Information on large transit projects and their status is scattered through several reports. Two of these appear on the TTC Board’s April 16, 2025 agenda, but for a broader picture we must look elsewhere. In part this is due to the split responsibility between TTC and the City’s Transit Expansion Office. Also, some details lie in the TTC Capital Budget, 10-year and 15-year plans.
On the April 16 agenda:
- Transit Network Expansion Update
- Financial and Major Projects Update for the Year Ended December 31, 2024
- Extreme Precipitation Planning
Previous City and TTC Reports:
- TTC 2025 Operating and Capital Budgets
- Advancing Waterfront East Light Rail Transit
- Advancing Eglinton East Light Rail Transit
- Sheppard Subway Extension Update
The TTC Capital Budget contains a high level listing of many projects much longer than in the “Major Projects Update”.
There is no surprise that the TTC faces a very large gap between its capital needs and available funding. The City is the primary funder for projects still on the TTC’s books, with smaller contributions from the provincial and federal governments. Expansion projects such as the Ontario Line were taken over completely by the province.
This greatly increases Ontario’s share of transit spending overall, but with the caveat that they build what suits their political climate, and Toronto is left to raise money, such as it can, for anything else. Another recent issue is that originally, Ontario’s projects were to be 100% capital with operating costs borne by the City. This has proved impractical, and Ontario now guarantees an operating subsidy for new Lines 5 and 6, albeit not in perpetuity.
As for the Federal government, it will (assuming the current government remains in power) fund a national transit program over ten years, but the money allocated to Toronto (and every other city) falls well short of their needs. Moreover, the funding is still done on a project basis with cities applying for each project rather than simply getting a block grant. This is different from the provincial and federal gas tax rebates to cities which can spend them as they see fit.
The TTC and City both produce reports tracking major transit projects, but these do not cover the full extent of the funding problem. Many issues with infrastructure condition, for example, are not mentioned in these reports although they are critical to the viability of transit service. In this article, I will review both the formally acknowledged “major projects” as well as the large dollar line items within the Capital Budget that get much less attention.
The TTC Major Projects
The TTC’s list is divided into four parts to segregate items for specific parts of the system.
- Easier Access
- Second Exits
- Fire Ventillation
- New Subway Trains
- New Signal Systems
- Capacity Enhancement
- Bloor-Yonge Project
- Station Transformation
- Purchase of Streetcars
- Hillcrest Facility
- Russell Carhouse
- SRT Busway Conversion
- Wheel-Trans Transformation
- Purchase of WT Buses
- Purchase of Hybrid and eBuses
- eBus Charging Systems
- Vehicle Location and Dispatch
- SAP Enterprise Management
- PRESTO
Comparing the year-end 2023 and 2024 financial information shows that some of these projects have increased considerably in value. These are examples of creep in project costs that can crowd out other needed work.
- New subway trains listed at $2.5 billion in 2023 have risen to $3.3 billion. In order to stay with the original funding request, the 55 trains for Line 2 were split off and 25 growth trains are now a separate line. The 55 trains show as 2/3 unfunded in 2024 because at year-end the federal and provincial contributions were not yet committed. The 25 growth trains still seek funding.
- The estimate for Line 2 ATC signalling rose from $812.6 to $881.1 million, and this is without any provision for the Scarborough extension.
- The total cost for bus purchases rose from $4.1 billion to $5.1 billion, most of which is for eBuses. This is an ongoing project that will replace about 180 buses annually, assuming funding can be found. This rate of purchases only allows for modest service growth.
- The cost of eBus charging systems rose from $793 million to $1.173 billion.
These “major projects” account for almost $25 billion in the capital plans, but they are not all.
The items below are listed in the major projects section of the Capital Budget and Plan, but are not tracked in the quarterly report, nor have they received the same attention when pols cry about the poverty of transit funding. Their total value is $3.4 billion. Although there was one major addition in the 2025 budget (a new control centre), over half of the change between the 2024 and 2025 budgets comes from increases in ongoing capital maintenance costs.
