Every few months, the TTC brings the cheery news that service is pushing ever closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Approved as part of the TTC 2024 Operating Budget, service investment will increase to 97% of pre-pandemic levels this fall, from 95% at the end of 2023. The first 1% increase occurred in the spring of 2024 and additional investment of 1% will be made through the fall.

These changes will be implemented alongside continued adjustments and reallocation of service to match capacity to demand. Overall, the changes will increase frequency, improve reliability, and strengthen connections throughout the city.

[CEO’s Report, September 2024, p. 10]

Riders waiting for their bus, streetcar or subway train might beg to differ.

This is an example of the “good news” mentality that overplays the achievement of the TTC and its recently-departed CEO, and contributes to the gap between publicity and day-to-day rider experience.

The basic problem is that the TTC measures “recovery” based on the weekly hours of scheduled service. This is not the same as the service riders see which is most easily expressed in buses/hour or in the scheduled interval between vehicles. (A 6 minute headway of buses is equal to 10 buses/hour.)

Over the years, service hours have grown because of traffic congestion (more buses are needed to provide the same frequency), recovery time (time for breaks at terminals), padding to avoid the need for short turns, and system expansion. None of these contributes more service to existing routes. These changes can inflate total hours needed to operate the network or, conversely, they can spread existing budgeted hours more thinly across routes.

A meaningful comparison looking route-by-route, time period-by-period, shows that in many cases the level of service, measured by frequency, has declined since January 2020, and in some cases the service is substantially worse. Details are shown later in this article.

A compounding factor to service reductions is the unreliability of service. Bad enough that buses and streetcars come less often, but when their spacing is not regular, gaps add considerably to waiting time and to crowding. In theory a route might have a scheduled number of vehicles per hour, but in practice their spacing causes most riders to jam on the first of the duo or trio that shows up. The average rider experience is a packed bus even if the average load over an hour meets standards. Few riders experience the relatively empty second and third buses in a pack. TTC reports crowding based on hourly averages without showing the variation between vehicles.

In brief, it is time for the TTC to start reporting service quality on a basis that corresponds to what riders see day-to-day in their travels. The current scheme may allow feel-good media events, but the contrast with actual experience undercuts the credibility of announcements.

The TTC has released the first draft of their 2025 Annual Service Plan for comment on their site. Readers with suggestions should use the TTC’s survey for input to the plan.

Updated August 9 at 5:20pm: The TTC has supplied new versions of maps for routes 49 and 405, as well as for the Etobicoke Blue Night service change proposals. On their behalf, thanks to readers who have flagged issues on the original versions.

The consultation looks at three areas of TTC service:

• Proposed 2025 Changes
• The One Fare Program
• Community Bus Routes (4xx series)

There will also be pop-up consultations at various locations around the city.

In a recent Stakeholders’ session which I attended, it became clear that some of the 2024 ASP proposals that had not yet shown up in service would be coming in fall 2024. I asked the TTC for details of the outstanding 2024 proposals, and this information is in a table at the end of the article.

A further problem is that the substantial changes already planned for the Line 5 and 6 openings cannot be implemented until Metrolinx actually begins service there.

One key item that is not addressed by this round of consultation is the matter of service frequency. Most of the routes TTC proposes to modify suffer from infrequent service, and the benefit of the route changes will be muted by the absence of buses as opposed to lines on the map.

A recent X/Twitter thread began with a claim that the streetcar system suffers from slow operation because of closely spaced stops, specifically below 100 metres. I made a short reply showing the average spacing for each route, but have now generated charts showing all routes in detail.

There are only a handful of stops spaced closer to or below 100m, and so the claim that this is a source of much delay is easily disproved. The question then is what the typical spacings are, why, and how much “efficiency” could be obtained by eliminating some of them. I do not attempt to answer that question here, but simply present the actual stop spacing data so that there can be informed debate.

