The 2024 Annual Service Plan will be presented by TTC management at the November 22, 2023 meeting of the TTC Board. It is a 219 page long document, and I have boiled down the highlights here.

This report really should have been subdivided into digestible parts because it simply will not be absorbed by even the most dedicated transit nerd, let alone by the Board and Council responsible for setting policy. In particular, there is no discussion of the budgetary implications and option of proposals in this plan, and therefore no basis for discussion in the pre-budget consultations now underway.

This plan’s origins go back a few years, and its size is partly due to being a compendium of past years’ proposals. Two large groups are associated with the opening of Lines 5 Eglinton and 6 Finch which were expected to occur earlier than 2024. Another large group arises from area studies in various parts of the city. Still others come from the analysis of poorly-performing routes, a process that has been on hold during the covid years.

Despite implementation delays, consultation continued with a variety of online and in person sessions going back to 2022, some in support of the upcoming Five Year Plan for 2024-28 (which I will review in a separate article).

Through many sessions, TTC heard a message loud and clear about what riders and their own staff want to see:

The key priorities include:

• Service reliability – on-time service when expected and predictable travel times.
• Frequency – vehicles come more often and reduced crowding and wait times on routes.
• Safety – physical safety when travelling at night or during quiet periods.
• Communication – accurate and clear communications, especially during service disruptions.

2024 Annual Service Plan at p 5

Poor communications are repeatedly flagged in surveys and Service Plan consultations, but reorganization and improvement of TTC’s various information channels lies outside of the plan’s scope even though it is badly needed.

Both riders and operators flagged crowding as a problem. There is an issue with the reporting of ridership that masks crowding by looking only at rolled up weekly or annual statistics, and routes as a whole rather than trips.

TTC reports its ridership recovery relative to pre-pandemic times on a weekly basis, and for budgetary purposes, on an annualized basis. This brings two problems:

• Weekly numbers do not account for day-to-day variations. Midweek days are known to be busier than Mondays and Fridays due to work-from-home patterns, and weekends are already reported with stronger recovery. With two lighter days in the mix, the recovery will not be uniformly distributed, and crowding will be a greater problem on the busy midweek days.
• In a recovery scenario, ridership growth over a year will mean that the revenue versus historic data will be an average from the start to the end of the year. This will understate the situation “now” in the fourth quarter, let alone the needs going into a new budget year.

The Service Plan report includes more detail:

For September 2023, ridership averages approximately 78% and revenue averages approximately 77% of pre-pandemic levels. In comparison to budget, ridership was expected at 75% and revenue at 74% of pre-pandemic levels.

Similar to pre-COVID experience and in line with seasonality, weekly ridership increased in September. However, September ridership increased more than expected, averaging ~5% above budgeted levels for the Period, with ridership likely to remain at these levels for the balance of year. During Period 9, 2023, up to 97% of unique PRESTO riders used the system each week. While riders have returned to the system, the travel frequency of the riders has dropped. For example, the number of unique riders classified as “commuters” (i.e. ride four of five weekdays per week) are at 65% of March 2020 levels, whereas riders who use transit less frequently (ride less than four weekdays per week) are at 121% of March 2020 levels.

Day-of-week use is highest and consistent across Tuesday to Thursday, averaging approximately 76% of pre-COVID levels for Tuesday through Thursday during Period 9. Weekend recovery is at approximately 90% of pre-COVID levels, consistently stronger than weekday recovery.

2024 Service Plan at p 22

Emerging travel patterns from changes to work patterns – downtown office occupancy has averaged at approximately over 50% through the first half of 2023, representing between 2 and 3 days of in-office work per week. Peak day office occupancy has averaged at almost approximately 70%. This creates variability in travel demand by day-of-week and resulting challenges in scheduling the right capacity.

2024 Service Plan at p 23

Too many politicians, budget hawks especially, look at the average numbers without recognizing the difference between these and the current day-to-day requirements.

The preliminary projections for budget show a range of ridership and revenue figures through 2024. Note that this shows a modest ridership increase, year-over-year, of only 2%. That affects both the available fare revenue (from a budgetary point of view) and the mindset behind service improvements, if any.

The Service Plan echoes a familiar refrain from the Ford and Tory eras: service improvements will only come if they can be offset by savings elsewhere. Overall, planning is a zero-sum game and key changes such as rapid transit expansion can elbow aside other deserving services. Ridership growth brings more revenue, but not enough to offset the cost of more service. Unless Council allocates more money for subsidies, transit service remains mired in small-scale tweaks with little hope for network wide change.