The TTC has not published detailed background information on its Capital Budget since 2019, and so there is no way to determine from available information how much of the change is due to scope creep versus basic cost growth.
| Project | Period | 2024-33 ($000) | 2025-34 ($000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major Control Centre | 2025-2027, 2030-2034 | 482,398 | |
| Bus Rebuild/Overhaul | Ongoing | 536,508 | 745,090 |
| TR (Line 1 & 4 Trains) SOGR | Ongoing | 233,545 | 390,359 |
| T1 (Line 2 Trains) SOGR | 2025-2032 | 222,555 | 217,508 |
| LRV Overhaul | 2025-2029 | 49,973 | 146,023 |
| Streetcar – Midlife Overhaul | 2025-2029 | 612 | 19,396 |
| Subway Track Rehabilitation | Ongoing | 276,655 | 298,195 |
| Streetcar Track Rehabilitation | Ongoing | 383,117 | 448,340 |
| Structure Rehabilitation | Ongoing | 205,064 | 207,302 |
| Roofing Rehabilitation | Ongoing | 99,096 | 124,226 |
| On-Grade Paving | Ongoing | 125,682 | 129,403 |
| Elevator Overhaul | Ongoing | 54,451 | 78,488 |
| Escalator Replacement | Ongoing | 44,166 | 49,597 |
| Station Finish Renewal | 2025-2028 | 40,243 | 28,813 |
| TR/T1 Rail Yard Accommodation | 2024-2030 | 114,642 | 99,528 |
| Total | 2,386,309 | 3,463,657 |
The numbers here are for the capital budget, and they do not reflect funding or staffing decisions for the day-to-day operating budget which includes a lot of routine inspection and repair.
The effect of deferred maintenance was clear for all to see in recent subway problems (slow orders) and the catastrophic end of the SRT, but this extends further. Another report on the April 16 agenda speaks of the effects of climate change and flags problems with maintenance of tunnels, drainage and other aspects of the system that collectively represent a large unfunded backlog.
The total value of these projects $1.4 billion, of which only $360 million is funded. Note that some of these items are contained within projects in the table above.
| Project | Funded 10-Year Total | Unfunded 10-Year Total | Unfunded Post-2034 | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roofing Rehabilitation Program | 124,226 | 211,448 | 113,678 | 449,352 |
| Storm & Sanitary Subway Pump Replacement Program | 66,803 | 315,000 | 67,092 | 448,895 |
| Replacement of Overhead Doors | 3,621 | 59,754 | 9,456 | 72,831 |
| Emergency Backup Power Systems | 1,600 | 1,600 | ||
| Building Facility Renewal Program | 12,874 | 4,943 | 7,182 | 24,999 |
| Subway Facility Renewal Program | 15,462 | 132,534 | 15,160 | 163,156 |
| Bus Garage/Shop Facility Renewal Program | 7,679 | 16,159 | 8,775 | 32,613 |
| On-Grade Paving Rehabilitation Program | 129,403 | 15,393 | 84,463 | 229,259 |
| Total | 360,068 | 756,831 | 305,806 | 1,422,705 |
The problem of funding TTC Capital Budgets was once seen primarily as affecting plans for system growth, but now threatens the ongoing maintenance and viability of the system. Far too much time and attention go to “my new subway” wherever that might be and not enough to the existing system.
Without question Toronto underspent on network growth for decades, but also lived on the initial capital value of new infrastructure. Much of the system is no longer “new” and that brings costs that cannot be avoided. Financial plans at all levels do not account for the huge backlog in unfunded costs, nor of the potential effects of system decay.
At the same time, the City has brave plans to substantially increase transit use in its Net Zero plan, even when the current operations suffers from service, capacity and reliability problems.
Steve Munro 
What’s going to happen with supply chain now that tarriffs have been imposed? Ontarians will pay tax dollars to fund TTC but all bids and tender jobs go to American companies.
How ridiculous is that? Jon
Steve: That will depend on the technology. Some things simply are not manufactured in Canada. More subtly, many components of systems and vehicles come from elsewhere, not necessarily the USA, and it’s not straightforward to say what the effect will be in each case.
