The debate about whether Toronto should undertake a Scarborough Subway in place of the proposed LRT line will occupy a good deal of Council’s time this week even though it is likely to wind up with a subway endorsement. We will hear a great deal of information, some of it true, some of it best described as creative fiction, and some just plain wrong.
Expecting the gang of 45 to understand all of the details is a huge stretch, and this is complicated by a critical lack of information. Many questions have not been answered, nay have not even been asked.
How Council can undertake a $1-billion or more project without being fully informed is baffling, especially for such a bunch of right-wing, penny-pinching fiscal conservatives. The times, however, demand a political statement, and we’re going to start by giving Scarborough a subway, no matter what it takes.
Here are a few questions responsible representatives of we, the voters and taxpayers, should be asking.
To Minister of Transportation, Glen Murray:
- Is Toronto going to get the full $1.8-billion originally budgeted for the LRT plan, or will the amount be $300m or more lower as stated in the letter from Metrolinx to Council?
- Is the provincial contribution indexed for inflation to the point where spending occurs, or is it capped? If so, at what value?
- If Council approves the subway, but this is subject to Ontario providing $1.8b indexed for inflation, will the government say “no” and force Toronto to pick up the balance?
These questions are central to understanding just how much provincial subsidy the subway project might receive. There is a difference of about $500m on the table, and this would have a substantial effect on any new financing scheme Council would have to approve.
Murray has been all over the map with comments about funding the subway saying he won’t negotiate, but also saying that he awaits Council’s position on the question. Council needs his answer to make an informed decision.
To Metrolinx:
Until now, confirmation of the shutdown and reconstruction plans for the SRT/LRT conversion have been through private emails. TTC Chair Karen Stintz repeatedly cites a four-year shutdown even though in recent correspondence, Metrolinx has confirmed that they want to finish the work in three years. In private conversation, an even shorter term was discussed, but Metrolinx is unwilling to commit to this until they received detailed proposals from bidders on the project.
- Will Metrolinx make a public, unqualified statement about the proposed shutdown period for the SRT including closing and opening dates for a period shorter than 2015 to 2020?
- If the Scarborough LRT does not go forward, what is involved in making the Malvern segment north of Sheppard a spur from the Sheppard LRT? What would be involved in adding this to the Sheppard project, and when could it open?
- What is involved in building the northern segment of the so-called “Scarborough Malvern” line to extend the Sheppard LRT south to serve UTSC campus?
These questions speak to the actual effect of an LRT construction in the SRT corridor, or alternately, what might be done to increase the reach of the Sheppard LRT that will now be feeding into an extended Bloor-Danforth subway at McCowan.
To the TTC:
These questions speak to the accuracy of the estimated subway project cost, the margin of error in the estimate, and the future operating and capital maintenance cost of the subway extension.
- The capital cost estimate for the subway option is stated with a ±30% range of possible actual values. How much work is involved to narrow this margin considering that the upper bound would expose the City to an additional $1b in project costs? Can the TTC provide a more accurate estimate before Council makes an irrevocable commitment to the subway project?
- What is the operating cost of the existing subway system, and how much would this be increased by extending the BD line to Sheppard? What are the capital budget implications for additional maintenance in future years?
- If the capacity of the BD subway line must be increased to handle new demand from Scarborough, what are the implications for timing of the fleet replacement, expansion of the fleet, and storage/maintenance in a post-extension environment?
- What will be the effect of added demand on the BD subway for the Bloor-Yonge and St. George interchanges, capacity problems on the YUS subway, the need for a Relief Line, and the timing of related capital expenditures?
To the City Manager:
- Your report cites a recent demand estimate for the subway option based on new land use data, but does not include an estimate for the LRT option on the same basis, only the original 2006 value. Why not, and what are the apples-to-apples demand comparisons for the two proposals?
- What specific changes in the land use model caused a jump of roughly 50% in the projected demand on the subway? Does this depend on major as-yet unapproved development or zoning changes?
- What are the implications for future tax rates and development charges of each $1b of capital spending on this or any other project?
- How close is Toronto to its debt target, and how much more transit financing can it afford within that target considering other known demands on City capital resources?
To TTC Chair Karen Stintz:
Both Chair Stintz and CEO Andy Byford are on the record saying that the TTC cannot absorb another flat-lined operating subsidy. They are also on record supporting the (Downtown) Relief Line. Their commitment to Waterfront transit improvements is not as clear.
- What are your plans for the 2014 operating budget, and more generally for improvement of transit service in coming years?
- What new or improved bus services do you plan to operate in Scarborough in the ten years leading to the opening of the subway extension?
- What currently unfunded transit capital programs cited by the Chief Planner as top priorities for the City do you intend to support, and when will this support appear by way of “above the line” budget proposals?
