The TTC Capital Budget contains many projects that address the renewal and expansion of the subway fleet, although this information must be collated from various sources.  When we discuss what might happen in the next decade on the subway network, it is important to know what is already provided for (whether it is actually funded or not) in the plan as opposed to what would become a “surprise” addition.

The largest component of the plan relates to capacity, especially on the Yonge-University-Spadina (YUS) line.  The YUS already suffers from at least at a 10% backlog between demand and the capacity actually provided, presuming that the service runs more or less to the advertised headway.  Bloor-Danforth (BD) is not as critical, but planned service expansion to 2020 will bring the scheduled headways to or below the level that can be operated with the existing terminal layouts and signalling.

The current plan does not include any provision for the effect of major additional demand caused by extensions other than the Spadina line to Vaughan, aka the Toronto York Spadina Subway Extension (TYSSE).  There is no provision for the effect of extensions on either end of the BD line.

As the fleet grows and headways decline, there are two immediate effects:

• storage and servicing for a larger fleet require more yard space and maintenance capacity in carhouses
• service must be scheduled and operated on timings with little room for delay, and no padding for recovery

These effects, or rather the TTC’s attempt to address them, show up in various ways in the overall plan.

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