Toronto Council’s agenda for today, February 10, 2015, contains a series of “Administrative Inquiries” by Councillor Josh Matlow regarding various aspects of transit plans for Scarborough. The City Manager’s response appeared late yesterday, but it was not exactly packed with revelations.
In theory, the inquiry process provides a way for questions to flow directly from a Councillor to City staff bypassing the usual mechanism of committee reports where administration majorities might strangle debate. In practice, the information released might or might not fully address the question.
Mayor Tory’s position is quite clear: the subway debate is over, and Matlow’s questions are simply attempts to reopen the question on matters that are already known and decided. Would that it were so simple. Subway champions should pause in their dismissal of Matlow’s position because the report shows how much we don’t know, or at least are not being told, about the subway project.
1. “Sunk Costs” for the Scarborough LRT
When Council approved the switch from LRT to subway technology in October 2013, part of the agreement with Metrolinx was that Toronto would absorb the cost of work-to-date on the discarded LRT plan, subject to an audit to validate an estimated $85 million pricetag. Matlow asked two simple questions:
- Has the City Manager executed an agreement with Metrolinx to pay the sunk costs?
- What monies are allocated in the City’s 10-year capital plan for this expense?
Recent discussion through the media on these points has been rather odd. On one hand, the City Manager repeatedly declined to put a specific number to the costs; on the other, Councillor Pasternak (he of the “North York Relief” subway, aka Sheppard West from Yonge to Downsview) mused that Toronto should not have to pay for the LRT work even though Council agreed to this.
In the City Manager’s report, we learn that the audit is complete, and that staff are finalizing an agreement regarding provincial funding of the subway extension which will take into account the amount agreed as an offset for the sunk costs. However, as the Star revealed yesterday, on December 30, 2014, Bruce McCuaig, President and CEO of Metrolinx, wrote to the City Manager formally accepting an offer of settlement in the amount of $74.8 million. The City Manager agreed to this in a reply dated January 9, 2015. Given this exchange of letters, we know that the settlement has been finalized, subject to Council approval, for over a month.
2. Operating and Capital Maintenance Costs
With the change from a provincial LRT project to a municipal subway line, responsibility for operating and maintenance costs falls to the City and TTC budgets. However, Toronto seeks an offsetting credit from Ontario equal to the amount it would have paid were the line a Metrolinx operation. Capital Maintenance (major repairs and replacement of assets such as vehicles) is estimated at $30-40 million annually, although this is a cost that starts low for a new line and builds over its lifetime.
However, there will also be operating costs on the TTC’s budget related to day-to-day service and maintenance, and these have not been provided, net of any new fare revenue, in reports to Council. (In fairness, such an estimate was not provided for the LRT option either.)
Matlow’s questions are:
- What are the estimated operating costs?
- How much of a property tax increase would be needed to cover the capital and operating costs due to the subway?
- What is the status of negotiations with the province over these costs, and when will the results be reported to Council?
On the first two questions, the City Manager replies:
TTC will be undertaking an estimate of annual operating and maintenance costs for the SSE, following Council determination of alignment and service levels noted above.
Council approved the subway option in late 2013 and, at the time, only two alignments (the “City” one via McCowan and the “Glen Murray” version via the SRT corridor) were on the table. Additional possibilities have arisen quite recently thanks to issues with competition from the SmartTrack scheme, but one might hope that the TTC would already have a ballpark estimate of operating costs if only for planning purposes. They know how much it costs to operate subway lines and stations, and they could roughly estimate the amount of bus service the subway would trigger.
If the line does go to Sheppard, some bus routes that now cross south of the 401 to STC might be shortened, but this could be offset by increased demand and the need for greater service to feed the subway. The TTC might not have the detailed network drawn out, but one might reasonably ask whether they had any sense of comparative costs going into the LRT/subway debate in the first place.
Now we are told that such an estimate will not be available until Council chooses an alignment for the new subway. That’s right — Toronto must decide where it wants the subway and only then will we learn how much it will cost. This is a continuation of an ass-backward pattern where “assessment” of transit projects ignores basic questions that could inform decisions. Indeed, “affordability” is supposed to be a criterion, and yet critical information will not be available.
Needless to say, negotiations with the province re cost sharing are still underway, and there is no indication that Queen’s Park even accepts the premise of an offset between Metrolinx LRT and City subway costs. A challenge for any agreement on this account will be a time and/or dollar value limit on provincial contributions, and quite obviously such an agreement would require firm estimates of the comparative costs for both schemes. However, if the process described by the City Manager is to be believed, this information would not be available until after Council has selected a subway option.
3. Extension of the Scarborough Subway Study Area
Matlow asks three questions:
- Why does the study area exclude Agincourt GO Station?
- Will ridership estimates for the subway extension take into account the effect of SmartTrack?
- If the subway is shifted east to McCowan, would riders further west be more likely to use SmartTrack than the subway?
The City Manager replies that the subway study will examine whether a more easterly alignment would better serve a larger part of Scarborough. His reply is interesting because of the equal role it presumes for both subway and GO/SmartTrack services:
The study area has been broadened to the east (i.e. Markham Road) to explore alignments which would complement the SmartTrack proposal and potentially bring rapid transit service to a larger proportion of Scarborough residents.With that approach in mind, given that the Agincourt GO area is planned to be served by both SmartTrack and enhanced GO service, it is considered more appropriate that the subway serve other areas, further to the east on Sheppard Avenue.
This reply, of course, assumes that services on the GO line can be considered as equivalent to the subway, but that is a huge stretch on three counts.
First is the question of fares. We know that GO Transit’s pricing is considerably higher than the TTC’s and there is, as yet, no “co-fare” arrangement for a discounted through trip from a TTC bus feeder onto a GO train. Although SmartTrack has been touted as “integrated” with the TTC, it is not certain whether this means it would operate as a TTC fare service with no premium. Obviously, SmartTrack itself will bring added net costs notwithstanding claims by its proponents that its ridership would cover its cost of operation. That claim is based on demand estimates wildly in excess of the likely capacity of the service to be offered.
