Month: December 2024

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TTC Requests Proposals for New Line 2 Trains and Signalling

On December 9, 2024, the TTC issued Requests for Proposals for two major contracts affecting the future of Line 2 Bloor-Danforth: one for new trains, and the other for a new signalling system.

Although the documents for these RFPs total over 2,700 pages with detailed specifications for cars and signals, round one of the process is intended to establish the basic capabilities of would-be suppliers to actually handle the contract without getting into the nitty-gritty. Following rounds will get into the technical details and negotiations.

The RFP process for round one closes on January 28, 2025 (trains) and on January 27 (signals). Contract awards will occur in 2026.

Major points:

  • The two projects/contracts are linked because implementation of Automatic Train Control on Line 2 requires a new fleet. ATC installation can run concurrently with new train deliveries, but the benefits of ATC operation are not possible until the existing Line 2 fleet of T-1 trains is replaced.
  • As a separate project, the T-1s will be overhauled to keep them running into the 2030s, although they will be retired as new trains are delivered.
  • The new trains RFP includes provision for additional equipment including trains needed for extensions of Lines 1 and 2, and for improved service on Line 1. The timing of train deliveries for Line 2 could bump into requirements for Line 1 trains thereby delaying the Line 2 cutover to ATC. Additional trains for Line 1 also trigger the need for a new carhouse which is not yet a funded project.
  • Growth in capacity of Lines 1 and 2 beyond 2019 levels could be constrained by the availability of fleet and infrastructure. This has already shown up in the planned completion of the ATC cutover on Line 2 in 2035. This date conflicts with TTC projections of demand growth.
  • Although the RFP for new trains is theoretically open to all bidders, both the provincial and federal governments have made statements about how this will guarantee work for Thunder Bay. Bidders might well ask if any firm but Alstom actually should bother participating. Options within the RFP include future replacement of the Line 1 TR fleet which, based on a 30-year lifespan, would stretch from 2039 to 2047.
  • The Line 2 ATC RFP is also an open bid, and it explicitly states that if a different vendor from Line 1 (Alstom) is chosen there will be Line 1 and 2 trains with different vendors’ ATC gear. The trains will not be able to interoperate between the lines except in manual (“emergency”) mode at restricted speed.
    • Work cars need dual capability and the TTC intends to equip them with gear that can work with either the Line 1 or 2 system. What this might entail both for physical space on the cars, operating procedures and complexity is not discussed.
  • If train frequencies are improved beyond 2019 levels (less than 140 seconds), there will be capacity issues at terminals and turnbacks. The ATC RFP includes a performance requirement for faster turnarounds (as low as a 100 second headway) but it is not clear whether this is possible with existing track geometry.
  • The Scarborough Subway will be built with conventional block signals, and will be retrofitted with ATC in a later, as yet unfunded, project. It is not yet clear whether full service will operate during peak periods on the SSE during peak periods, and the ATC RFP provides for turnback operations in a tail track east of Kennedy Station.
  • Funding for future stages beyond 70 cars (55 for Line 2, plus 15 for the Scarborough and Yonge North extensions) is not guaranteed.
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Seasons Greetings For 2024

We’re almost at the end of another year, and I thank all of my readers for visiting and leaving comments that extend the discussions (usually) in a helpful direction.

Here is ex-Kansas City PCC 4759 on a fan trip in February 1976. For much of the trip, the car operated with a Philadelphia roll sign, hence the odd destinations in some shots.

  • At Moore Park Loop in the last winter when what we now call “512 St. Clair” operated east of Yonge Street. This site is now a parkette.
  • At the old and far more attractive Exhibition Loop before it was buried under what is now called the Direct Energy Centre.
  • At McCaul Loop before The Village by the Grange.
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“Service” on the 320 Yonge Night Bus

A reader commented in another post that he had a very long wait this morning (Sunday, December 22, 2024) for the 320 Yonge night bus around 6am. I had a look at the tracking data on Darwin O’Connor’s TransSee website to see what was happening. What I found was not pretty, not by a long shot.

320 Yonge is one of many all-night routes that riders depend on for transportation at a difficult time of the day, but the way the TTC operates this and other 3xx routes in the Blue Night network is a testament to how badly riders are treated at off hours.

I plan a detailed review of overnight service in January, but this will give a taste of what is going on.