The TTC’s design goals for stops are set out in the Service Standards:

2.4 Surface Stop Spacing
Surface stops should be designed in accordance with the TTC’s Technical Criteria for the Placement of Transit Stops. When the locations of stops are being planned for a route, it is necessary to strike a balance between the competing objectives of passenger convenience, operating efficiency, safety and community impacts. In general, increasing the number of stops on a route results in shorter walking distances for passengers but it also slows down service. To achieve a proper balance, the TTC will place bus stops in accordance with the standard presented in Table 2 [below].

Service Classification	Stop Spacing Range
Streetcar	300 – 400 metres
Bus – Local	300 – 400 metres
Bus – Express (Tier 1)	650 – 1,000 metres
Bus – Express (Tier 2, Limited Stop)	650 – 1,000 metres
Bus – Express (Tier 2, Local/Express)	650m for express portion; 300 – 400m for local portion
Bus – Community	Flag stop

It’s important to remember that Toronto streets are not laid out on a repeating grid as in some cities, and one cannot simply stop at “every second street”, or whatever layout works. Existing pedestrian circulation patterns, transfer points, major origins/destinations all play a role in defining a “good” stop location. This is even more of a problem in suburban areas with longer blocks and poor opportunities to access transit stop from “nearby” (as the crow flies) neighbourhoods.

Methodology

The stop distances for each route have been taken from the GTFS versions of the schedules published regularly by the TTC. These are used by trip prediction and planning apps to understand the layout of the system. In a few cases where current operations do not match the historic route layout (e.g. 501 Queen, 504 King, 512 St. Clair), I have used older data sources from a period when routes operated normally.

Only a few routes are changing at the end of July, although TTC has hinted that major service additions are coming in the fall. Given the state of the TTC’s budget, we will see in roughly a month just what that entails.

Rapid Transit Changes

2 Bloor-Danforth

Gap trains are removed from the weekday schedule due to a shortage of operators. This eliminates two trains in the AM and PM peaks, and five trains through the early and late evening periods. Four midday gap trains remain.

Night Service Changes

504/304 King

Three mid-evening trips eastbound from Humber Loop are added to provide a better transition between the 504B King and 501 Queen services west of Roncesvalles. There is no change to the 501 Queen nor to the 507 Long Branch schedule.

Schedules for the 304 King Night Car will be adjusted for reliability. Cars will continue on their present 20′ headway, but some driving time has been converted to terminal layover time.

305 Dundas

All-night service will be provided on Dundas over the same route as the daytime 505 with cars on a 30′ headway.

306 Carlton

Because Dundas is now a 24 hour route, the 306 Carlton Night Car will operate to High Park Loop, and will continue on a 20′ headway. (Note that although this is generally advertised as a 20′ headway, it actually widens to 30′ after 3am.)

332 Eglinton West, 334 Eglinton East & 354 Lawrence East

These routes will be changed to enter Eglinton Station via Yonge and Berwick rather than via the western entrance at Duplex. Stops at the south entrance to the station and at Berwick to provide transfer connections between these routes.

363 Ossington

Buses will serve the stop at Strachan and Canniff to provide a transfer connection with 304 King, and to match the daytime service.

Bus Changes

36 Finch West

Additional trips will be added in the AM and PM peaks, and in weekday early evenings to provide more capacity on this route. These are factory trips deleted in error in the June schedule change.

114 Queens Quay East

The 114 Queens Quay East bus has been using Lake Shore Garage as its eastern terminal since early July. This change is now formally in the schedule.

Buses run out of service east of Carlaw, but serve the Logan, Lake Shore, Carlaw loop in both directions.

123 Sherway

A trip from Kipling Station on the 123D East Mall service will shift from 6:11 to 6:12am to even out departures.

203 High Park

The 203 High Park shuttle operated with a Wheel Trans bus will now run east to Keele Station which provides an accessible connection to the subway. Buses will loop through High Park Station enroute. The headway is changed from every 20 to every 30 minutes.

937 Islington Express

Stops added at Dundas and at Rathburn to provide transfers to 40 Junction and 48 Rathburn.

945 Kipling Express

Stops added at Burnhamthorpe and at Rathburn to provide transfers to 46 Martin Grove, 48 Rathburn and 50 Burnhamthorpe.