This brings us to the second question, the level of services on GO/SmartTrack and on the subway extension. We know already that the TTC only plans to operate half of the peak service beyond Kennedy Station (a headway of 4’40” on current schedules). GO’s RER will at best provide a train every 15 minutes, and SmartTrack will be something under 15 minutes, but at a level yet to be determined. Both services in the rail corridor are constrained by capacity of that corridor, of the Lake Shore East corridor and of Union Station.
Finally, it will be difficult to design a feeder bus network to serve both the subway and SmartTrack unless Scarborough’s routes are gerrymandered even more than today (with the focus on STC Station) to force-feed one or both routes. Should the TTC’s grid arrangement of routes be torn apart to funnel riders into a subway station at Sheppard (whose exact east-west location remains unknown) or into, say, a Finch SmartTrack station?
All of these factors affect all of the network options. As for the effect of SmartTrack on a Markham Road subway alignment, the question is premature because nobody has studied this configuration. That work will be done as part of the SmartTrack assessment which is a separate, but parallel, undertaking by Metrolinx, TTC and City staff.
4. Does the Proposed Subway Budget Include Enough Trains?
Matlow notes that the subway budget includes $125 million for 7 subway trains including one spare. The City Manager confirms that the budget assumed a service design of sending alternate trains beyond Kennedy Station to Sheppard much as service now turns back at St. Clair West in the am peak on the 1 Yonge-University line. The actual equipment requirement for the extension will be determined once the alignment (and hence both demand and running time) is settled.
As I have already noted in discussing TTC fleet plans, there is currently a surplus of T-1 subway trains, and the TTC’s plans show six of these being assigned to the 2 Bloor-Danforth line when the extension opens. No new train purchases for BD are included in the fleet plan until 2026. This is an example of a cost (replacement of the T-1 trains earmarked for Scarborough) that could be pushed beyond the initial extension project’s budget into a future capital maintenance expense early in the life of the extension. The TTC owes Council a fleet plan that clearly shows provision for additional trains for the Scarborough extension and which budget line (subway extension or fleet replacement) they will be charged to.
Is this a budgetary dodge to free up money that would have been spent on trains to pay for additional project costs elsewhere?
5. Ridership Estimates
Matlow poses five questions about ridership on the subway extension:
- Will more detailed estimates be presented to Council before it moves further with the extension project?
- What modelling system produced the increased demand estimate for the subway option of 9,500-14,000 peak passengers in comparison with the LRT option?
- Was this model consistent with that used for previous (i.e. LRT) projections?
- Will SmartTrack effects be factored into projections for the subway extension?
- Have the erroneous projections for the Sheppard Subway (and by implication the validity of the demand model) been taken into account?
With respect to the next Council approval, the City Manager states:
Detailed ridership forecasts will be reported through the required approvals process for the SSE’s Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP).
Once again, the idea that Council might make an informed choice regarding the subway option and its alignment is missing. Instead, they will be expected to choose a subway route without knowing how it might perform or how the larger network might behave.
The original 9,500 riders per hour estimate for the “LRT” option presumed that the STC was its terminus when the model was run in 2006 by the TTC. In fact, at that point Transit City did not exist, and the project under study was a replacement of the SRT with upgraded RT trains, but no extension. The model used provided a 2021 estimate and this was extrapolated to 2031.
The 14,000 riders per hour estimate for the subway option presumed that it would run north to Sheppard, and it was based on the City’s 2031 modelling for the Official Plan Review.
Timing constraints did not allow for the results to be refined using the TTC’s transit assignment model. The study terminus was assumed to be Sheppard Avenue rather than Scarborough City Centre. Other modelling assumptions that differ include frequency of service on the subway extension and other lines assumed in the future transit network.
Yes, most certainly there were differences in the City model notably that the projected demand would require better service than the SSE plan actually includes. At 14k/hour, the demand would completely fill an alternate train service running north from Kennedy to Sheppard.
As for the “future transit network” it is unclear just what this might entail, but almost certainly this would not include frequent GO/RER service nor SmartTrack, neither of which had been proposed when the subway modelling and Council’s decision occurred. This is a common problem in “regional” modelling for TTC projects — the absence of the commuter rail network as an option for long-haul trips from the 905 and outer 416 into downtown. If frequent service, especially at a TTC fare, will be available in the GO corridor, what will happen to that extra subway demand? Indeed where in the modelled universe does that demand originate? Are we building a subway to serve Scarborough, or to serve commuters from Markham?
Finally, on the question of the mismatch between Sheppard Subway forecasts and actual ridership, the City Manager reports:
The current ridership on the Sheppard subway is not directly comparable to the estimates in the environmental assessment. The extent of the subway as built is much shorter than that considered in the environmental assessment. The ridership forecast in the environmental assessment considered an alignment linking the North York and Scarborough City Centres. The first phase of the line was initially planned to extend from Yonge Street to the Consumers Business Park, but was subsequently truncated at Don Mills Road due to funding contraints.
The land use as projected at the time of the environmental assessment, particularly employment, has not materialized, though residential development has occurred in a manner that is consistent with the subway investment. Employment uses, particularly office development, generates significantly more transit ridership than residential development.
The difficulty, of course, is that the employment node in Scarborough was supposed to be STC, but this has been slow to mature and more recent development has been residential, not for employment, a form that moved elsewhere, notably to the 905. A major problem with any suburban non-residential development is that employees will come from all over the GTHA and most will not originate in the catchment area of a transit system, especially if the development is expected at an outer terminus. By contrast, downtown is fed by many lines connecting with a wide range of residential neighbourhoods. This directly affects how a development might be structured — around transit or around a large parking lot with easy access to an expressway.