We can have an informed debate about transit options for Toronto, or we can have a great deal of sound and fury leading to a pro-subway vote that settles nothing because there will be so many unknowns. Stay tuned.
Steve Munro 
If the SRT subway goes ahead, I think Sheppard LRT is dead, as it would then become impossible for the trains to commute between Eglinton & Sheppard…. at least until that Morningside thing connects Eglinton to Sheppard.
Steve: Each line will have its own shops, and some subsystems could be trucked to the “main” shops (presumably Mount Dennis) to avoid duplication of facilities.
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There will be an interesting situation. Politically, the replacement of SLRT with a subway deals a blow to the whole LRT concept. Sheppard becomes less likely to survive and new LRT lines are less likely to get funded.
But from the network perspective, adding LRT feeders to the extended BD subway actually becomes more sensible. In particular, Sheppard East LRT will now have two connections to subways. Downtown-bound riders who board at Sheppard & Midland, or Sheppard & Brimley, will be able to take a ride east and get onto the BD extension.
The peak ridership of Sheppard LRT (approaching Don Mills) will probably go down. But the total ridership might actually increase, as more riders will have a convenient connection.
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What? No questions for the mayor???
Steve: He would trot out one stock answer “everyone wants subways” regardless of the question asked.
Meh … if council decides the suburbs only get subways, I say downtown protests and demands streetcars exclusively … waterfront, Bay, Bremner/Fort York, Parliament and Jarvis just for good measure – make them all exclusive right of ways … so everyone in Scarborough can’t drive into the city and has to use their shiny subway to get downtown … that way everyone is happy … they can bury the Gardiner, but no exits into downtown, just a straight drive out to Mississauga 😉
Steve: Now let’s not be greedy, and especially don’t ask for a streetcar line where the demand does not warrant it.
But seriously, I would be asking the mayor how much he is willing to raise taxes for the downtown relief line … 5$? 10$? … otherwise they are going to have to short turn trains at Kennedy so that they don’t overload the system.
I’d also be asking the TTC what effect it will have on reliability, we know the longer the route is the harder it is to manage … will we need more sidings and other crossovers to allow for fixing service in the core if things get out of whack at the end of the line?
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Isn’t that why Gary Webster preferred the Sheppard LRT being constructed first ahead of the Finch LRT? Or is there a different reason that the Sheppard LRT was to go first?
Steve: Sheppard went first because it had better prospects, “showed the flag” in Scarborough and would be part of a wider network. Finch was more isolated.
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Metrolinx’s LRT versus Subways farce has gone on far too long. It’s time to admit – once and for all – that NOTHING is going to get built in our lifetimes.
How can you, Steve, and the rest of us who want to see Metrolinx JUST BUILD what Council agreed to last year, tolerate any more of this endless nonsense? The present Scarborough subway versus LRT debacle is the most demoralizing situation one could imagine!
Let’s face it – the transit-expansion game is over. It’s going nowhere. From my perspective, it’s abundantly clear that Metrolinx is going to build nothing as long as the present toxic mix of an indecisive City Council, an anti-transit mayor and a waffling Province of Ontario continue on their destructive course.
Guaranteed: the powers-that-be will call next for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT and the other LRTs on the drawing board to be halted while new studies on subways are conducted. You can count on that happening with the same degree of assurance as knowing the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
Your mayor must be dancing with glee in the aisles at seeing how well his strategy to defeat the “war against the car” is succeeding. Things could hardly be working out more favourably for Rob Ford.
The time has come to dismiss the entire Metrolinx expansion program as a complete farce and total waste of our time and energy. Instead, let’s devote our energies toward getting the TTC to clean up its act. There are many relatively low-cost strategies the TTC could implement, if only it were willing, to alleviate streetcar and bus bunching, etc., and provide a better quality of service on the routes that exist today. These are strategies that you’ve been discussing at great length.
I am very angry and saddened to see the Metrolinx transit expansion program falling apart. Under the present circumstances, it doesn’t stand a chance at getting underway and succeeding. There are far too many destructive forces at work for it to be able to do so.
Steve: The real proof will be how engaged the Liberals will be in pushing the “Investment Strategy” in the 2014 budget and the election to follow. Much will depend on the coming by-elections, and how confident the Liberals are that raising taxes to pay for more transit will actually sell.
For Metrolinx’ part in this, my disappointment is that so much of their “publicity” was of the “rah rah” variety without clearly demonstrating how various projects would address travel demands and congestion. Too much piecemeal presentation, and projects falling off the table, or at least into distant phases beyond our lifetimes.
