Service Cost and Quality

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TTC Priorities: Asking the Wrong Question

A recent Council debate considered a report on Prioritization of Planned Higher-Order Transit Projects. Its first recommendation:

City Council reaffirm the policy that maintaining the existing system in a state of good repair is the first priority for investment in transportation.

Despite the State of Good Repair (SOGR) ranking first, some Councillors pursued their subway dreams. Amending motions included the Finch West LRT extension to Pearson Airport, the Bloor subway extension to Sherway, and the Sheppard subway western and eastern extensions. All of these are long-term projects that will have no effect on the transit system for a decade at least.

(Two lines, the Eglinton East and Waterfront East LRTs, were not under discussion as they are already City “priority” projects, although what benefit this status confers remains to be seen.)

The TTC’s Capital Plan includes a very long list of projects for which there is only partial committed funding, or none at all. Meanwhile, the backlog in SOGR work will climb to about $8 billion over the coming decade in spite of $13 billion in spending. In other words, the 10-year budget should be $21 billion, but is actually only 60% of that figure.

Even this pales by comparison with the 15-year total which now stands at almost $48 billion of which only 25% is funded. This number does not include many proposals including the rapid transit projects favoured by Council.

My review of the TTC’s 2024 Capital Budget and Plan includes more details on the December 2023 Unfunded Projects report and I will not repeat that here.

SOGR is seen by some as getting in the way of their preferred system expansion projects, and that a way forward might be paved (so to speak) with a focus on a short list of the most important SOGR items. This is absolute folly, but typical of the priorities that created the problem in the first place.

This misses the key question about our transit system: what do we want it to be? This includes choices not just for capital repairs and/or expansion, but for the overall scope and quality of service transit will provide.

Will the TTC always be a second class service except in a handful of rapid transit corridors, will transit play a much larger role in moving people around the entire city, or will it decline for want of resources to an unattractive last choice for travel? Only after we decide on the goal can we address the question of where to spend, and how much we need.

The 15-year Capital Plan grew substantially from 2023 to 2024 with the principal additions in the bus fleet and a provision for added capacity under the TransformTO Net Zero program. The big jump in bus costs reflects the higher unit cost of battery buses now assumed to be the standard. (Facility Maintenance and Network Wide Assets are new categories in 2024, but they simply replace the “Other” group from previous years with a comparatively small increase.)

Portfolio2022-2036 ($m)2023-2037 ($m)2024-2038 ($m)
Subways$25,400.0$25,343.0$27,613.0
Buses$6,300.0$6,948.0$8,705.2
TransformTO$5,339.8
Streetcars$2,230.0$2,277.0$2,307.4
Facility Maintenance$2,415.1
Network Wide Assets$1,474.8
Other Infrastructure$3,300.0$3,478.0
Grand Total$37,230.0$38,046.0$47,855.3

Even the $5.3 billion TransformTO line is an understatement because it accounts only for bus fleet expansion, not for the other modes, and there is no discussion of the related operating cost and competing funding needs.

A quick-and-dirty way to approach the budget is to pick a “top five” project list as if, by implication, all of the rest can wait their turn behind Councillors’ aims for their “deserving” wards. A top five list is a simplistic approach that does not recognize the complexity of TTC’s maintenance needs. Even worse, it implies that if the worst of the backlog is addressed, we can sleep soundly.

I challenge anyone to pick only five lines from the tables below as the subset we could pay for while downplaying the rest.

Another challenge lies in project linkages (you cannot buy more buses without some place to store and maintain them), and in deciding which items should be stripped of priority, in effect relegated to a “bottom five” group. That will be a hard fight.

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“Educating and Training” The TTC Board

The TTC Board will hold a special meeting on Tuesday, April 2. The announced agenda includes only one report TTC Board Orientation, Education and Training Session which includes several topics:

a. Overview of the TTC, its Governance, Safety and Communications
b. Code of Conduct and Municipal Conflict of Interest Act
c. Being an Effective Director
d. Key TTC Strategies and Plans
e. Strategy Training Exercise

Although the agenda page advertises this as a public meeting and invites public deputations, the report states that it will be held in camera as permitted by the City of Toronto Act (S. 190.3.1). The report recommends that the “training materials” be publicly released after the session, although this could be amended. More importantly there will be no public record of the Board’s discussion.

The first three topics should be familiar to most of the Board as they have been in office for some time. Only three Councillor members changed with the arrival of Mayor Chow, and the existing Tory-era Citizen members are still in place except for one who resigned late in 2023. His replacement has not yet been appointed by Council. Training on how the TTC works should be an orientation session for new members, not a topic consuming a full Board meeting that could be spent on overall policy discussion.