There has always been much talk of making the area around STC into a major node, and recent planning efforts now focus on the McCowan Precinct, an area immediately east of STC. How this area will relate to or be served by the transit network, including services reaching beyond the 416 boundary, is something of a mystery. The precinct is large enough that a single rapid transit station, especially one at the western edge, cannot serve the entire area.
Any ridership projections for the Scarborough Subway must explain how workers destined for jobs it might serve will actually make their “last mile” connections between rapid transit stations and job locations.
Conclusion
The City Manager’s report is not outright evasive, but it demonstrates the amount of information Toronto Council does not yet have about rapid transit options for Scarborough. If Council chooses to commit to multi-billion dollar projects without fully understanding the implications, that’s a political decision.
Between the Scarborough Subway and SmartTrack, we see two projects that have an air of inevitability, that brook no questions about their validity or even the degree to which they duplicate each other’s function.
The great irony here is that absent SmartTrack, Toronto would be discussing regional transit improvements on GO and a local improvement with the subway. SmartTrack is a hybrid, welcome in the sense that it accepts the possibilities of the commuter rail network for travel within Toronto, but oversold as a near-subway service when that is not physically possible.
If anything, the network studies for GO, SmartTrack and TTC subway options are more important than the Scarborough Subway option alone. The network study includes multiple agencies with overlapping, but certainly not identical, preferences and priorities, and there is a chance that it will give a clear understanding of how the many parts might fit together. Some proposals may change, some may fall off of the map completely, but at least there will be a framework for the decision.
Steve Munro 
Which is exactly why I would firmly oppose any subway in the Pape/Broadview corridor unless the city allows high density tall buildings in that area.
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Royson James from the pro-Downtown Toronto Star is calling for both the subway and LRT plans for Scarborough to be scrapped and to instead just retrofit the Scarborough RT so that money can be moved from Scarborough transit projects to the Downtown Relief Line subway that is allegedly going to help Scarborough (if it’s going to help Scarborough, then let us ask the people of Scarborough whether or not they want it before spending tens of billions of dollars on a DRL that will run mostly empty).
Royson James says, ‘the subway option everyone considered “overkill” or “overbuild” for a corridor barely dense enough for a fully separated LRT or RT’ I laugh when I read his articles. If everyone considered the subway option “overkill”, then it would NOT have been approved by all 3 levels of government and hundreds of thousands of people in Scarborough who approve the subway project, I imagine he does not consider human for he does not include them when he says “everyone”. So, the high density Scarborough Centre area is barely dense enough for fully separated LRT or even RT? Then what about the low density Pape area that he advocates a subway for (which is not even dense enough for bus service and which is why it does not even have bus service) and Royson James wants a subway there? This guy is unbelievable and I am surprised that Toronto Star would publish articles like this (precisely why I cancelled my subscription 4 years ago and will never spend a cent more on it).
Steve: There are many problems with the premise behind James’ article, but I am not going to rehash them here (that’s been done already). As for a DRL, everyone talks about “low density Pape” as if that’s the only place it would serve. That’s like ridiculing the Sheppard Subway by pointing at Bessarion Station and ignoring Don Mills.
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Well that depends on where they’re going, doesn’t it? If they’re going downtown, then it’s extremely useful. They can ride the 116 to Kennedy, then transfer onto the subway. If Kennedy wasn’t there, they’d have to go all the way to Warden.
Of course a station at Sheppard and McCowan would be even more useful, but they’d still have to ride a bus there. Just as they’d have to ride a bus to Sheppard and Markham, or STC, if the SSE terminated there. We can’t run subways to every major intersection in Scarborough. (Of course, if the Sheppard LRT gets built, they can ride that to Sheppard and McCowan, or Don Mills Station, and never get on a bus).
But what if they’re not going downtown? What if that person at Morningside and Sheppard wants to get to Morningside and Lawrence? Or Markham and Finch? Or Warden and Steeles? None of the proposed SSE routes would help them in any way. In fact, it might hurt them, since the buses will be oriented to the subway, meaning they may have to transfer buses more than they do right now.
We obviously can’t build subways to serve all those destinations. What we can do is try to let the experts in planning figure out where the most common travel patterns are, and build appropriate orders of transit to fit those needs. Notice that the downtowners that some people suggest are just hating on Scarborough are doing exactly this: they want a subway where demand warrants for a DRL, but for the East Bayfront, they want LRT because it is appropriate there. Building a subway just because Scarborough “deserves” a subway is a backward and destructive proposition.
And I think it’s worth remembering that people who live at Morningside and Sheppard chose to live there. Obviously there are lots of things that went into that decision, but in the end they valued the things that neighbourhood offered them (perhaps larger yards, less congested traffic, better schools, less crime, family nearby, etc) over the alternatives at a subway-served neighbourhood. They made that trade-off when they chose to live there, and while I absolutely understand the desire to have their cake and eat it too, they don’t inherently “deserve” that.
UTSC students coming via subway don’t use the SRT. There is a Rocket bus (the 198) from Kennedy. So right now it’s already subway to bus.
Of course, the Transit City plan had an LRT that ran to UTSC that would likely be operational right now, had our former mayor and his support in Scarborough not opposed it. In fact, when the Pan Am aquatic facility as UTSC was seeking approval, it was put to a referendum among UTSC students. In exchange for a subsidized aquatic facility and a fast-tracking of the LRT to serve UTSC, students at the time were asked to vote in favour of raising their own tuition. To charge themselves for infrastructure that would not be seen until long after most graduated. To pay for something they would likely never use, for the good of the school and the city.
They voted in favour. When Rob Ford cancelled Transit City, he didn’t say one word to those students. Neither did any other councillor, or anyone from the province or Metrolinx. They’re not happy. Here’s an article on it.
Like so many other groups, UTSC students have been used as a political football. All they want is the LRT line(s) that were promised to them in good faith to serve their campus. A subway that won’t come near the campus or even serve the next generation of students, let alone the current one, is hardly a consolation.