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If one has to find silver linings in this embarrassment, it could be that running BD to the eastern suburbs will make the Relief Line more politically palatable, both because Scarborough will have been “taken care of”, and because all those suburbanites will now see just how crowded Bloor-Yonge is. (Heck, let’s call it the Scarborough Get-To-Work-Faster Line if that’s what it takes to get it built.)
Steve: If the DRL was called the Don Mills Subway and went at least to Eglinton, it would have been built decades ago. TTC screwed this up by lopping off the north end thereby making it into a stub line serving Riverdale.
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What are your thoughts on something totally radical for Scarborough, such as the idea of having electrified 2 way GO service?
Steve: The north-south Stoufville GO corridor runs in the same alignment as the inner part of the SRT, but does not serve STC nor the northeastern part of Scarborough. GO service would have, at best, subway-type station spacing, but unlike a subway would be restricted to the existing corridor. If that’s what we build, it will serve a very different demand pattern than the LRT or even the subway line, and will leave major parts of Scarborough far from transit.
This of course presumes that electrification and substantial service increase of service in this corridor is a “go”. The electrification would not stop at Steeles, but would have to continue out to the somewhere in the 905, and in to Union Station. This could not be done as a stand-alone route, but as part of a GO electrification project. That’s worthwhile in its own right, but serves a different regional purpose with its own timeframe and budget pressures.
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Isn’t one of the biggest changes that for the higher estimate the line extends north of the 401 to Sheppard, rather than terminating at Scarborough Centre.
Isn’t the other big change the addition of other transit lines now planned, most significantly the Sheppard East LRT which will funnel more riders onto the Danforth subway at McCowan, among other changes such as the Eglinton Crosstown, DRL, and the BRT from Scarborough Centre to Pickering?
It’s not surprising that the forecast demand has gone up! With changes like that, we’d expect that.
Steve: I have no problem with running a new demand model, but it’s rather convenient that this happens just as there is a political desire for a subway, and that a comparable run to model the LRT is not included in the report. And, by the way, the TTC’s January 2013 report including the lower demand estimate has the subway running all the way to Sheppard.
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I have a feeling this is going to turn out to be impulse buying with taxpayers’ money by elected officials. I suspect most of council or voters don’t know what LRT is. For example I find most people don’t know that Sheppard and Finch will be will be widened for the LRT lines so there will be no car traffic capacity loss.
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Usually, a threshold of 10,000 pphpd is used to decide between on-street LRT or subway. But if the right of way is fully grade-separated, can the same logic be applied, only with the threshold increased to reflect the practical capacity of a grade-separated LRT line?
I figure that 10,000 pphpd comes from the capacity of 3-car LRT trains at 3 minute headways (150 people / car) * (3 cars / train) * (1 train / 3 minutes ) = 9,000 pphpd, and then add surge loads.
On an exclusive right of way, the headways can get as low as 1′ 35″, so the new capacity would be (150 people / car) * (3 cars / train) * (1 train / 95 seconds) = 17,000 pphpd. Can this be considered as the new threshold to decide between LRT and subway?
Or does this threshold logic no longer hold under exclusive right-of-ways?
Steve: That’s the general idea, although I would not take things down below a 2′ headway due to terminal delays. 30 trains/hour gives you 13.5k design capacity with room for higher surges. There is a lot of fudging going on with demand projections in the Scarborough corridor and talk of the subway attracting much new riding from outside the 416. This sounds like the demand model has no increases in GO service built into it, exactly the same flaw that has been used to bloat subway projections for decades in Toronto. Convenient that the increased “demand” materializes just when Ford needs it, and with the model run only for the subway option, no LRT, no GO. Staff are not doing their job, or results are selectively reported.
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From this debate, one thing is for certain. The private sector is not paying for it. This is a debate on the allocation of public money. The effect of crowding out must be understood before this debate can go on. How many other projects will be sacrificed so that a few metro lines can be built?
Mr. Ford is like a dinosaurs from the past. He is fighting a war in the past where every one works and plays in downtown. The employment in Toronto is quote dispersed which means that the metro extension would benefit few but increase the burden of many. Even if he can raise $500 million per year for transit, it will be decades before his dreams of a Sheppard West extension, Sheppard East extension, Finch West and the Scarborough extension be completed. During that time, nothing else can be built. We will also be looking for additional money to build up the ridership on those lines. It is dishonest to lowball numbers just to get a project to go through.
If the TTC ran just more Rocket routes, it would benefit many more people. Just imagine what would happen if there are Rocket routes from Morningside to Kipling on Steeles, Finch and Sheppard. Even if Mr. Ford can build all those lines mentioned above, for most people, their trips will begin and end with a bus.
In my view, it would be far better to do a 3P with Bombardier. If the Eglinton crosstown and the SRT ran continuously using ICTS technology, it will get built a lot quicker. Private consortia can use alternative construction techniques without the political baggage or a public managed project.
