.

The remainder of this article contains many charts for readers who like the detailed analysis.

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TTC Service Changes Effective November 17, 2024

This article details upcoming service changes on the TTC network, most of which will occur on Sunday, November 17.

Updated Nov 14 at 1:10pm: The section about supplementary service on many routes and the possible future for 2025 has been clarified based on additional info from the TTC.

Major changes include:

  • Re-opening of St. Clair West Station Loop. 512 St. Clair streetcars return there on Thursday, November 14, and bus service 33 Forest Hill, 90 Vaughan and 126 Christie on Sunday, November 17.
    • Note that routes 33 and 126 will return to independent operation and the buses will not interline.
    • Route 90 will no longer operate south of St. Clair to Bathurst Station.
  • The final stage of overhead reconstruction will occur on the western end of 509 Harbourfront and 511 Bathurst.
    • 509 cars will operate to Exhibition Loop until November 24 as part of the extra service for Taylor Swift concerts. After that, they will run only to the loop at Queens Quay and Spadina.
    • 511 Bathurst cars will be rerouted to Union Station effective November 14. A shuttle bus will operate from Queen & Bathurst to Exhibition Loop beginning November 17. (The 510D Spadina bus already serves Exhibition Loop.)
  • The 35 Jane bus will operate with split service on the regular 35A and the via Hullmar 35B branch at the north end of the route at all times, not just in peak periods.
  • Service in southwestern Scarborough will be modified:
    • The 12D Kingston Road service to UTSC will now operate weekday midday and early evenings in addition to the existing peak period service.
    • The 12C St. Clair branch will be removed
    • The 69 Warden South bus will operate to the Barkdene Hills area at all hours replacing the 12C Kingston Road branch.
    • A new route 117 Birchmount South will operate between Warden and Victoria Park Stations via Kingston Road.
    • Routes 69 and 117 will interline at Warden Station so that passengers can ride through between them.
  • The 110C Islington South branch to Kipling Loop is rerouted to better serve Lakeshore Village. Northbound buses will run north on Kipling, then east via Birmingham, Twelfth, Garnett James, Ninth and Birmingham to Islington. Northbound buses will no longer operate on Lake Shore and Thirteenth.
  • The stopping pattern for 54 Lawrence East, 954 Lawrence East Express and 154 Curran Hall will be standardized so that all Lawrence corridor services use the same stops in the SRT replacement corridor. Hours of service on 154 Curran Hall will be corrected to match the former 54B service which it replaced.
  • Service on 304 King Night and 305 Dundas Night cars will improve from every 20 to 15 minutes.

These and other changes are detailed in the full article.

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Analysis of 903 Kennedy Station-STC Express October 2024

The 903 Express bus replacing the former Scarborough Rapid Transit Line 3 began operating formally in September 2023 after the SRT shut down in July. Initially the route operated totally in mixed traffic, but red lanes were added to speed operation. Also, the route initially operated via Progress, but shifted to Ellesmere in mid-November after roadway changes to support the route.

Initial service was extremely frequent, but this was cut back in November 2023 when several other routes were extended south from STC to Kennedy Station to provide a one-seat ride to passengers who otherwise would have to transfer at STC station. The 903 Express remains in operation, but less frequently thanks to the presence of other services.

Although many routes now share the corridor south via Midland and north via Kennedy between Ellesmere and Kennedy Station, the 903 Express can stand in for all routes to measure travel times.

A few points revealed here:

  • Service on this route is fairly regular with much less of the headway spread into gaps and bunches seen on other route analyses. This is likely due to the demand pattern with few stops, and less cumulative delay from boarding/alighting passengers along the route, combined with reliable departures at the terminals.
  • Where buses are crowded, this usually shows up as a series of regularly spaced vehicles with heavy loads, not as single crowded buses after wide gaps.
  • The benefit of the red lanes varies by location, direction and time of day. Travel times are included here as a reference point for future comparison when the SRT busway goes into service, as well as to track any spillover effects from Scarborough Subway construction.

Updated November 9, 2024 at 4:40pm: The operating chart including crowding status has been added for October 16 as a counterpart to the bus spacing charts for the same day.

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501/301 Queen Diversion via Richmond/Adelaide Begins November 10 [Corrected Date]

The TTC has announced that the Queen car diversion around Ontario Line construction at Yonge Street will be simplified effective Sunday, November 10, 2024.