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Didn’t the original Transit City plan have an LRT line in every ward in the city that didn’t already a subway stop?
Steve: It may have worked out that way, but it wasn’t deliberate. Necessarily any new line would not run too close to existing subways. Southern Etobicoke only makes the list if you include the WWLRT which was already on the books, albeit moribund.
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Joe M. says:
FALSE. Metrolinx scrapped the Malvern LRT from it’s next wave before Ford was around. Again Scarborough was never getting a funded network.
Also I’ve gone over at length the need for local transit as well (BRT or LRT). But if we have to choose only one plan be it Subway or the current LRT plan … Then I doubt the LRT hack job stands much of a chance unless they go back to the drawing board & fund a proper network.
Steve: Actually, Metrolinx was ready to announce an extension of the Sheppard LRT south to UTSC (Rob Prichard called it the “Morningside Hook”), and it was to be announced once the election was out of the way. Rob Ford won, and the idea died. You may be correct on the so-called Malvern LRT (which didn’t actually go to Malvern), but you’re wrong about UTSC. I know this first hand, not from any biased media invention.
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I have a couple of issues here, not least of which is not all of Pape is low density. The Pape and Cosburn area is quite dense. Yes there is a substantial pocket of lower (not low) density around it, however, where in the city is there a large area of high density? The alignment that is there, if you are looking for sustained density, is better than the vast majority of the city, most close to or above 10k/sq km. The low density areas would be called high elsewhere in the city. (See maps in previous article regarding population density). There is a reason Steve made a point of posting a link to the Healthy City Maps, and the article. Yes there is an area in the western shoulder area that is similar density, however, the subway connection there is not currently overloaded.
Ultimately this is about diverting riders around Yonge Bloor, as well as providing local service as a side benefit. It is about connectivity. However, please look at the maps attached to the article that Steve’s previous density post point too. Note the colors (splashes of red) near Pape and Cosburn, in Thorncliffe and Flemingdon Parks, and how the rest of the line is mostly orange or yellow (the low density portions) note how to the east in Scarborough the high density areas are yellow, and low density ones are green, as they are in much of the rest of the city. The Pape alignment picks up the very dense areas cross valley shown in the maps, and that south of the valley. As far as local density is concerned it is hard to see an alignment that makes any sense that does any better.
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I was imagining a single subway line zigzagging all over Scarborough to hit all the important destinations. An actual network of rapid transit routes could serve lots of wards in a really logical way; but considering the cost, it’s unlikely you would get that with subways. Toronto doesn’t have a subway network now; extending it through Scarborough isn’t going to make it any more network-like in the future.
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And from what I understand, they’re still hoping that an extension or spur to UTSC might be in the cards if the thing ever gets built. An LRT connection was a critical component to their massive North Campus expansion plans.
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Joe M says:
You’ve mentioned this before & nice that you have that inside information to the political games being played by the Province that very few others have everytime the wind changes direction.
Steve: It’s not “inside” info, just covering the Board meetings and chatting with senior folks during media scrums afterward.
For the province’s “arm length” experts to keep adding, removing, changing the plan for political gain has just added more fuel to support the subway movement. Which the Province quickly joined in for guess what? Political gain.
So what are we to believe? Sometimes it’s best to keep it simple when dealing with political planners. No matter what the cost they never seem to care as long there’s votes to be gained.
The subway is a clear upgrade over the Scarborough LRT for commuters in route design (TBD) and convenience. The Sheppard LRT is questionable at best & whatever else the Liberals had up their sleeve it’s anyone’s guess.
In this climate it’s best Scarborough continues in the subway direction. And 30-50 years down the road if car congestion becomes unbearable & buses can no longer travel within reasonable time frames. Politicians will likely be forced to fund a proper local rapid transit plan.
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The “LRT hack job” is everything you’ve ever written on the subject, not the imperfect but fiscally responsible plan to build good transit to many locations in Scarborough that existed prior to Rob Ford’s election.
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Joe M:
I get what you are trying to say. But fiscally responsible needs to be tied into responsibility to the end users as well. This LRT plan missed the mark from an over Scarborough commuter standpoint.
The LRT plan clearly wasn’t a good enough plan to garner much support to those that would use it. I believe the support would have been greater for LRT if the Scarborough LRT route was modified & the Malvern LRT was fully funded.
The reality is that a subway would provide far greater conveniences for those who will not only be in close proximity to it but will also be more attractive to those that were left off the LRT map. The subway would extend to a closer proximity for the majority & provide a faster uninterrupted ride. On top of extra transfer the LRT would force stops at locations where very few care to travel to. Many commuters avoid with the current RT already for these reasons.
The Sheppard LRT in it’s current form is questionable in convenience & purpose which calls into question whether it is fiscally responsible. Steve mentioned there was suppose to be a hook to UTSC. That capital has never been touched & if the Province was serious they still could have announced extension as a last resort to give the line some purpose & help promote it before it falls off the radar. I’d have to believe it’s all but dead.
Now remember I’m all for LRT or BRT as a fiscally responsible option. But if it’s not planned well enough to attract the majority of would be end users. It becomes fiscally irresponsible.
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I don’t believe that for one second. I believe that the primary opponents of the LRT were those who wouldn’t ride it (ie drivers who don’t want constructions or their precious left-turns impeded). I also believe the debate was poisoned by the Ford administrations which used a combination of ridiculous rhetoric and bald-faced lies to tarnish the image of LRT, compounded with promising Scarborough residents a subway plan which they could never possibly deliver.
I firmly believe that if the Eglinton Crosstown were already operational and so residents could see what a true LRT looks like, or if the debate around the two technologies was limited to the truth, then the LRT plan would have garnished far, far more support among Scarborough residents.