Here are the tracking charts showing vehicle spacing and crowding on 320 Yonge for the past four Sundays. Each line represents a bus moving north and south from Steeles at the top to Queens Quay at the bottom. The horizontal spacing shows the gap in service, and the thickness of the dot shows the crowding level. The really fat dots show a bus at 90% or more of its maximum load.

Service between 5 and 6am is scheduled to be thin, but sometimes it can totally vanish as it did northbound on December 1st and 15th, and almost completely for over an hour on the 22nd. There are wide gaps at other times on some dates. For example, a wide gap southbound from Steeles at about 2:30am travels south and echoes back and forth on the line until nearly 6am.

Remember the usual tropes to explain poor service such as traffic congestion, bike lanes and the occasional plague of frogs that are cited to explain bad service. Oh yes, we mustn’t forget how streetcars cannot run reliably in mixed traffic, but, oh dear, the last streetcar ran on Yonge Street 70 years ago.

There is only a minor sign of traffic congestion in the period from 2-3am northhbound. This is a common issue and should be provided for in the schedules. Instead, it generally creates clumps of buses than run together to Steeles and back again southbound.

This is down to bad service regulation in the off hours, something already visible for evening and weekend services in many of my previous article. Overnight bus and streetcar routes have the worst reliability in the system, but they are not important enough for the TTC to care about them.

Another factor evident in these charts is that the buses have inadequate recovery time with which to recover from any delays or simply to give operators a break. This is shown by the immediate turnaround of buses at terminals (top and bottom of charts) with very little dwell time (shown by horizontal lines indicating a stopped bus).

In the Five Year Service Plan, the TTC talks of future Night Service improvements, assuming that they are funded. Here is a table showing possible changes:

Nothing is even proposed for night service improvements until 2027, and based on typical budget cycles, that really means fall 2027, not New Year’s Day.

The problem shown in the tracking charts above is very much one of poor line management, scheduling and wasted resources. It is almost impossible to tell whether, if buses were evenly spaced, any more would actually be needed, except during that 5-6am hour when service is thin on the ground, at best.

The TTC operates under difficult circumstances, but too many problems are “own goals” all the way from service adequacy and management through infrastructure and fleet maintenance.

Biblical plagues are not responsible for poor service, although the TTC would love to have a supernatural excuse. In the new year, we will see what the TTC proposes for 2025 and whether this will really make a difference for riders.

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TTC Service Changes Effective Sunday, January 5, 2025 (Updated)

The TTC will change schedules on many of its routes on January 5 in response to various factors including:

  • Restoration of holiday period cuts implemented on December 22
  • Progress in construction projects at Lawrence West and Rosedale Stations, and on Queens Quay
  • Beginning of reconstruction of Warden Station
  • Reallocation of bus bays at Kennedy Station
  • Reallocation of streetcar routes between carhouses to simplify operations
  • Setting a standard night car headway of 20 minutes (this change will complete when 310 Spadina resumes streetcar operation)
  • Implementing alternate surface routes to provide for accessibility where this is not yet available in certain stations

There is no change in subway service for this period.

Possible service improvements for 2025 will not occur until after the TTC’s 2025 budget and subsidy are approved.

Updated January 3, 2025 at 11:30pm: There will be a temporary arrangement with 511 Bathurst cars operating to Union Station and 509 Harbourfront cars operating to Spadina & Adelaide until mid-January. See the map later in this article.

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TTC Service Changes Effective Sunday, December 22, 2024

The TTC will adjust schedules on December 22 to reflect lower demand over the holiday period. Some routes will revert to summer 2024 schedules, and extra trips for school travel will be cut. These changes will be reversed in the January 5, 2025 schedules.

Routes changing to summer schedules:

  • 38/938 Highland Creek
  • 57 Midland
  • 76 Royal York South
  • 102/902 Markham Road
  • 111 East Mall
  • 903 Kennedy-Scarborough Express
  • 905 Eglinton East Express
  • 995 York Mills Express

The 900 Airport Express will see improved service during weekday peak periods, and weekend daytime.

Service over the period will be adjusted day to day as shown below.