Streetcars will operate westbound via Church, Richmond and York, and eastbound via new track on York, Adelaide and Church. Connections to the subway will be via walking transfers south from Queen Station to Richmond (westbound service) and north from King Station to Adelaide (eastbound service). Connections to the University Line will be at Osgoode Station both ways.

Updated Nov 8 at 6pm: The TTC has confirmed that there will be no stops at Victoria, Bay or York as these are within walking distance of other stops.

The 501B shuttle bus from Broadview/Gerrard to Wolseley Loop at Bathurst Street will no longer operate.

There will be no 501/301 service on King Street at King or St. Andrew Stations.

Other services in the King Street corridor will remain: 503 Kingston Road, 504 King and 508 Lake Shore.

[An earlier version of this article cited November 6, not the 10th.]

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Analysis of 29/929 Dufferin – September 2024 (Updated)

This article continues a series of reviews of various routes in September 2024, and in particular the crowding conditions on buses.

The data for Wednesday, September 25 are reviewed in detail to show some of the factors that vanish in stats averaged at the level of a month.

Updated Nov. 4, 2024 at 6:45am: Charts have been added at the end of the article showing the combined local and express service on September 25, and comparing travel times over segments of the route.

General notes:

  • Although the TTC Service Standards are based on the premise that vehicles leave terminals more-or-less “on time”, in practice there is a considerable variation that extends beyond the approved standard.
  • Irregular vehicles spacing tends to grow along a route so that bunches and gaps become more accentuated. There does not appear to much attempt to regulate vehicle spacing enroute.
  • Crowded buses are likely to appear after gaps in service, and loads on groups of buses are not evenly distributed. The average load measured over time might be within standards, but the load experienced by most riders is above that average.
  • Both the local and express services suffer from irregular vehicle spacing. The express buses make the journey between King and Wilson about five minutes faster than the locals.
  • Severe traffic congestion northbound near Yorkdale in the afternoon affects both the local and express buses.

This is a rather long article with a lot of charts to illustrate how vehicle tracking data can be presented in many ways.

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TTC Board Meeting – October 29, 2024

The TTC Board met on October 29 with an agenda that did not give the impression of being an all-day affair, but that is not how things turned out.

An extended debate in both public and confidential session arose from a management proposal to ban eBikes from the system from mid-November to mid-April as a safety measure. This arose from a fire onboard a subway train earlier in 2024 and a more general concern about eBike fires as these vehicles become more common.

There were many overlapping threads in the debate, but in the end the Board referred the matter back to staff for additional information, especially in regards to harmonization with existing City and Metrolinx policies, and the problem of enforcement. This will be on the December 3, 2024 meeting agenda.

To me, the most frustrating part of the discussion was the amount of time devoted to that issue compared to the almost non-existent debate on basic matters like service quality and management, as well as reconciliation of TTC plans with Council’s rather lofty aims to increase transit use as an essential environmental policy.

There was little new in the CEO’s monthly report. Ridership continues to build at a modest pace, and the profile of demands by day-of-week and time-of-day requires a rethink of service provision.

Other issues in this article:

  • Hydraulic fluid leaks from subway work cars
  • Reduced speed zones
  • Ending legacy media
  • The size of the TTC bus fleet
  • Transport buses for warming centres
  • Streetcar open door cameras
  • The CEO’s mandate
  • Gambling advertising
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Temporary Replacement of 512 St. Clair Streetcars

Starting at 11pm on Friday, November 1 until 5am on Thursday, November 14, streetcars will be replaced by buses over the entire 512 St. Clair route. Buses are already covering the east end of the route due to a sinkhole near Avenue Road and streetcars are diverting south to Bathurst Station.

This substitution will allow various works including completion of reconstruction at St. Clair West Station.

The 10 streetcars assigned to the line will be replaced by 15-30 buses.

Full streetcar service will resume on November 14, subject to completion of construction work.

Bus service on 33 Forest Hill, 90 Vaughan and 126 Christie will return to St. Clair West Station on Sunday, November 17, the next schedule change.

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TTC’s Service Changes for the Swift Eras Tour

The TTC has announced several service changes to accommodate crowds expected at the Taylor Swift Eras Tour concerts at the Rogers Centre on November 14-16 and 21-23. For full details, see their site.

On concert nights, subway service will be improved between 5-8pm and 11pm-1:30am with Line 1 trains operating about every 3 minutes, and Line 2 trains every 4 minutes.