Will it? Consider that far fewer people will be able to walk to the subway than to an LRT. So most people will have a much longer walk or (more likely) have to ride a bus there, eliminating the “uninterrupted” nature of the ride. The bus ride will be much slower than an LRT, which will easily shave off any nominal time savings from that distance they get to travel via subway instead of LRT. Oh, and when their bus arrives at the subway stop, they’re looking at a potentially 10+ minute wait for a subway during non-peak hours, unlike the LRT which would have been substantially more frequent.
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There are some other costs on page 75 of the TTC Capital Budget which include: $132 M for extending the life of the SRT from 2015 -2024 and $123M for SRT decommissioning and demolition. These are in addition to the sunk costs of $75 M, are they not? Why is no one talking about this?
Steve: This was all part of the Scarborough Subway project and is included in its budget.
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Joe M says:
Two of the LRT stops won’t be missed as much as you believe. They form a small group in the overall scheme & the majority of riders will be bused in to begin with. The subways stations will also likely be placed in much more optimal locations to serve higher volume areas. You mention the wait time for a subway. Yet there will be that wait time following the LRT to Kennedy station. So basically BUS to LRT to Subway & wait. Tough sell.
To respond to your first point regarding how you perceive Scarborough commuters LRT opponents possibly as “dumb & naive”. Many commuters drive for the simple reason that the TTC doesn’t serve any efficient use to them out here. The subway will be much more attractive for these commuters than the LRT option for reasons I listed in my previous post.
The LRT plan needed to be funded more extensively to serve more residents for it to overcome the shortfall of transfers & questionable stops. It missed the mark.
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I assume that you mean by this the initial project funding and “Big Move” portion of the projects, as opposed to the unfunded portions that were to follow.
My problem remains Joe, that we should be looking at what is required, and then getting real funding. It is painful that we propose LRT in little drops and then cave and do subway in a large chunk. Yes 3.8 billions buys more than 1.4, however, if we are going to actually secure 3.8 we should go back and get the most for those dollars. We should also campaign hard with Hydro to get the most flex inside the Gatineau as possible. I would have prefered to see the Crosstown LRT run through Kennedy and onto Kingston road. I believe the transfer from what I understand from the SRT conversion was going to be a good one, as was the one from Sheppard LRT to subway (unlike the incredibly bad one now).
I think it is also really important, to remind ourselves we are right now dealing with an Ontario Government that does not have a lot of money, and any project is subject to cancellation. The LRT projects did not stop because Rob Ford said so, they stopped because an Ontario Government hard up for money pounced on the excuse. (The City is entirely subject to provincial whim, and they had a deal). The province if it were not playing politics could easily have continued. I would not be surprised if the subway is studied to death (as in so much that it is delayed so much that all will be frustrated). I would actually suspect that the reason the province is not pushing that hard to get a deal done, is well, if we let the current one lapse, we can let time pass, and maybe walk away or at least delay delay. I really hope that is not the game being played, but I look at provincial finances, and how things have gone the last few years. Little built much discussed. Little really truly committed past the point of study and initial engineering that costs truly big bucks.
I think we would have been much better served affirming LRT, and pushing to get it built now. Then during the next election secure a couple billion more, and so on. I looked at how Calgary handled their initial funding from the Alberta government, and how they managed to keep securing small chunks of money every couple of years. The amounts were small enough they were easy to commit to (and would be even from this Ontario Government). Remember much of the original funding in Alberta was secured in some less prosperous years. The politics of subway are perforce a project a decade or every couple of elections. LRT could and should be a billion here for these 2 ridings, a billion there for those 2. Buying elections with LRT would mean having to do so more often more with km in more places. I will believe the subway is fully funded, sometime after it is completed, running, and the operating budget for the TTC is stable.
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It looks like a huge mistake was made for political reasons. In June 2013, Metrolinx determined that the best solution for transit in Scarborough was the connected SRT/Eglinton line. Unfortunately, at that time, Mayor Ford was at the start of his historic fall. He just lost a major transit vote on Council (cancelling the Sheppard subway) and the crack scandal was just beginning. If a report showed that the Ford (actually Ford-McGuinty) plan was the best, it may have re-invigorated the Ford supporters and increase his popularity once again.
So Metrolinx and the Province decided to bury this report. Without this report, Council decided in the Fall of 2012 to re-instate the Transit City version of LRT. Still without this report, in 2013 Transportation Minister Murray began to encourage City Council to explore the subway option. The Liberals even won a significant by-election in August promoting the subway. Only after a Freedom of Information request from Michael Schabas did the Metrolinx report finally get released. However, it was released very quietly and by that time the subway hysteria had already been deeply rooted with the public and in many political reputations.
The following obvious questions need to be asked:
1. In light of the facts, should the province be the ones who are responsible for any LRT cancellation costs because they withheld critical information from Council?
2. When will we tell the truth to the public and tell them that neither the Subway nor the Transit City LRT is the best solution?
3. When people say that we should do fact based transit planning, are they really saying that they support this connected SRT/Eglinton line?
4. When can we start using the connected SRT/Eglinton line as the base case and look for ways to improve it and lower its cost – after all, it will only help in terms of benefit-cost and make the option even better?
Steve: The Eglinton-Scarborough line was broken apart at the TTC’s insistence, not by those of us who were supporting Transit City nor by Metrolinx/McGuinty.
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With so much anti-Scarborough sentiment among influential Downtowners like Royson James, Olivia Chow, etc; I really wish that the Village of Scarborough had supported the Yankees during the war of 1812.
Steve: With so much misinformed bilge coming from Scarborough Councillors, I am surprised there isn’t a move to secede. I’m quite sure when the time comes for a property tax increase to pay for better transit anywhere west of Victoria Park, we will here from the “no new taxes” brigade in full force.
As for the Village of Scarborough, yes a few peasants and their pitchforks might have helped the Yankees, albeit at a considerable distance from York which was, of course, inaccessible because they refused to build a subway out into farm country.
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Except if only every second train will run east of Kennedy, then in fact the wait time for a westbound train will indeed be twice as long. IIRC the TTC models wait times for transfers at a 50% premium, which means that 10 minute wait at STC (name a future station) is equivalent in a rider’s mind to 15 minutes moving on the bus (or LRT if it hadn’t been axed).