DateService Design
Fri. Dec. 20Regular weekday service
Sat. Dec. 21Regular Saturday service
Sun. Dec. 22Regular Sunday service with minor changes
Mon. Dec. 23Adjusted weekday service (see above)
Tue. Dec. 24Adjusted weekday service
Wed. Dec. 25Holiday service with most routes starting at 8am
Thu. Dec. 26Holiday service with 32 shopping extras between 11am and 10pm
Fri. Dec. 27Adjusted weekday service
Sat. Dec. 28Regular Saturday service with minor changes
Sun. Dec. 29Regular Sunday service with minor changes
Mon. Dec. 30Adjusted weekday service
Tue. Dec. 31New Year’s Eve service (see below)
Wed. Jan. 1Holiday service with most routes starting at 8am
Thu. Jan. 2Adjusted weekday service
Fri. Jan. 3Adjusted weekday service
Sat. Jan. 4Regular Saturday service with minor changes
Sun. Jan. 5Regular Sunday service
Mon. Jan. 6Regular weekday service including school trips

New Year’s Eve Service

Service will operate free of charge from 7pm on December 31 to 7am on January 1 courtesy of Corby’s Distillery. Late evening service on most routes will be extended to 3am January 1.

Last Train
1 Yonge-University-Spadina
North from Union to Finch2:31 am
Last train arrival at Finch3:02 am
North from Union to VMC2:27 am
Last train arrival at VMC3:10 am
South from Finch2:00 am
South from VMC1:50 am
2 Bloor-Danforth
East from Kipling 2:15 am
Last train arrival at Kipling3:08 am
East from Bloor-Yonge2:40 am
West from Bloor-Yonge2:39 am
West from Kennedy Station2:18 am
Last train arrival at Kennedy3:02 am
4 Sheppard
East from Sheppard-Yonge2:57 am
Last train arrival at Don Mills 3:05 am
West from Don Mills3:09 am
Last train arrival at Sheppard-Yonge3:17 am

There will be a total of 127 Run As Directed buses operating with ending times varying from 3:50 to 6:10am on January 1.

Contract services on 52 Lawrence West to Westwood and 68 Warden to Major Mackenzie will end at about 3am. 160 Bathurst North, 102 Markham Road and 129 McCowan North will end at their usual times.

Service Change Details

2024.12.22 Service Changes

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The Crisis in Funding Transit Operations

For the past year, Toronto’s transit advocacy and hand-wringing focused on a planned order of new subway trains for Line 2 Bloor-Danforth. The City committed its share of funding through special transit taxes, and Ontario came in with the proviso that the Federal government pony up too.

For their part, the Feds dragged their heels not just on the subway cars, but on transit funding generally. They announced a $30-billion, ten-year national program, but money will not flow until 2026. Toronto’s subway car order will draw its federal share from that pot.

One of Toronto’s many problems is solved, but Canada still faces a Federal program inadequate compared to the backlog of national needs, not to mention the dubious future of a government that may be out of office before many dollars flow to local transit systems.

Lost in all of this is a nation-wide crisis in funding for transit operations and maintenance, money that is needed today. Since 2020, special subsidies at all levels masked the severity of the problem to keep transit afloat for pandemic-era mobility and economic support. Those subsidies are ending, and transit systems are back to the problem of finding the next dollar to operate their services.

This is the boring stuff with few photo-ops, but a huge impact on making transit an alternative to driving, or not traveling at all. Money is needed to pay operators and mechanics to drive and repair buses, and to run enough of them that service is attractive and comfortable. Low cost transit is useless if it shows up infrequently and unreliably.

The situation is compounded by inflation in labour and materials costs, and revenue losses from ridership decline and fare freezes. Actions to keep transit operating as a credible, useful mode of transport through the pandemic were necessary and laudable, but the fiscal landscape has changed and cities are hard-pressed to sustain their systems as the special subsidies evaporate.

Many transit systems face perilous service cuts if they do not obtain sustained, improved operating subsidies, but the political situation in many governments is not exactly pro-transit. There are big bucks for construction of new routes and major upgrades, but running better transit today is quite another matter.

Global News recently produced a series of reports on this problem looking at several cities in detail. The consultancy Leading Mobility published This is the End of the Line in May 2024 reviewing operating budget funding and potential revenue tools in several cities.

Just getting “back to normal” with added funding is not enough with transit’s key role in supporting economic, population and environmental change.