509 Harbourfront service will be restored between Union Station and Exhibition Loop from November 1-24 with at least 11 cars, up from the usual 7 on the line, on concert days .

511 Bathurst cars will operate from Bathurst Station to Union on November 14-16, and starting on November 17 on a scheduled basis.

19 Bay, a normally infrequent service, will have 10 extra buses. Post-show they will operate express northbound stopping only at King, Queen, Dundas and College enroute to Bay Station.

510D Spadina bus will similarly provide an express service stopping at the same intermediate destinations as 19 Bay enroute to Spadina Station.

The express services will be styled as “Swiftbus”. Extra service on 504 King will be styled as “Swiftcar”.

Access at Union Station will be monitored and controlled to prevent the overcrowding that occurred on past occasions with large events.

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TTC 2025 Annual Service Plan Consultation – Round 2

Earlier this year, the TTC conducted the first round of consultations on its 2025 Annual Service Plan. My comments on it include several maps and tables including an update on previously proposed changes that had not yet been implemented.

The following changes are in the second round of consultations:

  • The proposed removal of 87 Cosburn service to East York Acres has been withdrawn for further review.
  • The review of Community Bus routes now includes proposed extensions and restructuring, although the scope is limited by a lack of budget headroom. There is no discussion of where more routes might be added to the system but for a lack of resources to run them.
  • Proposals have been added for alternate service during some, but not all, major construction projects planned for 2025.
  • A proposal to review and consolidate mid-block bus stops has been added.

Except for the 87 Cosburn, all proposals from round one appear unchanged in round two.

The TTC’s survey is available here and will be open for feedback until November 11, 2024. If you have suggestions, please be sure to respond to the survey. Some TTC planning staff do read this site regularly, but feedback on the plan should go to them directly to be part of the record.

I participated in a recent stakeholder session on the plan, and was disappointed by its lack of ambition. There is no sense of a “Ridership Growth Strategy”, an aspirational statement of “here is what we could do”, as opposed to living within the existing budget. It’s almost as if John Tory and Rick Leary never left.

On an informational basis, the plan does not recap pending changes for the eventual opening of Lines 5 Eglinton-Crosstown and 6 Finch West, nor does it discuss past proposals that have not yet been implemented (see my article on round one for a list of these). This leaves riders to search through available background materials to get an overall sense of what will happen in 2025. There is no concrete discussion of general service improvements to attract ridership.

The remainder of this article details the proposals added in the round two consultation.

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Request for Comment: Charting Crowding vs Location and Time (Updated)

Updated Oct. 29 at 2:35pm: The service chart showing crowding levels has been revised with adjusted colouring, and to give emphasis to lines so that they stand out better. See the end of the article for a sample.

Updated Oct. 27 at 8:45pm: Sample charts have been added at the end incorporating some suggested changes.

This article continues my search for clear ways to display vehicle crowding data that I now receive as part of my data feed from TTC. In previous articles, I have shown vehicle tracking charts colour coded for the crowding index.

These charts show the regularity (or not) of service, locations of delays, bunches and gaps, and the resulting crowding pattern. This is useful for fine-grained analysis, but one must look at many charts to see the overall patterns.

In an attempt to “zoom out”, I developed a new chart format that shows the proportion of service at each crowding level seen at screenlines along a route by time of day. This article presents the results for the routes already published, but I wanted to nail down the format before publishing more. (I have many more in the wings including 25/925 Don Mills, 29/929 Dufferin, 36 Finch West, 39/939 Finch East, 41/941 Keele, 52/952 Lawrence, 53/953 Steeles East, 60/960 Steeles West, 85/985 Sheppard East, 86/986 Scarborough, 89/989 Weston, 116 Morningside, 129 McCowan North, 903 STC Express, and 905 Eglinton East Express).

Regular readers will know that I abhor the TTC’s practice of reporting service stats on monthly averages with every trip combined to give an overall picture. This hides a lot of things, notably the variations by hour and location, not to mention variations between routes. The chart format proposed here attempts to strike a balance between a hyper-detailed view and one where readers can see how routes behave at a level they can relate to their own journeys.

Does the new format shown here work for readers? Please let me know in the comments. I can do a lot of preparatory work on the other routes, and then drop their stats into whatever the final chart template looks like.

Many thanks to those who have sent suggestions regarding other charts I have published.

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