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The money for the Scarborough subway can be found by
1. Cancelling the Sheppard LRT, a line Scarborough doesn’t want due to the traffic disruption it will cause by taking 2 car lanes of Sheppard.
2. Building the Scarborough line cut and cover. I think businesses will put up with the temporary inconvenience in exchange for the subway.
The non Scarborough councillors like Perks and Minnan Wong simply want to keep all the money for their beloved DRL. Perhaps Scarborough councillors should demand that the DRL be an LRT.
Steve: The Sheppard LRT will free up a curb lane now badly congested with buses, and will not generally take away road space from cars.
I suggest you ask residents and businesses who have dealt with major surface projects like water main replacement and streetcar track rebuilds just how happy they are with the disruption. Subway construction would take much longer.
The DRL will not be an LRT because the expected demand on the line exceeds LRT capacity, and almost all of the line has to be underground. It makes more sense as a subway linked to the existing network than a new, totally underground LRT line.
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It’s not about moving ppl, it’s about votes!
If it were about moving ppl there would be a line starting at Eglinton & Don Mills to Pape Station all the way to and along Lake Shore to Dufferin and up to the Eglinton West Subway – THAT would actually help ppl get around town AND take stress off of the Yonge line!!!
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Electrification of the Stouffville line is so far down the list of priorities, I would say “not in our lifetime” (2063). You have the UP Express, Lakeshore East/West, Kitchener, Milton, and Barrie lines all ahead of it. Even then, two-way all-day service is limited by Union Station (at capacity until 2031), so you’d need to build a new downtown station/corridor anyway.
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Watching the Scarborough subway debate at Toronto City council on my computer, I find myself appalled that millions and maybe billions of dollars are going to be squandered on this ‘Scarborough wants subways, subways, subways’ issue. If Rob Ford represents leadership, I feel desperately for the sheep who follow. This debacle will haunt Toronto for years.
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Didn’t anyone read the Metro newspaper yesterday?
This is the best, most comprehensive plan yet, not just for Scarborough but for the entire region. To my mind, it is attractive enough to woo a lot of motorists out of their cars even. It really warrants a thread unto itself.
Steve: This is a separate plan from the whole subway-vs-LRT debate in Scarborough, and is more in tune with moves to electrify GO and run intensive service. There are many, many hurdles to this, but for Scarborough, the important point is that better GO service on the Stouffville corridor, and new GO service on the CPR through Agincourt, would give direct downtown service for those who needed it, while leaving the LRT network free to serve local demand within Scarborough. Neither line serves Scarborough Town Centre whose location was dictated by a developer’s shopping mall (just like Yorkdale), not by transit-oriented planning.
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I cannot believe I heard the Mayor on the CBC this afternoon stating that the Scarborough LRT was going to take up road space and be affected by traffic lights. This buffoon is planning on wasting a billion dollars or more for an unneeded subway and he doesn’t even understand the basic parameters of the debate. After two years of seeing our city deteriorate because of spending restrictions – a billion or more dollars (and 300 million of LRT Development costs) is going to be wasted and paid for by a 2% tax increase paid for by the whole city.
Don’t get me wrong – I am proud to pay my taxes – and if we were not in an era when people refuse to pay tax and politicians lie that we can “have it all” for free – I would be willing to pay for more subways than probably make sense. However, with tax resources strictly limited – what is squandered on one unworthy project is not available for necessities. The Mayor has, for example, threatened to curtail maintenance of community housing, despite the fact that there is a horrendous backlog. This is so that he can avoid a tax increase to the middle class – who can well afford to pay. If the billion being squandered was invested in community housing the backlog in repairs could be virtually eliminated.
While no one knows the Mayor’s true motivations other than himself, I strongly suspect that the only reason he loves subways is that it gets those pesky transit users out of the way of his SUV. He provides no evidence that he understands the true needs of Scarborough transit users – or those anywhere else. While money is wasted in Scarborough, where is the money for decent bus service for people on (for example) Finch West. Freezing the operating budget does nothing to support these types of problems.
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During the debate at City Hall, it was remarked that the St. Clair streetcar has a higher density than either the proposed Scarborough Subway or LRT. Is there some truth to that remark?
Steve: I believe that this refers to residential density along the line. I believe that this is correct, although one has to be careful with defining what “along the line” means. If we say “within x metres of a station”, then a streetcar line “reaches” a more-or-less continuous strip from one end of the line to the other. There is high density development scattered all the way from Yonge to west of Bathurst, with more to come, and continuous low-rise on almost all of the rest.