For many Canadian transit agencies, new revenue tools alone will not be able to meet the growing fiscal challenges for transit operations. Each level of government has mandates, plans and policies related to climate action, population growth and immigration, equity, economic development and affordability that will significantly rely on useful, reliable and convenient transit service. [This is the End of the Line, p. i]

We tend to forget that the pre-pandemic TTC had severe problems with crowding that were not addressed by penny-pinching budgets. Creeping back to 2019 demand levels a few per cent each year will not address capacity problems transit faced five years ago, let alone the need for more transit, better connected communities and transit as a welcomed first choice for travel. The problem is compounded by a misleading TTC metric of service recovery that overstates how close to “the old days” we actually are. See:

The revenue tools proposed by Leading Mobility for major Canadian cities are based on some aspect of vehicle ownership or use, although several others were reviewed. Note that this would cover only the municipal portion of transit funding with operating contributions still required from other governments.

  • Vehicle levies
  • Off-street parking taxes
  • Vehicle kilometres traveled tax

A basic problem with vehicle-based revenues is the underlying premise that road users should pay for transit, and that new levies would divert travel from private cars to public buses and trains. This assumes that the transit network actually would serve the demand now handled by autos. However, Toronto’s system, as an example, grew primarily to serve commuting trips to the core area, and planning abandoned much travel to and between suburbs to cars. The dispersed nature of suburban residential and work locations makes transit provision much more difficult.

So-called business cases for major transit projects use the imputed value of time saved by commuters who would fly past traffic congestion on new lines. This is often the primary positive value in evaluations, and it strongly underpins building the fastest possible routes, sometimes at great cost. By contrast, the disincentive of a poor transit network is rarely discussed when the real political goal is to minimize subsidies by limiting service. Nobody talks about the cost of time wasted waiting for the Dufferin bus.

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Analysis of 63 Ossington – September/October 2024

This article reviews the operation of 63 Ossington in September and October 2024. This route operates from Eglinton West station to Liberty Village with a peak period short turn at St. Clair through Oakwood Loop. Historically, the route is a patchwork of former streetcar, later trolleybus, lines including Oakwood and Dovercourt. Service south of King Street runs through Liberty Village, formerly an industrial neighbourhood, and now a dense residential area.

Until early October, the route’s south end extended west to Sunnyside Loop replacing part of 504 King during road and track construction. On October 6, it resumed the standard looping through Liberty Village. With the new schedule, service was reduced during several periods, although in some cases not by much.

General observations:

  • Departures from Sunnyside Loop were irregular, but headways improved east of Roncesvalles because buses took their layovers on King Street, not at the loop.
  • Service was less reliable on the route while the extension operated, but improved with the return of the normal south end loop. Demand on the Sunnyside extension was rather light.
  • Ossington is a fairly short route (9km one way), but it is subject to some of the same problems as longer routes. Headway reliability is poor during some periods even though there are three locations where buses could be dispatched on a regular spacing: from the two terminals, and at Ossington Station.
  • There is some evidence of headway management at Ossington Station to restore proper bus spacing, but the effect is short-lived.

Note to readers: This article and a previous one about 129 McCowan North arose from reader suggestions, and I used them for detailed presentations of tracking data in various formats. Both routes had new schedules in early October, and this provided a chance to look at how service changed for the better or worse. For some, this will be a case of “TL/DR”, and I understand that this sort of thing is not everyone’s cup of tea. To those of you who love the detail, happy reading!

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John Tory’s Dwindling Legacy

In a report to City Council’s meeting on December 17, we learn that the cost of the five remaining “SmartTrack” GO stations has risen above previous estimates. See:

This is not the first time a cost problem arose, and back in March 2023, the City faced a similar problem: See:

Here is a map showing the five stations that remain in Toronto’s SmartTrack program.

The cost and funding shares are shown below.

DateTorontoOntarioCanadaTotal
Original$0.878B$0.585B$1.463B
June 2023$0.878B$0.226B$0.585B$1.689B

The Province has now discovered that the five stations cannot be built within the available funding, and the City Manager recommends that that three of the five be retained as City priorities: East Harbour, Bloor-Lansdowne and St. Clair-Old Weston. The rational behind the choice is:

  • East Harbour will be a major hub linking GO Transit, the Ontario Line and future surface transit including the proposed Broadview-Commissioners link to the Port Lands.
  • St. Clair-Old Weston will be serve an important node in the City’s planned revitalization and urbanization of that area.
  • Bloor-Lansdowne does not have such a strategic significance, but it is already under construction and is likely a less-expensive station compared to others like East Harbour and Liberty Village.

