TTC Budget Update: More Service, Maybe

Today, the TTC held a special meeting to consider revised budget information in advance of a City Budget Committee meeting later this week.

When the Mayor announced that he did not favour a fare hike in 2011, this cut $24-million from the TTC’s projected revenue for the year.  $16m of that was made up with added City subsidy, and the remaining $8m was left for the TTC to find internally.

The proposed service “reallocation” would have saved $7m to be used for upgraded services elsewhere in the network, but the decision to roll back some of the planned changes reduces the savings to $4m and creates an additional $3m hole.  This brings us to an $11m total requirement.

The TTC has now recalculated its projected revenue based on the higher anticipated riding (487m vs 483m in the original budget) and on a higher anticipated average fare (1.5 cents more per trip).  These combine to add $7m to the projected revenue.

Additional savings will come from:

  • Less overtime ($1m) and less hiring to provide for filling open work (35 positions, no dollar value).  These are related in that shifts with no assigned crews must be operated by spare operators or by overtime.  The combined effect of these “savings” may be that some service will not make it to the streets especially during bad weather when absenteeism tends to be higher and the desirability of overtime lower.
  • Fewer Supervisors ($1m).  Plans to add 17 Supervisors for better on-street route supervision are deferred.
  • Bus operator recertification ($1m).  The planned change in the recertification cycle from 5 to 3 years (so that bus standards match those for rail modes) will not be implemented.
  • Gapping ($1m).  Vacancies will not be filled immediately as they occur, and restructuring of the workforce will be used to take up the slack.
  • Escalator maintenance helpers ($.2m).  This is a program set to begin late in 2011 that would allow more flexibility in the use of trades staff for escalator repairs.
  • 28 capital budget positions are dropped by reducing the scope of the Bus Rebuild Program and deferring the Fare Validation Equipment Project (about which I will write separately).
  • 3 operating budget positions in IT are dropped by not converting contractors to staff and absorbing the workload within the existing complement.

Some of the items above directly affect the rollout of Customer Service initiatives which I will describe in a separate article now in preparation.

A critical paragraph is at the bottom of page 1:

“This process will … permit us to decide in June if we are in a position to recommend adding service in September to address ridership growth consistent with our 2011 projections of 487m customers.”

To put this another way, the statements, often made, that “reallocations” of service effective in May would go “for the greater good” to other routes, may turn out to be a false promise.  If ridership and, especially, revenues stay strong through the next few months, the TTC may feel confident enough to actually improve service in September.  However, what was only last week a sure thing, the deal that gave the “reallocations” a patina of respectability, may already be coming unglued.

5 thoughts on “TTC Budget Update: More Service, Maybe

  1. The TTC Commissioners do really seem to be doing their planning (if that’s a word one should use) on the back of an envelope. Of course, readers of this site realise that figures can be obtained from TTC management that will serve to explain almost any course of action and I suppose that we should not really expect Commissioners to be able to “join up the dots” or wonder why, for example, extra supervisors were necessary last month but can now be axed.

    If we are to have greater cleanliness, greater reliability and better service (for some) it is hard to see how some of the latest ideas will pan out. Though I certainly do not like the idea of a fare increase it seems unwise (at best) to avoid having one by making the system dirtier, less reliable and probably worse.

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  2. I don’t believe this phoney budget for two reasons.

    1. It assumes a zero pay increase. Since the union has already agreed to arbitration, it looks like this will be an arbitrated contract. If anyone thinks that there’s a single arbitrator in the entire universe who is going to hand out a zero increase settlement… there is a job for you on the Rob Ford budget team.

    2. I don’t believe in a zero fare increase either. What my crystal ball says is going to happen is that as soon as the arbitrator awards a pay increase to the TTC employees, that’s when we get hit with a fare increase. Blamed, of course, on the Evil, Awful, Big Bad Unions, who are in bed with the crazy arbitrator. Rob Ford loves his scapegoats.

    On both the cost and the revenue side, it is my belief that the current TTC budget is a fantasy of bovine effluent.

    Steve: What is noteworthy in this update is a trick that shows up over and over again. They simply adjust the fare projections and, presto chango, $7m appears out of the air. Why wasn’t this announced sooner? Meanwhile, improvements that are intended to give better “customer service” are put off to the future.

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  3. This meeting was a surprise. Is there a video feed or web connection where one could have seen the proceedings from a computer or TV?

    Steve: No.

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  4. Somebody should tell the TTC about the Gravy Train at city hall. Millions of dollars are being wasted every day on retirement parties and metro-passes, and if we stop all that then there will be no need for any service cuts!

    Steve: Whose retirement? Whose metropasses?

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  5. Last week they voted in favor of service cuts to a number of routes and now they’re saying they may need to increase service again. All of this flip flopping sounds like a Transit Commission that has no idea what it’s doing.

    Steve: The service increases (maybe) are the ones to be paid for by the service cuts. They will be at different times of the day and locations. Having said that, the problem is that this model cannot be continued forever as “less productive” parts of the system gradually fall off the map to pay for the main routes.

    Now, there is some question of whether they can afford the service adds the cuts were intended to fund, and next year’s budget looks even worse than this year’s. The shell game of “reallocations” is falling apart already.

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