Steve: The extra wait will only be inbound in the AM peak if the same operational model is used as is now in place on the YUS.
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And where does one find a copy of this suppressed report that was only released because of the actions of Michael Schabas?
Steve: It is on the Metrolinx website.
I’ll be brutally honest and say that it is now very hard for me to trust one report made by one organization that is directed by political or personal financial interests. I’d be much more likely to support a project if a number of independent reports over time recommended that project.
Fortunately, this being Toronto there is a very large collection of reports that one can go through and arrange according to corridors to be served. Or one could just read Ed Levy’s book.
Cheers, Moaz
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I thought Metrolinx was going to run the line, not TTC?
Steve: At the time of the split, it was still to be a TTC operation.
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Joe M:
I agree with everything you mentioned until this paragraph. Scarborough doesn’t work like Calgary in terms of politics. Scarborough faces far too much political resistance & lack of geographical understanding from other Toronto ridings to work together on a progressive plan. Whatever Scarborough gets built in this wave is likely all it’s receiving for at least another generation no matter what the plan.
Thanks to this political chaos Scarborough has found itself in a decent situation at the moment. Worst case it’s likely to receive $3.8 billion worth of subway & possibly Smart track on the western edge. There is also a remote possibly one of those caring & highly intellectual Downtown councilors quickly formulates a $3.8 billion dollar secured LRT network for Scarborough & have the Scarborough citizens vote between the subway or full LRT plan in the next election.
I would much prefer the full scale LRT option myself but I understand the powers of political games in the Province & City far outweigh common sense & the subway extension will be welcome addition over the current LRT scheme.
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But isn’t this $255 M an additional cost that would not have been incurred if we built the LRT?
Steve: Yes. The RT would have been shut down after the Pan Am Games rather than being nursed along for another 8 years. The guideway and stations would have been renovated for LRT operations, not demolished. The cost properly belongs on the “subway” side of the cost comparison, and it was included in the overall project budget. Conversely, the LRT budget included money to operate the interim bus shuttle while the line was rebuilt.
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If ‘the TTC only plans to operate half of the peak [Scarborough subway] service beyond Kennedy Station’ doesn’t that mean that many riders will NOT have a one-seat ride past Kennedy but will have to get off one train and wait for another? Wouldn’t that be almost as upsetting as transferring to an LRT to ride past Kennedy?
Steve: If they follow the pattern on the YUS, the short turn will only be in the AM peak, and so this would only affect outbound riders in the counterpeak direction.
The BD line now operates with 45 trains on a 2’21” headway in the AM peak with a 106 minute round trip time. Assume that half of the service continues beyond Kennedy, and that one of the six trains to be added to the service is consumed by turnback operations there — this means that 5 trains at 4’42”, or about 28 minutes would be required for the extended round trip to Sheppard for a total round trip of 134 minutes.
If this is operated with 51 trains and no short turn, the headway for the PM peak would be 2’38” which is slightly worse than the 2’31” now provided. Two more trains would be needed to get down to 2’31”, and I suspect that the TTC can squeeze these out of the fleet.
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“A Few Questions About Scarborough”? What about “A Few Questions About” Downtown? Is Downtown really the centre of the Universe? Why does everything new have to be Downtown? Is a Downtown Relief Line really needed or is it just the latest new toy for the latte sipping Downtown elite? I dare say that Steve and his followers would still be discussing Scarborough LRT even after the Scarborough subway is up and running which it will.
Steve: You do your arguments disservice by insulting remarks like this. I could choose to paint all Scarberians as beer-swilling, know-nothings who want the rest of the city to subsidize their boundless desire for rapid transit lines, a sop to supposed third-class status. I don’t, and I thank you not to make comments like this either.
There is a demonstrable need for more medium range subway capacity into the core, notwithstanding SmartTrack and other schemes, on a sufficiently short time scale that we have to at least talk about the route for planning and budgeting purposes. The beneficiaries of such a route will not be “downtowners” but people living in what we used to call “inner suburbs” for whom subway capacity is increasingly consumed by people from the outer 416 and 905.
For the record, I have had two lattes so far today, and did not sip either one.
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@Joe, on a provincial basis the 500 million or less to get substantial portions of LRT fall below the radar of city wide politics. It is the large single shot projects that give the feel of me or you. As Moaz has noted before the best transit improvements are those that are hardly visible. Once LRT is present in the city and accepted I would expect to spread with projects that are highly visible locally but not so much beyond. A hundred million dollar a year spending promise does not make waves in the province so you would not even notice, but would build a km or 2 of LRT every year. Once the barns and repair facilities are in place. LRT could, even in Toronto, just quietly creep across the landscape. The MP and councilors being able to brag without ruffling feathers elsewhere, because 100 million could also be spent in the west end. Downtown needs only a handful of Km, but needs to find a ROW to the west, and start building to the east. Think of quietly adding 2 Km of LRT every year, in Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke. A lousy $300million spending promise. It requires initial facilities but after that…
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A subway can’t be built in the medium range which is precisely why improved bus service is the answer for Downtown Relief until SmartTrack is up and running. Besides, there is no money for such an expensive project as the Downtown Relief Line. Let the Scarborough subway expansion be the last expansion to Ontario’s subway system.
Steve: “Medium range” refers to the area served, not to the timeframe which would probably be to aim at about 2030. That’s only 15 years away which by subway planning standards is almost tomorrow. Buses cannot hope to provide the needed capacity.
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@Joe m . Also Joe if it is subway Scarborough gets I would agree it will be hard to get more (of anything). Start up costs for LRT are the large and visible portion. Also large capital expenditures after a subway expansion of that magnitude will be scrutinized by others. 100 million here or there for a existing LRT network will likely be seen as a mere tweak. I think it would be easy to expand LRT in Scarborough (or Etobicoke or North York) once you have car house etc.