By contrast, stations on the SRT, SLRT and subway routes are further apart and so miss huge blocks of potential walking-distance ridership, especially the subway. Advocates for the subway say “people don’t walk to the stations, they take a bus”, but this ignores the fact that the TTC typically runs terrible service over top of subway lines even when the stations are widely spaced. Feeders into the stations run on streets where the stations are located.
Good examples of this effect can be seen on Yonge north of Eglinton and on Sheppard from Yonge to Don Mills where those who live between the stops have been disserviced.
The City publishes profiles for each ward that can be found through the directory of Councillors and Wards. For Ward 21 (Joe Mihevc), the population density is 7,410 people per square km. This ward contains the central part of the St. Clair line. For the next ward east (22, Josh Matlow) the density is 7,650/sqkm. Out in Scarborough, Glenn de Baeremaeker’s ward (38, including STC) has 4,430. All numbers are from the 2011 census.
Before everyone jumps on me, yes, I know that we should really go down to the census tract level to see the individual chunks which could be considered parts of each line’s “density”, but these numbers show the general issue that density in the “old city” tends to be higher.
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According to a Star article from today, Minnan-Wong has broke ranks with Ford and his other allies to criticize the Scarborough subway extension proposal as a fiscally irresponsible “vote-buying exercise”. So would this encourage other councilors to be more fiscally conservative on the SRT replacement issue and stay with the LRT option?
I was observing reader comments in the above article and also an article by Royson James and an article about Hudak’s pro-subway stand.
In the 3 articles, I have noticed a much larger ratio of pro-LRT readers to subways-only readers. Previously, reader comments in the Star seemed to see-saw between the subways only and pro-LRT camps. The reader comments in the Star seemed to be of better quality showing better knowledge of detail. Is public opinion changing? Or is this just the latte-drinking elite coming out to speak?
Steve: I am noticing a shift too, and a general literacy about the details of issues at stake. Possibly we are now hearing from people who realize how this decision affects them, as opposed to knee-jerk Ford supporters who just parrot the misinformation the mayor spews at every opportunity. Now as for the Sun’s website, well, I don’t spend much time there, let alone read the comments. Who knows what will happen if/when Sun Media goes bankrupt.
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Looks like we won’t have to wait until the next provincial election to see the death of the Sheppard LRT.
Steve: I am waiting to see how Karen Stintz survives her machinations of being pro subway, pro responsible spending, and pro LRT but just not on the SRT line, after the reality of the financial situation hits. What will she use to buy votes if this whole scheme has fallen apart by next summer?
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Well that debate today was certainly not informed.
Steve: Yours is a model of understatement.
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I think this question can be improved: it only addresses the up-front spending, not the continuing cost; and the continuing cost is extremely important to Toronto as we’ll be picking up the operating deficits.
I suggest, therefore, that it be refined to “each $1-billion of Net Present Value of spending”.
I also have a question that should be addressed to all parties: “Just what is the problem we are attempting to solve with this project?”
I find it hard to believe that anybody would agree that the problem is that ‘Not enough people are within walking distance of a station’. That might be a consideration in calculating the benefits, but being within walking distance of a station is not an end in itself. I have met very few people who believe that a major problem with Toronto is that when they go for a walk, they rarely pass a transit station.
As suggested before, I believe that the actual problem in Toronto is congestion and its impact on commute times and therefore on labour mobility; as before, I suggest the MetroLinx report on congestion costs in Toronto be taken as a place to start; and that the benefits of any given project (or set of projects) be measured in terms of reduction of these costs.
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@lukev
The process to undo the Sheppard LRT has potentially already begun (again). According to this article, a staffer from Jim Flaherty hinted that the $333 million allocated for the Sheppard LRT might be shifted over to a subway extension.
Steve: Subsequent to this info coming out at Council, Ford reiterated that any money for the Scarborough Subway be net new money, not a transfer. It may have occurred to him that if he snatches funding from Sheppard’s LRT, aside from annoying supporters of that line, there would be less money available to redirect into a Sheppard subway project.
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@Build it and they will come
My suggestion to anyone who doesn’t have their facts straight would be to pose their concerns as a question, or at the very least, a statement qualified with uncertainty. This would do a lot to cover your ass in the future.
I would never attack anyone for being honest about their ignorance.
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Well, one thing can be said for Canadian Politics. Politicians at every level never forget how to pander!
Flaherty says “$333m is committed to ‘a transit project or projects’ in the City of Toronto” … like Denzil Minnan-Wong on this comment, I am SPEECHLESS.
“A game changer…” says Gloria Lindsay Luby? Not really. Typical CdnPoli BS.
Enjoy your four subway stops Scarborough, you could have had (8ish?) on the revised Scarborough LRT, to say nothing of high-speed service from Don Mills to(ward) the Zoo. Without Sir Stephen’s $333 the Sheppard LRT is in serious trouble.