Some years ago, the TTC Board attempted to arrange an agenda-free meeting to discuss general policy, but this was hijacked by management with a dog-and-pony show on their own accomplishments and the duties of the Board. This could be a repeat performance.

The time is long overdue for the Board to ask hard questions of management, of each other and of the City about the TTC’s future. We got a sense of what is possible at the recent Audit and Risk Management Committee meeting. Board members Saxe and Osborne grilled management who, frankly, were not fully prepared to answer questions about the Fare Inspection audit report. We have also seen an accumulation of issues regarding infrastructure maintenance and priorities that require informed debate and direction.

Probably the largest overall issue is budget, service and maintenance planning for 2025. In December 2023, the TTC Board wanted to establish a Budget Committee, but this has not yet happened. The motion was couched as a request to staff to report on the idea in Q2 2024 rather than as direction to “do it now”. By the time Q2 ends, it will be too late.

A Budget Committee must exist before the budget is locked down to allow a proper debate about options. For too many years, the budget has landed on the Board’s desk at the last minute with no scope for review of any but the most trivial parts.

As a matter of history, the TTC Budget Committee has not existed since January 10, 2019. Even then it had been moribund since November 2017 thanks to lack of interest by its members, a less than sterling example of good corporate governance.

The fundamental questions are what should the TTC be doing, and what can it do. Starting with the attitude that “we can’t afford it” is an abdication of the Board’s responsibility.

Toronto should know what might be possible and how much this will cost, and only then make decisions about what we choose to afford. The past decade plus of Ford/Tory tax policies precluded this approach, but with a new administration, it is time to seize control of the transit debate.

Here are questions I would ask were I on the TTC Board. This is not an exhaustive list, but then the “education and training” meeting is only scheduled for one day.

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TTC Service Changes: Sunday March 31, 2024

On March 31, the TTC will make service changes on several routes. Many of these include small service increases and/or adjusted travel times to reflect conditions on the routes.

Major changes include:

  • Reconfiguration of routes for construction at:
    • Lawrence West and Lawrence Stations
    • Sheppard-Yonge Station
    • Pape Station
  • Return of streetcars on 301 Queen Night
  • Service on 905 Eglinton East Express will change from using articulated to standard buses
  • Adjustments to travel times on bus routes in the STC corridor
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A Ridership Growth Strategy for 2024

Introduction: Regular readers of this site will recognize threads and arguments from past articles here. Indeed some recent posts were intended as background to this overall article on our city’s transit direction. There is a new Mayor with Council support for change. However, we risk that momentum will be lost and content ourselves with “full service restoration” and a handful of RapidTO projects.

This is not exactly a manifesto, but we have been here before with hopes for new and improved transit seeking progress beyond “business as usual”. Will this round be any different?

Thanks to readers for tweaks in the text. This is a long article, and I have broken it into segments with hotlinks here so that you can jump to specific chapters.

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Overcrowding on TTC Bus Routes

An ongoing issue with TTC service levels is that TTC claims about crowding do not always appear to align with rider experiences.

The TTC Board’s February 22 agenda includes a report about proposed free transit for Middle and Secondary School students, particularly for group field trips.

See: A Step Towards Free Transit for Middle and High School Students

Among the issues raised by the report is the ability of the transit system to handle the additional loads, and the need to co-ordinate planned outings with the TTC for provision of extra service. There is a map showing existing “hot spots” where mid-day routes are over capacity.

Many bus routes have this problem, but none of the streetcar routes.

A related issue is the degree to which crowding varies by day-of-week and the danger that Monday-Friday averages could mask problems with midweek demand levels.

Of particular note here is that the off-peak capacity shown is 35 per bus, not the higher value introduced with the 2023 budget that is close to a standing load. The heat map shows us where current operations exceed the 2023 standard, i.e. those over 100% occupancy vs a bus capacity of 35. Note that these are six-hour averages and individual bus loads will vary.

This also shows the scale of service changes required to reinstate the pre-2023 standard.

Here are the official Service Standard crowding levels and those implemented in the 2023 Operating Budget. The TTC Board has never formally change the Service Standards, and management plans to work back to the existing standards from the 2023 levels as part of future service and budget planning.

Service Standards Peak2023 PeakService Standards Off-Peak2023 Off-Peak
Bus50503545
Streetcar1301307090

The TTC produces a lot of charts in their monthly CEO’s report, but crowding maps like this one showing actual conditions only appear to support analyses of specific issues. They should be a standard part of the CEO’s Report so that there is an up-to-date indication of service capacity versus demand for all time periods.

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Honest Budgeting Needed At TTC

This article began as a Twitter/X thread responding to a post from Mayor Olivia Chow.