Even worse, a decision to withhold funding at budget time echoes throughout the year. All the fine words about a return to service and the importance of transit ring hollow when the phrase “subject to budget availability” clouds every proposal. In 2023, the TTC had an unexpected budgetary nest egg with the unused headroom for Line 5 opening. That will not be repeated in 2024 and beyond

The report has an intriguing note about the Service Standards changes that came in with the 2023 Budget. This was a controversial action not just taken unilaterally by management before Board approval, but followed by stonewalling about what effects the new standards would have on service. It should not have required an FOI request to pry this information loose from management’s grip. Quite clearly, someone in this town did not want the effects of budgetary limitations to be known. “Transparency” was not a priority.

The 2024 Plan states:

In spring 2023, as the pandemic impacts on customer demand were expected to have stabilized, we realigned our transit services to pre-pandemic peak service standards with confidence that service levels will be appropriate for the customer demand. A temporary adjustment to the TTC Board-approved Service Standards was approved through the 2023 Budget. The realigned service plan protected periods of service and network coverage on all routes. As part of the ongoing service reliability program, schedules were adjusted to reflect actual operating conditions throughout the year.

This resulted in changes to 47 routes to match capacity to customer demand and to modify schedules to reflect current operating conditions and congestion. These changes represented a better calibration of scheduled service to today’s context. Demand-responsive service was also operated to protect for unforeseen changes to customer demand, travel patterns, and construction.

2024 Service Plan at p 14

What is not clear is when, or if, there is any plan to reverse this “temporary” change which saw off-peak standards revert to a level predating the ridership growth initiatives of Mayor Miller’s era. The 2024 plan talks about a review and update of the Service Standards as part of the Five Year Plan, but there has been no mention of this in the consultation sessions for that plan.

Meanwhile, the TTC acknowledges that it fails to achieve its current standards. Note that there are five daily periods from the AM peak through late evening, and a few hundred routes making a total of roughly 1,000 “periods” for comparison. A 92% figure may not sound bad, but much depends on the times and locations of that 8% (roughly 80 periods) that don’t make the grade. Beyond that 8% on average, a portion of trips on “acceptable” routes will be crowded thanks to uneven loads, gaps and bunching. This illustrates the danger of reporting averages rather than specifics.

It should also be noted that the “temporary” 2023 standards set off-peak crowding levels only slightly below peak levels as against earlier standards of a seated load, or seated plus 10%, that used to apply. This is a particular problem due to the extra space needed for baby carriages, shopping carts and mobility devices all of which tend to be seen more at off peak in anticipation of less crowding. The Service Standards make no provision for this type of demand and space usage.

The 2024 plan explicitly states that the standards adopted in early 2023 will continue to be applied.

Service adjustments will continue to be consistent with TTC Service Standards, which were applied to the system-wide realignment exercise to match service to ridership demand in the spring of 2023.

2024 Service Plan at p 27

This puts Mayor Chow’s desire to restore full service in question, and shows how TTC management continues to resist proposing a more aggressive service policy.

Review of Past Achievements

The Five Year Plan contains “pillars” and “actions” (yes, management speak at its finest) and reports on what has been achieved. Rather than dwelling these here, I will leave that to my article on the new Five Year plan that has revised and added to the current list. Let’s just say that there are many “actions” that are still in progress, not “implemented”.

Line 5 Network Changes

The revisions to the surface network for Line 5 have been through previous consultation rounds. Based on this, some proposals originally in the 2022 Plan in anticipation of a 2023 opening date have been modified. These proposals are not final, and are subject to “further assessment and review” before implementation.

• 18 Caledonia will use Sanderstead Avenue northbound from Eglinton due to problems with left turns east to north at Caledonia. This is a temporary arrangement.
• 73B Royal York to La Rose Avenue will be extended to Mount Dennis Station incorporating the previously proposed 170 Emmett bus. This service will operate during all periods except overnight.
• 90 Vaughan will be modified to operate via Vaughan to Dufferin without the dogleg on Jesmond Avenue. A proposed restoration of the 90B branch via Northcliffe Avenue has been dropped.
• Service on the north end of 91 Woodbine will be split off into a new 191 Underhill route operating to the Science Centre Station at Don Mills & Eglinton.
• 901 Airport-Eglinton Express is a new route from Mount Dennis Station to the Airport via Dixon Road. There will be stops along the route on Dixon and on Weston Road, but the details are not included in the plan.