Further to Flaherty’s press secretary: “… it is not the role of the federal government to decide on the infrastructure priorities of municipalities…” <~ I wish we understood that when we undertook the full TYSSE! *That* money could have gone somewhere useful.
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Personally I don’t have a problem with Scarborough getting a subway, it is pricy up front but will more than pay for itself in the long run. The problem for Scarborough will come when they build the Sheppard subway along Progress Ave. to connect with the Danforth line at McCowan, the growth that these lines will spur will create so much car traffic that the province will be forced to toll the 401. Subways in the suburbs are more anti-car than lrt’s, if they are trying to preserve a car culture they are going about it the wrong way.
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I’m starting to get the feeling that this is all going to end with nothing being built in Scarborough.
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The arguments for a SRT subway are as compelling as any other subway that was ever planned, or built in Toronto.
1. Scarborough is the poorest part of Toronto. Of all the people in Toronto, they are the least able to afford TTC alternatives like GO transit or cars. If you are Scarborough resident earning minimum wage at a downtown food court, then the TTC is your only option.
2. A subway line has the greatest potential to add economic wealth to Scarborough residents. It will provide greater opportunities to attract higher quality jobs and housing to the most disadvantaged area of the city. It may also reduce social problems and lower crime rates.
3. The same people that say that density does not exist in Scarborough to build a subway are the same people who say that a subway extension will lead to over-crowding on the Bloor Danforth line. How can both be true?
Steve: The problem here is that a new demand estimate has been cooked up showing a 50% increase in projected subway demand. This would come primarily from commuters enticed onto the fast ride into the core. Whether they should really be on GO is another matter, but I doubt this new estimate took that into account. Toronto has some history with planning subways based on ridership that should be on GO lines.
4. When comparing the cost of LRT vs Subway, it should be noted that a subway will increase ridership, which will increase TTC revenue in perpetuity. Therefore, increased TCC ridership will mitigate the increased capital costs of building a subway.
Steve: Actually, no. Running and maintaining the subway will cost substantially more than the LRT line, and this will more than outweigh any marginal gain in revenue. Capital debt won’t get one cent from operating “profits”.
5. The cost of running shuttle buses (up to 40?) on the SRT route during LRT construction will be $50 Million. The cost to keep the SRT running is $60 Million. This is basically a wash. The mental and physical discomfort to riders is not a wash.
Steve: Actually, according to Andy Byford at Council yesterday, it’s about $24m/year ($600k per peak bus) for the replacement buses which would run for 3 years or less according to Metrolinx. That’s $72m. Keeping the SRT working costs $12m/year, or $96m for the eight added years required by the subway option.
6. Thirty years of the SRT has not resulted in the envisioned Scarborough City Centre. Subways have proven to attract density and jobs (in due course).
Steve: Say what? There are many condos around STC and more to come, some on land now occupied by parking. As for jobs, they lie further east. The biggest problem at STC is that most people who work there travel by car, not by transit. Those who would come from most directions have only a bus service at their disposal, and even that is oriented to carrying people inward, not outward in the AM peak.
For example, Sheppard Ave at Leslie and Don Mills is being intensified to almost downtown levels. There will be 10,000 people living near Leslie and Bessarion Stations in new condos built on the former Canadian Tire warehouse site.
At Sheppard and Don Mills, new condos are being shoe-horned in-between 70’s style high-rises. Townhouse complexes, car dealerships and fast food restaurants are being demolished for new high-rises. Parking lots are disappearing along Sheppard, making the street more walk able.
Likewise, in Scarborough there is ample land available to demolish existing, industrial and retail complexes in order to build new offices, condos and street-level retail.
7. A subway can be paid with higher development charges and by a bigger tax base. Scarborough will be an attractive alternative to Richmond Hill and Mississauga to attract new office complexes.
Steve: Development charges have already been flagged in the City Manager’s report as providing a small contribution to the subway project. This arises from two factors: the fact that only the portion of the cost due to “growth” can be charged to DCs and the likelihood that insufficient housing or commercial space will be built to contribute more. The real estate industry is already apoplectic over proposed doubling of DCs to pay for a raft of other growth-related projects.
Final Comments
It really bothers me that we are replacing transit infrastructure after only 30 years. If the subway was built in Scarborough in the first place, we could be building the DRL now. Instead, we are fixing the “mistakes” of the past.
Why is it impossible for the 4th largest city in North America to build a 7 km subway extension? At the very least Toronto should have a east to west subway line running within its borders.