From the better way to the *best* way. This budget will restore 97% of pandemic-era TTC service cuts and get the city back on track.

There is a big problem with this claim, and I fear riders will be disappointed by what they actually see. Here is my consolidated thread.

It pains me to write this, but this post by Mayor Chow is simply not true. Either her spin doctors cannot read a budget, or she has been bamboozled by TTC’s misleading use of “restoring” service.

This chart is right out of the TTC budget and shows the planned service restoration by mode. Note that only the bus network gets back to 100%.

Because the values are based on vehicle and train hours, and buses (with relatively small capacity per vehicle) account for most of the hours, the total gets to 97% while leaving streetcars and the subway far behind.

But 97% is not really 97% as seen by riders. Many routes run more slowly than they did in 2019, and so it takes more hours to provide the same frequency and capacity of service.

For added clarity, “100%” of service hours will *not* reverse all pandemic era cuts because some hours go to routes running over 100% while others stay below that level. But spin doctors don’t do pesky details like that.

On top of that, crowding standards brought in by management without advance approval in 2023 mean that off peak service can be more crowded before triggering service improvements. These might be reversed in 2025 but only if there is budget headroom.

Talk about prepandemic service levels forgets that there were major problems with overcrowding and inadequate service back in 2019. Actual planned service in 2020 was higher than 2019, but was cut due to covid.

The shift in commute patterns means that total ridership is less than 2019 levels, but it is concentrated on a shorter work week. Off peak riding is already at or above former levels.

The TTC does not break out service frequency and capacity as metrics, but using vehicle hours hides deeper cuts in these areas.

The February 18 schedule changes include cuts on many routes which are described as “adjustments” on the TTC’s website. A few of these are erroneously called “improvements”.

One reason for the February cuts is that service in January was actually *over* budget and the cuts back that out.

The TTC has no public measurement of crowding conditions and service quality including gaps and bunching. That 97% number will be broadcast far and wide, but will hide many problems.

Service Budgets

For comparison, here are the 2019, 2020 (pre-covid) and 2024 service budgets. The important column is the third from the left, “Regular Service Total”.

For a comparison of January 2024 service levels to January 2020, see this article:

There is work to be done, and a vital first step is to understand just what is needed and what is possible. The TTC Board plans a strategy session in March, and their Budget Committee will probably start meeting in June-July.

Soon I will publish an article about a Ridership Growth Strategy for 2024 that will set the stage for the kind of debate that should be on the agenda.

Can we hope that these meetings will not be consumed by self-serving management dog-and-pony shows, but rather will be an open discussion of the state of and options for our transit system.

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TTC Service Changes Effective February 18, 2024

The TTC will modify service on many routes effective Sunday, February 18, 2024. Several of these changes involve “reallocation” of service between routes and time periods, and overall there will be a small decline in scheduled vehicle hours.

One concern about this process is that the TTC has stated that it would only impose the new, more crowded, off-peak loading standards when changing schedules, but would not retroactively cut service based on the 2023 management-imposed values. With many routes seeing service trimmed, we do not know what the new target crowding level will be because the TTC has not published this information for several years.

There will also be some adjustments for service reliability. These generally involve giving vehicles longer travel times with resulting wider headways on affected routes. In some cases, service does improve because extra time that had been allocated for construction effects is removed.

The table of construction projects affecting transit service is shown below. This does not include ongoing works on the subway system and slow orders for which there is no scheduled provision.

The major project beginning with this schedule period is the reconstruction of water mains and track on King Street West. This is the subject of a separate article:

The new service designs for 504 King, 501 Queen and 63 Ossington are included in the spreadsheet listing all changes below.

The configuration of the streetcar network is shown below.

Scheduled vehicle hours will decline slightly with these changes in part to correct for an overage relative to budget in January. A small increase is planned for the schedule change in late March, and a large one in September. The drop shown for December is the usual effect of the holiday break and the removal/reduction of school services.

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Fun With Figures: The Value of Transit Investment

A common, but troubling practice in talking about transit is the attempt to build a “business case” as if city’s transit network can be examined through a rather simplistic management school lens. Everything is reduced to a monetary value, be that direct spending, spinoffs, or the notional value of benefits.

Aside from basic errors in methodology, this approach assumes that the supposed value of transit spending can be gleaned from a one-dimensional view of its so-called worth in dollars and cents. Bad enough that this practice is entrenched in Metrolinx, an agency that sets priorities based on political, not financial, evaluations thereby undermining the credibility of financial analyses. The scheme has trickled down to the municipal level with a TTC/UofT study intended to show that money for transit has financial benefits and should be encouraged for the good of city and country.