For the remaining two stations at Liberty Village and Finch East, the report recommends that Council:

[…] request that the Province identify a funding solution, including exploring funding opportunities with the Government of Canada, to deliver the Finch-Kennedy and King-Liberty stations at no further cost to the City. [City report at p. 4]

We do not know cost estimates for individual stations as these are in a confidential appendix thanks to Metrolinx’ desire for secrecy. As of June 2023, the cost for five stations averaged $338 million, and is obviously higher now. Taking available funding and dividing by three, instead of five, yields a cost of $563 million. These are surface stations, not underground, although some of them involve work beyond the station structures proper. For details, refer to the technical backgrounder.

The report gives no indication of Metrolinx’ position on this scheme and whether they would simply drop the two stations, or proceed on their own with stations that originally were expected to be “free” contributions to GO’s capital program by the City.

A related problem is that from the Federal point of view, it does not matter whether their money pays for a new GO station, subway trains, or any other project. It all counts against Toronto’s “share”. This has bedeviled transit schemes in the past. Council always has its “priorities” and assumes that everything that comes along will get at least a 1/3 share from the Feds. This is not necessarily a valid assumption given competing Federal priorities, not to mention a possible change of government. If the Feds won’t come to the table, the Province may also hold back on funding as they did with the new subway car purchase making their contribution contingent on a Federal commitment.

If the Feds do kick in whatever extra is needed, what other Toronto projects will go unfunded because our share was burned up on SmartTrack?

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TTC’s Dubious Short Turn Statistics

In the monthly CEO’s Report, one of the KPIs (Key Performance Indices) is a measure of the number of short-turned streetcars. This used to be reported as an absolute count, but is now expressed as a percentage of all trips.

Here is the most recent version:

This chart is a fiction born of the Rick Leary era when, in theory, all short turns were banned and the stats were made to fit the objective. Like many KPIs, this suffers from a combination of system-wide consolidation across all routes and time periods, as well as under-reporting of what is really happening.

An easy way to get the true count is to look at tracking data and compare two points on either side of a short-turn location. For example, Woodbine Loop at Queen and Kingston Rd. is a favourite spot for 501 Queen and some 503 Kingston Road cars to turn back. Counting the number of vehicles crossing Coxwell (west of the loop) with the number at Woodbine Avenue (east of the loop) shows how many cars did not travel east of Kingston Road and, therefore, were short-turned.

The TTC claims that they better their 1% target for trips short turned, but it is clear that they rarely achieve this. In some cases, the value rises above 20% indicating that although much service does get to the terminal, there is a good chance that a rider will encounter a short turn. This is separate from frustrations caused by gaps and bunching.

Short turns happen for many reasons including traffic congestion, too-tight schedules, service blockages for collisions, medical problems, parades … it’s a long list. Riders really don’t care. The basic point is that service they expected to receive is not there, and usually with no advance warning.

The table below summarizes the statistics from the vehicle tracking records in November 2024 for the period from 6am to midnight. It is clear that even on an aggregated level, the proportion of short turns is much higher on these routes that the TTC KPIs indicate.

Updated Dec. 6/24 at 1:30pm: Short turn counts for 504 King eastbound, 507 Long Branch and 508 Lake Shore westbound trips added.

Note: The legends on the original charts in this post were misleading. They have been changed to better reflect what the columns and lines on the charts represent..

RouteLocationTotal TripsShort Turns% Short Turns
501 QueenWoodbine Loop EB35471985.6%
Roncesvalles WB35372477.0%
503 Kingston RdWoodbine Loop EB32521364.2%
504 KingSpadina WB64532564.0%
Roncesvalles WB327536411.1%
Church EB63191262.0%
Parliament EB61982043.3%
Dundas EB2943712.4%
505 DundasParliament EB30402127.0%
Lansdowne WB306239713.0%
506 CarltonCoxwell EB30312939.7%
Lansdowne WB325657217.6%
507 Long BranchKipling WB2074883.0%
508 Lake ShoreKipling WB193199.8%
512 St. Clair (*)Lansdowne WB206824912.0%
Oakwood WB21131225.8%

(*) For 512 St. Clair, only data from November 14 onwards when streetcar service was restored are included.

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TTC Board Meeting Dec. 3, 2024: Follow-Up

This article is a follow-up to TTC Board Meeting: December 3, 2024. The following items are covered here:

  • Accessibility Plan and Family of Services
  • Work Car Hydraulic Leak Incidents
  • Seasonal Prohibition on Lithium-Ion Battery Powered E-Bikes and E-Scooters
  • Retirement of Legacy Fare Media

See also:

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