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@Joe If I lived in Regent Park, Moss Park, St. Jamestown, or any of a number of other “downtown” neighbourhoods, I’d be really PO’ed with you and all the others who constantly bash the folks who live in the core. As Steve has said many times, over and over and over again, the DRL won’t benefit these people, except to free up some space to get on a Yonge train south of Bloor. What they’re looking for is effective movement of the streetcars and buses through their neighbourhoods, and replacement of the old surface vehicles that have passed their best before date.
It’s people like you who feed the petty, parochial rhetoric of the suburban members of city council.
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15 yrs is too long. I am an old man and I need relief now and in fifteen years I should be dead.
Steve: I was trying not to sound like a greedy downtowner. It is possible that GO/RER/SmartTrack will buy us a bit of time, but we should be planning the DRL now so that we know where it will go and sort out protection of the route alignment and stations.
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Marcus Gee wrote in today’s Globe an Mail a rather good summary of what the future will look like for transit in Scarborough, considering all the plans that are now on the table.
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First off I am not the other Joe & don’t ever agree with small minded generalizations. That’s one thing that’s always bothered me with the media’s constant narrow minded perception & narrative of Scarborough. It’s never fair to generalize citizens.
Saying that there is a much greater amount of financial & political power in certain areas in an around downtown. That is where the frustration stems from & the driver behind the political inequality of Toronto. These groups have their pocketbooks in the media, courts, & political parties to swing the pendulum in their direction all to often. (These are our Latte sippers)
Steve: However, not everyone “downtown” is in the social or economic class you describe. There may be a higher density per square kilometre, but the false leap is made from this to assuming that all advocates who oppose the Scarborough Subway project are from this group. It is precisely this assumption that leads to generalizations about the motives of we latte sippers.
The majority of Scarborough has grown tired of receiving the short end of the stick in terms of quality development planning, public funds, downtown project overruns & the constant false narrative media barrage.
You may not understand it as an outsider but this is why you have the politics of today being played. Quite frankly we don’t want our Scarborough Councillors to back down. All of the sudden financial waste & “facts” are a major concern to downtown politicians who have minimal interest in Scarborough future.
The subway is more than a transit improvement. It’s years of inequality, unfair media perception, & the associated frustrations of not being heard.
Steve: That is complete crap. Scarborough’s planning has been controlled over the years variously by Scarborough Council, then Metro Council (on which the old city had a plurality of votes only in the early years), and now by the amalgamated City Council where old Toronto (which is not all “downtown”) has roughly 1/4 of the votes. If Scarborough (and other suburbs) gets the short end of the stick, don’t blame “downtowners”. Don’t forget that your own politicians supported Transit City when it was first announced, and only changed their tune when the option of building a subway “for almost the same price” as the LRT lines came along, coupled with shameless vote buying. If “downtown” wanted a similar deal, we would have been told to get stuffed.
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@Joe M. What substantial addition to transit has been made beyond minor surface transit route changes to accommodate 140k additional residences since 2000. That would represent what an added 300k, or about 40% of Scarborough’s pop added in the 15 or so years and there is the assertion that downtown gets all when the 30 year old streetcars are replaced. New subway was added about when? Paid for by whom? Downtown subway was built before Metro due to overloaded streetcars.
Toronto voters have voted for lower taxes (especially those supporting Ford). All projects were pushed back!! This has been the real issue Scarborough, Etobicoke & North York voters wanting lower taxes and supporting cancellation of capacity appropriate transit. I would bet a subway along say King or Queen from the Ex to east of the Don would probably attract 9-14k peak riders, that would be a service for Downtown, but it has few advocates. I would suggest that another 100k residents are going to be added downtown, and there might maybe be 5-6 km of light LRT added, although I would expect this to be more like 3-4. This simple single streetcar in a median style ROW.
So stop looking to downtown, and start voting for public service. Subway for Scarborough has the advantage of being free for the next term while study is done, as opposed to requiring spending today. This is a question of being able to buy votes for free. Those who support LRT are looking for construction starting now, those for subway support at least 4 more years of study.
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Seriously? I never said anything remotely close to that generalization. I am stating there are groups around “downtown” who have much greater power to influence via media & political funding. If you are blind to that. Than you’d never understand. Although it’s hard to see something when you are also the slight beneficiary of the narrative on not on the receiving end.
Steve: The last time I looked, the Scarborough Liberal Caucus at Queen’s Park and the Scarborough members of City Council seemed to be doing quite all right on their own. Then there are the folks in places like Vaughan.
@ Malcolm N :
The Political inequality is bigger than transit. The frustration is just boiled over into the Scarborough transit debate.
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Joe M:
You provide solid data & some I always agree with. But this data has never been used to make these decisions in our Province (Vaughan … if you more need example I can provide a laundry list) A subway extension within 10 years is much better than the Scarborough LRT for many reasons. It’s certainly worth fighting for out here.
When your taxes are being wasted on major overruns in the already HIGH capital downtown centric projects, selling lower taxes to the public is not difficult. But like most poltical moves cutting taxes without proper thought creates further damage. Politicians on both sides never go after the root cause which in most cases is caused be vote buying, corruption & campaign influence for private gain. Ford’s actions a mayor were HIGHLY questionable & even contradictory to his own platform at times but his politics reflected the views of many Torontonians. And no not just the crazy loony toon far right wingers.
Which is why I think you’ll see a similar style Mayor next term. There are way too many disenfranchised citizens in the suburbs as well as some areas in and around downtown.
Steve: While we’re on the subject, what are these “major overruns” you keep talking about downtown?