The Scarborough subway will provide a perfect backbone for LRT lines all over Toronto. Now that would be fantastic! I hope I live long enough to see it. 🙂
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Build it and they will come said:
With the exception of the kilometre stretch of Sheppard from Consumers to Pharmacy, the LRT will ot take up a single lane of car space. In fact, as Steve pointed out, the LRT on Sheppard will result in an INCREASE of car space as there will be no buses blocking the curb lane. Currently, many stops on Sheppard further east have no bus bay, while many stops at the west end of the line have so many bus routes that rush hour typically sees a back-up into the live curb lane.
Build it and they will come went on:
Are you in favour of disruption to car traffic, or against it as you claim in the first point?!? You must be one of those drivers who cannot wait 8 seconds for traffic to pass and just pull out, but then your hurry disappears and you drive way slower than the traffic you couldn’t wait to pass.
Subway construction disrupts traffic, far worse and for a longer time period, than median LRT construction. The proof is out there: have you had to go through the intersection of Keele and Finch in the past year? One lane of traffic in each direction has existed for the past year, and for a few months, less than that! All this is for bored tunnel construction and you have the gall to suggest cut and cover, which disrupts more of the road than just where a station is located.
Compare this with the BRT construction going on along Highway 7. BRT actually needs slightly more space than LRT, but the construction process is the same. For most of the construction, ALL of the three lanes in both direction were maintained for traffic. There were a few occasions where lane closures were needed for a short period of time, but for the most part all lanes continued to carry traffic.
The VIVA BRT project is in association with Metrolinx, so it is a somewhat safe bet that the LRT projects in Toronto will be managed the same way. The BRT project has also gone out if its way to maintain access to businesses and display signs to remind drivers that the businesses are open and accessible. That is something that the city of Toronto still struggles with on their projects (the current Kingston Road project comes to mind).
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Michael Greason wrote,
At least Rob Ford is consistent. The man goes out of his way to save the tax payer small change while at the same time has no problem with pissing away wads of hundreds and fifties as long as it supports his mantra. That’s why I added this cartoon on my blog back in December 2010. It still applies with some changes to the labeling of the cash flying out of his back pocket.
I am first and foremost a fiscal conservative (Google will reveal this), but it irks me to know end that Rob Ford is considered one. He is only when it suits himself.
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Unless I misunderstand your phrasing, that does not appear to be the case:
People really need to have a look at the full 400 page report.
Steve: That branch off of the Stoufville corridor is extremely unlikely to be built. I don’t want to get into a critique of the Transport Action paper here, but it has an unduly rosy view of how existing corridors might be repurposed.
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A love letter to Scarborough:
Sometimes, lines on a map (especially fully funded and in varying stages of construction compared with proposed and unfunded) are useful!
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Since the issue of population density and built form has come up, I thought I might pass along an interesting resource.
Someone from MIT has put together an interactive dot density map that shows one dot for every person recorded in the latest Canadian and American censuses, with data recorded at the census tract level. By zooming in as far as possible, you can see interesting variations from one area of a city to another (or from one city to another). Especially clear if you open up in more than one window and then toggle back and forth. Only problem is that it shows residents only, not employment.
Some examples (hoping that the links open correctly):
Here is south-central Scarborough, generally around where a Scarborough subway would stop at Lawrence and McCowan. You can clearly see a pattern of high population density along major corridors such as Eglinton east of Birchmount, but then density drops off substantially beyond these corridors.
Here is the area along the Danforth subway. This area is often raised as a case where there is insufficient density to support a subway. At the census tract level, you can see a much different pattern from the inner suburbs — very few areas of very high density (e.g., Main / Danforth, Crescent Town), but this is offset by widespread areas of medium to high density. It doesn’t look like high density on the ground because of the built form.
St. Clair appears to be an interesting combination of these two models. Yonge to Bathurst there are higher-density nodes surrounded by lower density to the north and south. West of Bathurst, density is more consistent and moderately high both along the corridor and beyond it.
Steve: Thanks very much for these links.
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All I’m going to say about the vote today is thank the maker Ford overplayed his hand by musing about raiding the federal funds for the Sheppard LRT project yesterday because it made council add some protection to the Eglinton, Finch, and Sheppard LRT projects in case (more likely probably) the feds don’t cover their share of the subway extension.
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Kevin’s comment:
This subject deserves a thread of its own on the topic of “How GO transit systematically discourages 416 residents from using its trains.”
Exhibit #1 is the interchange between Leslie subway station and Oriole GO station. The tracks cross each other right at the Leslie station, so we could have had a convenient and easy transfer all in one station.
But no. GO trains sail by Leslie without stopping until several hundred metres down the line. And even if a TTC passenger does feel inclined to walk the 400 metre transfer, good luck finding any wayfaring signage in the subway station to find out where to go.
