Today, Ontario announced that it would raise the Canadian content in 55 new Line from roughly 25 to 50 percent. The provincial capital subsidy for this purchase will rise from $758-million to almost $1-billion, and the increase will be matched by the federal government who are also funding this purchase. There is no change in the Toronto share.

It is not clear whether the federal contribution is net new money, or merely a reallocation within Toronto’s share of the ten-year transit funding program. A related question is which government(s) will be on the hook for the extra CanCon in future transit vehicles including those for the Scarborough and Richmond Hill extensions, and for added capacity to deal with expected growth. Collectively these account for a potential 57 more trains, doubling the size of the eventual order.

What the announcement did not address is a list of questions about the Toronto subway fleet overall:

• When will the cars be delivered, and how much work is needed to keep the old Line 2 trains operating in the interim?
• When will Metrolinx place the add-on orders to provide trains for the Line 2 Scarborough and Line 1 Richmond Hill extensions?
• How will delivery of the add-on trains affect opening dates for the extensions?
• Will complete replacement of Line 2 trains be delayed because new trains are needed to provide service on these extensions?
• Will the extensions have enough trains to provide full service to the new terminals, or will some trains have to short-turn in peak periods?
• How soon does the TTC project it will require more trains to improve capacity on Lines 1 and 2, and how will these be funded?
• What is the status of funding and timing for new maintenance facilities on Lines 1 and 2 to hold and service the additional trains?
• Will the Automatic Train Control (ATC) technology for Line 2 be the same as the existing system on Line 1, or will the two lines (and their fleets) be limited to use only their “own” trains?

The TTC produces a quarterly report on all its major capital projects with the intent of showing all planned work, but it does not produce a unified chart or timetable showing how everything fits together and where critical links might be in the overall plan. The TTC has a “Strategic Planning Committee”, and this is a complex piece of strategy that badly needs detailed, public review.

The Line 2 Fleet

Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth) operates with a fleet of 61 trains of which 46 are used in peak service. Allowing for 20% spares, the total need is for 55 trains, the size of the current order with Alstom.

TTC has more of the “T1” trains than it needs because some of that fleet was originally used on Lines 1 and 4, but were displaced with the conversion to ATC. Initial plans for the T1 replacements would have seen a 1-for-1 replacement that would provide for the Scarborough extension, but these were cut out of the contract to keep costs within available funding.

During the era with Rick Leary as TTC CEO and John Tory as Mayor, plans to launch a T1 replacement and convert signalling on Line 2 to ATC were put on hold. This allowed big capital budget items to be pushed off to the future, to be replaced with a less expensive overhaul program that would keep T1s running for another decade. That penny-wise decision created a potential crisis in subway service that has only been relieved short-term by the pandemic ridership drop and by the Scarborough extension’s delay to 2030 or later.

Seven new Scarborough trains will be bought by Metrolinx, but there will not be enough to provide full 2’20” service through to Sheppard. Half of the service will turn back at Kennedy.

With 7 new trains, the peak allocation would be 6 more than at present allowing for one spare In turn, a train every 2’20” implies the extension will have a round trip of 14 minutes (6 x 2’20”) which is woefully inadequate for the 7.8km distance. (By contrast, the Line 1 takes 12 minutes one way from Eglinton to Finch, a distance only slightly longer than the SSE.)

If there is a political demand for full service to Sheppard/McCowan Station, more trains will be needed.

The eventual size of the Line 2 fleet will also affect storage and maintenance facility needs on that line.

The Line 1 Fleet

Line 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina) operates with 65 trains at peak. Adding 20% spares brings the requirement to 78, although 2 of the 65 are “gap” trains that do not strictly have to operate if equipment is not available. There are no spare trains for Line 1 service improvement.

Metrolinx will buy eight new trains for the Richmond Hill extension which is comparable in length to Scarborough, but has more stops. The same calculation applies as on Line 2 showing that the new trains will only provide for 50% of subway service north of Finch in peak periods.

Evolving Fleet Plans

The TTC’s description of the subway fleet plan changed between the April 2025 and September 2025 versions in the target dates for specific groups of trains. Of particular concern is the 2035 date for the 55 replacement trains on Line 2. This implies that the existing T-1 fleet will have to be kept at least partly in operation for the next nine years, and that the trains for extensions will come earlier in the program. This will affect future maintenance budgets and train reliability on Line 2.

Item	April Version Target Date	September Version Target Date
25 Line 1 growth trains	“by 2032”	None
15 Metrolinx trains for Lines 1 and 2 expansion	“early 2030s”	“early 2030s”
17 future trains for Lines 1 and 2 growth	“post 2032 out to 2041”	None
Target headways for Lines 1 and 2 Capacity Enhancement Programs	“2041”	None
Completion year for 55 trains	“2035”	“2035”

The changes in dates are in part because Toronto’s population and ridership numbers are under review, and TTC management has already indicated that more capacity will be needed even sooner than expected, particularly on Line 1. By contrast, current subway ridership is not expected to return to prepandemic levels, when both lines were badly overcrowded, within the 2020s. Somewhere there is a disconnect in the projections that should be reconciled.

Servicing and Maintaining the Fleets

There is room at Wilson Yard for modest expansion, but putting more trains on the western leg of the Line 1 “U” creates problems for service management. If most trains originate on one side, and they leave the yard at the scheduled headway, it will take the better part of two hours to build up all of the service, and two hours to build down again.

TTC is contemplating a new yard on the north end of Line 1, but this project is not funded. Moreover, it is not clear whether the province recognizes this as an integral part of the Richmond Hill extension no matter where it might be located.

On Line 2, the pressure for a new yard was reduced by conversion of the “Relief Line” to the “Ontario Line” with its own yard in Thorncliffe Park rather than at Greenwood. However, major changes are needed at Greenwood, and the arrival of new and more cars will force the construction of a western yard on lands the City already owns near Kipling Station.

Both Greenwood and Davisville Yards face pressure for more space to store the TTC’s growing fleet of work equipment that is essential to system maintenance.

Neither of the two new yards is a funded project, and between them the cost is over $4-billion.

Automatic Train Control

Line 1 operates with Alstom’s “Urbalis 400″computer based train control system (CBTC). All TR trains, including the 4-car sets used on Line 4 Sheppard, are equipped with this system. Moreover, the work fleet is gradually being converted so that CBTC can detect these trains and allow them to operate mixed in with the automated passenger fleet.

The TTC has an RFP in progress for ATC gear on Line 2, and has expressly not ruled out having a different system on that line. This means that the new Line 2 cars would have to be built with matching equipment and would not be able to operate except under special, manual arrangements on Line 1, and Line 1 trains could not run on Line 2. Work cars face an added problem because many are “one of” specialized units and they need to be able to operate on both lines.

There is no doubt pressure to open up the Line 2 technology choice, just as there was for the Line 2 cars, but this would be a foolhardy move. Not that vendor lobbying and influence are unknown at the TTC. Toronto cannot afford to add technical complexity to what would otherwise be a unified fleet and control system for the subway.

A Time for Transparency

For many years, the TTC’s subway planning has been complicated by changing priorities at the City and Province, and by poor understanding of the way that many technical factors are linked in renovation and expansion plans. There is a lot more at stake than drawing a few lines on a map and holding a press conference.

Too many projects turn into single-item lobbying efforts that fix one problem, like new subway trains, but leave many others behind. The TTC Board and City Council, even though they will be distracted in this election year, should demand a full, public exploration of the choices Toronto’s subway system faces, the implications for project funding and potential constraints on the TTC’s ability to improve service in the coming decade.