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The key for John Tory to ensure the Scarborough subway gets built is the following: make sure that you spend enough money on it in your first 4 years that your successor can’t cancel it in the event that you don’t win another term which you obviously won’t if you won’t move ahead with your campaign promise of the Scarborough subway ASAP. It’s time that subway finally comes to Scarborough. The above ground cold weather exposed stations we have are not subway and even Kennedy station inside temperature was minus 26 this morning as there is hardly a tunnel there and it is all exposed just west of the station. Plus service is frequently cancelled east of Main Station due to treacherous track conditions in the exposed portions in Scarborough. So, please bury the whole line east of Main Station. The winters in Scarborough are too harsh for streetcar / LRT / exposed transit and even GO Trains should be buried.
Steve: “Exposed just west of the station”? The line is not exposed until just east of Warden Station, two km to the west. We have cold, exposed stations elsewhere on the subway, not just in Scarborough.
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This idea that Scarborough gets the short end of the stick on transit infrastructure is nonsense, but the idea that it’s people downtown who are somehow screwing them is completely insane. Since the last time downtown got any new subway stations (nearly fifty years ago!), Scarborough has had two subway extensions (Victoria Park/Warden and Kennedy) and the SRT built. Since the last subway expansion in Scarborough, as far as I can tell downtown has had just one expansion of the streetcar network (the 509) which mostly ran on existing track. Last year, downtown got their first new streetcar in nearly 30 years.
It’s not like billions are being spent on infrastructure downtown. Instead, that money has been spent in Scarborough, Etobicoke, and especially North York, building infrastructure that funnels into the downtown’s subway and streetcar system. Scarborough wants a subway extension to make it easier to get downtown, but talk about expanding the infrastructure downtown, where those people are going, and they complain that they’re getting screwed. It’s insane.
And I say that as someone who lived in Scarborough for more than 25 years, and still works there.
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The sad state of politics aside …
It would be amazing if both sides could agree to use the more than 3 billion secured on an extensive, funded & complete LRT/ BRT project through Scarborough instead of the subway.
And not only that fill in the gaps through the rest of Toronto.
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I will agree to no subway expansion in Scarborough only if ALL of the demands are met:
1) No further subway expansion in the Greater Downtown Area
2) No further wastage of money on extremely expensive new streetcars (including no additional 60 streetcars) and also cancellation of the current order with FULL refund citing delays and breakdowns. If streetcars are necessary, then we can purchase cheap used ones from elsewhere.
Steve: In your dreams.
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There are a couple of questions I would have here.
1. Which projects are you referring to?
2. What are the local equivalents?
One of the politically sensitive issues of late has been the replacement of the streetcar fleet. What people seem to be missing in this, is that the bus fleet has been turned over a couple of times in the period since the last time streetcars were replaced. I would agree if someone were to ask the question as to why we do not buy streetcars in slightly smaller batches, so that it is not quite such a crisis or an issue when they are up for replacement, buying half every 15 years might make more sense, although there might be purchasing power issues.
Another has been the track work that has been done. One of the issues here, is that the tracks are not elsewhere in the city, however, the areas that have tracks also have extremely high traffic counts, and have a look at equivalent spending for larger roads carrying similar numbers in your own areas. How much is spent on road reconstruction in every area of the city. The numbers are massive every time roads, water line or sewer line reconstruction is required, well that is basically the same. The roads that have heavy buses also require periodic reconstruction, and it is very expensive, just because it happens everywhere in the city, people are not conscious of it. Well in downtown the road bed may also include tracks. These can carry more people, last longer, but are nowhere else (although they should be). Again here, it would have been better if this was not seen as a big bang.
Waterfront Toronto, is yes a massive redevelopment, however, this was originally an area of federal control, and when they started this redevelopment (I mean way back as the Harbour Commission), they got massive real estate money for it, and made certain commitments. I would be willing to bet that this project even with overruns, will still show a tidy net cash flow for the federal government, and certainly a huge boost for the coffers of the city. It takes money to turn a dead harbour area into dense area of residence and office, however, I would be willing to bet this has been a massive tax boon for the city. I would not be surprised if the single year increase in tax take for the area that has been created in the last 20 years would pay for a substantial portion of the multi year project.
Yes 510 Spadina was a nice little project, as was St Clair, however there have been a number of redevelopment plans either underway, or completed in various areas around the city, including Scarborough. I would put to you, that when you add huge numbers of people and massively increase the tax base in an area, some additional services are required.
There are region wide facilities located in the core, however, where else would you put them? Are you sure the residents closest to them actually like being next to the Roger Centre or the ACC? I would be willing to bet their location is really based on subway, and more materially (otherwise they would be at Yonge & Bloor) Union Station.
So Joe, have new buses been bought since the early 1980s, any road reconstruction? Any new tracks? The subway is also experiencing some reconstruction, as should the RT. Remember that when you count things, you need to take into account that about 140k new condos have been built or at least approved downtown since 2000. Also remember, those business in the core need infrastructure and services as well.
The real issue is not that too much money has been spent on infrastructure in the downtown, but that we have managed to talk a lot but do nothing. The Waterfront West LRT plan is actually a very good symbol, one that I cannot help but notice, of transit and infrastructure in general in Toronto. There has been at least 3 or 4 plans, but absolutely zero construction.
Other than 2 questionable projects little has been done since this was first proposed. Vaughan should not have been built as subway beyond York U, and Sheppard should have been LRT to start with the portion close to Yonge in tunnel.
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I gather that you think that people are selling streetcars in extremely good shape. I would suggest that if we are going to do this, we should also be perfectly happy buying used buses. Remember the streetcars we are replacing are 30+ years old. If you look in Europe you will see even older ones in operation. If we are looking at spending, I think we should be looking at spending per residents all in, for their total trip. Most of that downtown subway is being used by others. The people in the outer areas forget how much more road maintenance, road clearing etc they get. Also when they use the subway, how much more subway they are using.
If you are going to compare, need to look at the population, where the employment is, and what money is spent on every service not just transit. 1800 buses in operation and 247 streetcars, and the streetcars are the issue. What does the TTC spend on replacing buses, in an average year, vs streetcars per rider carried? How much more would having enough operators cost?
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