This GO route has the potential to provide significant relief to the downtown Yonge subway line. A large number, perhaps the majority, of the subway passengers going through Leslie Station are going to or from the Yonge line and “enjoying” the sardine-can experience of the overcrowded, congested Yonge line. I am sure that they would love to have an easy, convenient transfer to a GO train that would take them non-stop to Union Station. But GO made sure that would not happen.
Exhibit #2 is all the stations on the Lakeshore line in the City of Toronto that have WORSE service during peak hours than during off-peak. With the all-day two-way service, they have 30 minute service during off-peak hours. But during peak hours they only get to wave at all the trains that are express and not stopping at their station.
For example, consider the Long Branch GO station in Etobicoke. There is no morning service into Toronto from 0812 to 0852, a 40 minute gap. While waiting those 40 minutes, a would-be passenger gets to wave at two trains that go by into Toronto without stopping.
We would get major gains simply by ending the hostility of GO towards Toronto passengers.
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Why doesn’t GO move Oriole station up to Sheppard and link with Leslie station? Seems like low hanging fruit.
Steve: Jurisdictional problems about the pathway between the two stations, plus, I suspect, GO trying to avoid a major source of pressure to institute a co-fare with TTC that they (GO) don’t want to pay for.
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I think the only upside to this plan is that a BD extension might improve the business case for the Relief Line, as you would be able to travel from north Scarborough to the core with only one transfer. Otherwise it will put more pressure on the Yonge-Bloor interchange. Who knows though – with the state of transit planning in TO I’m sure we’ll see more ideas approved and abandoned long before anything could be built.
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@Drew:
I continue to lack understanding of why this is regarded as such a critical metric.
People don’t want to live near a transit stop so much as they want to get downtown quickly (or at least in the downtown direction), whether it be their daily commute to work, their weekend entertainment, or to visit friends and family.
Assume for simplicity that the routes are the same, but the subway plan eliminates alternating stations.
There will be a small population that, instead of walking to the LRT, has to take a bus to the subway, like 95% of the rest of us. They might be losers in the change but on the other hand, they won’t need to change at Kennedy which will mitigate the delay.
Everybody else – every single other user of the line – will be advantaged. Some will be taking a slightly longer bus ride to the subway station, but this will be wiped out by the faster speed of the subway and not changing at Kennedy. The rest will get a faster trip, not simply because they don’t have to change at Kennedy, but because they won’t have to stop at so many stations.
I’ll bet a nickel that a proper calculation of the average time saved will show this average to be in excess of five minutes per passenger … twice every day. That takes a nice sized chunk out of the $X-billion p.a. cost of congestion in Toronto.
And after all … what is the line for, anyway?
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The Star describes Glen Murray as asking about repositioning the Bloor-Danforth subway at Kennedy Station.
Glen Murray says he did not talk about realigning the Bloor-Danforth subway line at Kennedy to run along the SRT alignment.
If the description in the article is correct, aside from this being an unnecessary complication it would require a new Kennedy Station (presumably on the north side of Eglinton) new tunnel under Eglinton, permission from Hydro (which hasn’t gone great for the Etobicoke RT or the proposed Mobility Hub at Kipling) … and the shutdown of Kennedy Station while the tunnel is being constructed.
Cheers, Moaz
Steve: Once again, Murray is freelancing on transit issues trying to redraw the map after the big debate rather than presenting such discussions and the provincial position on them beforehand.
The right-of-way in question crosses the SRT line south of Lawrence East Station and runs northeast crossing Lawrence at Brimley. Once it gets to McCowan it would have to turn north if it had any chance of hitting STC.
Hydro has already objected to the use of its corridors for another project, the North Yonge subway, where TTC proposed an underground yard. They are generally moving away from tolerating transit use of their lands.
From a cost point of view, this would slice some off of the total bill, and shorten the subway route a bit. The tradeoff would be much more complex work at Kennedy Station and a shutdown of the SRT for some period, possibly Kennedy Station itself.
The Gatineau corridor has not been considered at all recently as a possible alignment.
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To me, this indicates that elevated transit is not the eyesore some think it is and proximity to rapid transit is sought after. I am thinking Eglinton here.
Steve: It depends on where the elevated is. If a neighbourhood is built around the el, it can be integrated and its effect limited. In the middle of an established neighbourhood (think Eglinton west of Kennedy), the situation is quite different. It’s worth mentioning also that the support structure for the el will take some road space and interfere with turn lanes where centre columns are used, or will make the structure much more intrusive if the structure is supported from the sides of the road.
Depending on the utilities under the road, I expect that cut-and-cover would be quite a bit shallower construction than tunneling. As such, the stations which are always cut-and-cover would be quite a bit shallower too, and thus the construction could be shortened (duration wise, not length wise).
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