Click on any map to open the gallery.

Click the map below to open a larger version.

Line 6 Network Changes

As with Line 5 Eglinton, the Line 6 Finch network changes have been in the mill for some time awaiting an opening date for the service. Based on feedback from consultations, some changes have been made to earlier plans. As with the Line 5 changes, they are subject to “further assessment and review” before implementation.

• The 36 Finch bus will remain as a service between Finch and Finch West Stations. Portions of the service west of Keele will be replaced.
• The west end of 36B to Humberwood will be taken over by:
  • The extended 37A Islington route from Humberwood Loop to Humber College Station.
  • The extended 996 Wilson Express from Humber College to Humberwood Loop.
  • The peak period 36D to Weston & Milvan and 36F to Weston & Milvan via Fenmar) will be replaced by 119B Torbarrie and 166 Toryork.
• 101 Downsview Park route will connect with 6 Finch at Finch West Station, and it will replace 128 Stanley Greene and part of 107 York University Heights. Service will operate weekdays from 6am to 10pm, and weekends from 9am to 10pm.
• 107 Alness-Chesswood will replace 107 York University Heights.
• 119A Torbarrie will be extended to Arrow Road Division to improve access to this site for TTC staff.
• A new 906 Airport-Humber College Express will operate to Humberwood Loop via Humber College Station. The western terminus will be Viscount Station, not the main terminals 1 and 3, to serve the employment area around the airport. Passengers can connect from that station to the terminals via the airport’s internal Link Train. The locations of stops enroute are not included in the Service Plan.
• 927D Kipling Station to Steeles via Royalcrest will be extended to Signal Hill to avoid safety problems with buses laying over on Royalcrest.
• 384 Sheppard West Night Bus will be extended via Weston and Steeles to Islington.

Click on the map to open a larger version.

Scarborough RT Replacement

Changes are proposed for two routes affected by the Scarborough RT replacement network.

• 902 Markham Road Express: The route will be changed near Sheppard Avenue to operate via Milner and Markham Road rather than via Progress and Sheppard.
• 985A Sheppard East Express:
  • The 985A branch from Don Mills Station to Kennedy Station will be rebranded as 904 Sheppard-Kennedy with a similar service level.
  • The 985B branch to Meadowvale will gain weekday midday service in addition to the existing peak service.
  • A new branch 985C will operate north from Sheppard via Neilson Road as a local service following the same route as 133 Neilson.

On 953 Steeles East Express, stops have been added both ways at Milliken GO Station.

Area Studies

These studies go back a few years, but their outcome was put on hold due to the pandemic.

Northeast Scarborough Area Study

Several routes in northeast Scarborough will be restructured to simplify the network where they overlap. Services on Sheppard will also be restructured to simplify the service design, and to distinguish the routes east and west of Don Mills from each other.

• 42 Cummer: Extended east and north via Tapscott to Steeles. Service on the Passmore/Dynamic loop replaced by 130C.
• 130 Middlefield: 130C Passmore branch extended east to Tapscott Road via Maybrook and Passmore.
• 134 Progress: 134B branch to McNicoll replaced by 130C extension.
• 85 Sheppard: Branch designations clarified for Rouge Hill, Meadowvale and Zoo services.
• 185 Sheppard Central: Existing service between Yonge-Sheppard and Don Mills stations rebranded.

East Scarborough Area Study

• 12 Kingston Road: The 12C Barkdene Hills loop would be replaced by an extended 69 Warden South bus. The 12D UTSC branch will gain weekday midday and early evening service.
• 54 Lawrence East: The 54B service to Orton Park will be extended to Morningside, and service on the Orton Park loop will be replaced by 154 Curran Hall.
• 154 Curran Hall: A new service will operate from Kennedy Station to UTSC by way of the existing 54B Orton Park route and Ellesmere Road. (A proposed alternate route via Eglinton and Scarborough Golf Club Road was rejected for safety reasons.)
• 954 Lawrence East Express: With the extension of the 54B service to Morningside improving local service, five express stops will be removed to speed up the express service.
• 178 Brimorton: This route was proposed earlier in the area study, but has been rejected based on low projected demand.

Liberty Village Area Study

The 63 Ossington will be extended via Liberty Avenue to Dufferin Loop. The original proposal to send the route to connect to the Exhibition Loop and GO Station was dropped due to neighbourhood input which valued service along Liberty more highly.

This change will remove service from the loop via Atlantic Avenue and King Street.