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The politicians cheer on population growth, high density, and high house prices for investors…while being very behind on transit, infrastructure and roads.
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I wonder how much of station/platform rehab will be done in vain when the platform doors arrive…nothing like fixing the tiling on the station walls, and then realizing they aren’t needed anymore once you put doors up…likely have to redo all the wayfinding as well…
Steve: Considering how long we are likely to wait before seeing PSDs actually installed, those station walls should be fixed now. Also, that comment applies only to centre platform stations.
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It is extremely wasteful to be buying new streetcars given that there is already a surplus of streetcars. The TTC is having to run extra empty streetcars all night long every night simply because of lack of streetcar parking space and all of this is extremely wasteful. Spend this money on adding service to places such as Scarborough and Rexdale which are poorly served by transit.
Steve: The TTC also has more buses than it needs for the level of service it schedules. The problem is not vehicles, but the lack of operators to drive them. That is determined by the budget and the amount of operating subsidy the TTC gets. Rexdale and Scarborough could have more bus service today if only the City would cough up the subsidy run it.
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Is it just a coincidence that these boroughs are mainly working class using transit, but they are severely underserved?
Just take a look at the weekday rush hour, especially at Kennedy Station.
Those who have to use the Scarborough buses going eastbound generally end up waiting longer, end up in packed buses, and the atmosphere is generally dismal.
And compare that with the Lawrence station, where there are mainly million-dollar homes, cul-de-sacs designed to prevent the commoners from using them as alternative routes, and the Donway bus which serves Bridle Path being more “frequent” these days than the Eglinton East 34 bus which serves West Scarborough, and the 57 Midland bus which serves Northeast Scarborough.
And speaking of Scarborough, there are grandiose plans to build at least 100 luxury condos along the Eglinton East corridor, yet the 34 bus is sometimes more late and extremely crowded, and Scarborough locals are beginning to suspect that Line 5 will be delayed until every luxury condo tower is built.
Steve: The outer parts of Toronto suffer from poorer transit and lower incomes in part because the suburbs were built around cars and parts of them were not designed for “high end” living. Toronto has never done as good a job serving these areas as it did serving the “old city. What are now affluent areas were once working class too with frequent transit service linking to jobs along rail corridors and on the waterfront.
There is a problem across the system, not just at Kennedy Station, where service is not as frequent as it once was. The TTC cooks stats to make things look better than they really are as I have explained in past articles. There is also the problem that they report service quality including crowding based on averages, not on the variation from one trip to another. This, by the way, happens all over town, not just at Kennedy Station.
Your comment about the Donway bus is dead wrong. It is scheduled to run every 30 minutes during all periods when it runs. The other route east from Lawrence Station is 124 Sunnybrook to the hospital on Bayview, and its service varies depending on the time and day from 9′ peak to 25′ on weekend evenings.
57 Midland serves northwest, not northeast, Scarborough and has service roughly comparable to the 124. 34A Eglinton East (the branch to Kennedy Station) is every 10 minutes or better at all times.
As for “the Scarborough locals”, they have been lied to many times both by politicians and advocates. The project is late because of incompetent project and contract design, not to mention ongoing problems with the quality of work delivered by the builder. This has nothing to do with waiting for condos.
The errors in your comment make me wonder how well-informed you are, as opposed to just stirring up bogus arguments.
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Toronto isn’t much a city of culs-de-sac, although it does have areas with plenty of crescents that don’t take you anywhere except for a loop. But these are mostly found in NE Scarborough (Malvern etc) and NW Etobicoke (Mount Olive Silverstone etc).
Accusing Lawrence station of being in cul-de-sac land is just odd. Bedford Park to the NW of the station is a grid of long E-W streets all the way over to Bathurst and north to just about the 401. To the east, Lawrence Park has plenty of traffic calming. While there are dead ends, that’s mostly because the streets stop at the Don valley slopes.
I can’t really think of a TTC subway station that’s in “cul-de-sac” territory. Midland station might have been close….
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