You might ask why a transit advocate has misgivings about this exercise, but the answer lies in my long-standing conservatism (with a very small “c”) about public spending generally. Megaprojects bring press coverage, especially with the opportunity to announce over and over the latest step, no matter how trivial, as work inches along. This tactic works as long as there is success to report, and we just don’t talk about abject failures like Line 5 Crosstown any more often than needed.

A huge problem with the TTC’s gaping hole in Capital funding, and to a lesser extent on its Operating side, is that the cry “please, Sir, I want some more” for transit support wears thin with would-be partners. Moreover, everything on Toronto’s wish list does not necessarily align with political priorities elsewhere, and it must compete with demands from other cities and provinces. Thus the desire to show that transit spending has a great “payback”, but that number hides fundamental questions.

The problem with spending for its own sake is that one rarely hears the question “what else might we do with these billions” or “is this project really worth its cost compared to other demands on public funds”. How much is not built or operated because some other project took priority, or the growing cost of works already underway crowded other new schemes off of the table?

Into our political environment, one rife with patronage, cronyism and outright corruption, comes an attempt to justify spending on transit as an inherently good thing.

In 2022, the TTC launched a joint study with the University of Toronto Mobility Network which surfaced as part of the 2023 and 2024 Budgets. The goals of the study were “to identify and quantify the economic and other key benefits resulting from investment in transit and the TTC”:

  • Economic benefits realized from investments in transit services and capital works that enhance TTC’s existing transit network
  • Economic impact of the TTC on the local, regional, provincial and national economy
  • Qualitative and quantitative social, equity, health and environmental benefits and the economic spin off benefits derived from these other benefits
  • Impacts should the necessary service and capital investments not be made in the TTC
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TTC Board Meeting: December 20, 2023 – Part II

This article continues the series about the December 20, 2023 TTC Board meeting with details of the budget discussion.

Items discussed here:

This article deals mainly with the Q&A session at the Board meeting as I have already written about the 2024 budgets in detail elsewhere.

The 2024 Operating and Capital Budgets

A major problem with TTC budget “debates” is that they are quite perfunctory compared with the size and importance of the reports, and the spending involved. There has been no TTC Budget Subcommittee for years, and even when it existed, it rarely met. The idea of at least part of the Board doing a deep dive into budgets seems to be utterly beyond their idea of “good governance”, at least until the recent change in the Mayor’s and Chair’s offices.

Commissioner Ainslie asked that the Chair work on creation of Budget Committee with a report in 2Q24. He observed that agencies with much smaller budgets than the TTC have budget committees, and the TTC should too. The Board asked staff to report in Q2 2024 on the establishment of a Budget Committee.

It should not be for staff to report on creation of such a committee, but for the Board to say “we need this” and immediately canvass members for their interest. An informed committee will be essential for review of the 2025 budget priorities before the budget is struck. The budget should not come to the Board as a fait accompli based on discussions at the staff level. Moreover, the Mayor’s Office should have visible input to the process. If the level of so-called review by the Board amounts to a once-a-year dog-and-pony show by staff, there is no opportunity for Board input and queries about the underlying policies, assumptions and options available.

Some TTC Board members are strong in their belief that the role of the Board is to provide policy and oversight, and of management to manage. That is a great model provided that the Board actually engages in its role, but for many years there was no sense that the TTC Board actively developed policy, let alone held management accountable.

By the end of the budget debate, Board members were very concerned about the financial status of the TTC, even though quite complimentary about the detail of work presented by staff. Some of these members sat through the years when Mayor Tory ran the show, and the primary message was “everything’s just fine”. They bear some responsibility for problems that have festered for years.

After the staff presentation on the two budgets, there were many questions from the Board. The items below have been consolidated by topic. Illustrations are taken from the presentation deck.

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Broadview Station Reopens to Bus Service

The TTC has announced that bus operations will return to Broadview Station in coming days now that reconstruction of the track and paving is complete.

Thursday, January 4:

The 504/505 King/Dundas replacement bus service has operated from Castle Frank Station stopping on street at Broadview & Danforth. It will resume use of Broadview Station. The 304 King Night bus will also return to the station.

The 8 Broadview and 62 Mortimer buses have terminated at Broadview & Danforth using on street stops, and then deadheading to Gerrard to loop near Bridgepoint Hospital. They will return to their normal looping at Broadview Station.

Sunday, January 7:

The 87 Cosburn, 100 Flemingdon Park and 322 Coxwell Night buses have operated to Pape Station. They will resume their normal routes to Broadview Station.

Streetcar Service

Streetcar service is expected to return to Broadview Station on 504B King and 505 Dundas in the mid-February schedule changes.