The area will be affected during planned road, water and track work on King as discussed later in this article.

North-Central – York Mills-Leslie Area Study

This area will see one route split and two route modifications.

• 51 Leslie and 151 Leslie North
  • 51 Leslie will broken into two overlapping routes. The southern one will operate from Donlands Station (post Line 5 implementation) to Leslie Station. At the south end, it will take over the route now operated by 56 Leaside. There will be a short turn 51B service at Lawrence looping via The Donway.
  • The northern 151 route will operate from Scarsdale Road to Steeles.
• 78 St. Andrew’s will be extended north to Bayview Station and Bayview Village shopping centre.
• 122 Graydon Hall will have a revised east end loop to provide better service to the Parkwood Village area.

South Scarborough – Beaches Area Study

The following routes have already been modified. The 2024 plan confirms the changes as permanent.

• 22 Coxwell: All service operates between Coxwell Station and Queen Street. Service on Kingston Road is now provided by all day 503 streetcars.
• 31 Greenwood: The loop via Queen, Hiltz and Dorothy has been discontinued, and all service runs via Eastern, Coxwell and Queen to Kingston Road.
• 70 O’Connor: The Warden Station branch has been replaced by 8 Broadview.
• 8 Broadview: Service extended to Warden Station.
  • The proposal to send 8 Broadview to Coxwell Station and to replace the O’Connor service with a new St. Clair East bus has been dropped.
• 503 Kingston Road: Service to Bingham Loop runs during all regular operating hours. Night service continues to be provided by the 322 Coxwell Night Bus.

The following changes modify service south of Line 2 and along Kingston Road in southwest Scarborough. Currently, there is one route 69 Warden South which operates in a loop via both Warden and Birchmount. This will be split with both services extended along Kingston Road. The routes will interline at Warden Station so that riders can ride through from one branch to the other as they do today.

• 69 Warden South: Extended east to Barkdene Hills replacing the 12C Kingston Road service.
• 117 Birchmount South: Extended west to Bingham Loop.

Southwest Etobicoke Area Study

The 80 Queensway will gain a new peak period branch 80B linking Sherway Gardens, Mimico GO and the Humber Bay Shores neighbourhood. This replaces the 176 Mimico GO shuttle. The regular 80A Queensway service to Keele Station will remain.

“Doing Disruptions Differently”

Recent years have seen complete chaos in the effect of long-running, complex construction projects affecting roads, tracks, utilities and pedestrian access to transit service. Some readers may recall the satiric “spaghetti” route maps for construction diversions.

Recognizing the need to improve how we plan, operate, and communicate changes to service during construction, the 2024 ASP includes a construction service framework that will be developed further in the coming years. This is alongside internal improvements to planning, operations, and accountability. We will continue to collaborate with City and external partners to improve the coordination process.

[…]

The draft construction and service disruptions framework, including feedback received through the consultation process, is included in Appendix 4.

2024 Service Plan at p 36

The draft framework, contrary to the text above, is nowhere to be found in Appendix 4.

The main report contains three examples of major projects that will require temporary restructuring of the network to allow for closed roadways and for congestion from construction projects. The challenge is for planned changes to actually occur when and how they are advertised to the public. There have been severe issues with last-minute changes, unexpected site conditions, poor contractor performance, and less-than-cooperative performance from other agencies who value their own priorities.

To these should be added the impression that any affected route is beyond proper attention and management, and that “construction” is a catch-all excuse for poor service. That is certainly the attitude evident in TTC customer relations responses through social media.

Based on 2022-2023 experience and rider feedback, the TTC developed the following construction planning guidelines.

• Keeping accessibility and minimizing barriers as a primary consideration when planning and communicating diversions and alternative services.
• Consistency in construction phasing and planned detours operated during the construction period.
• Flexibility to adjust service plans in the occasion that consistency is not feasible.
• Maximizing connections to subway to avoid unnecessary transfers for customers.
• Frequent service on nearby/parallel corridors to minimize travel time for customers.
• Maintaining service coverage where possible to ensure that pedestrian access and accessibility are maintained during diversions.

2024 Service Plan at p 37

The discussion of major diversion plans shows how routes would be modified, but is silent on other major issues including preservation of service quality, transit priority on roads especially where vehicles must turn, and, of course, on communication of service changes to riders.

Moreover, it is not clear whether this is an exhaustive list of planned projects, or merely a sampling.

Pape Station Construction

Ontario Line construction will have a major effect on Pape Station and surrounding roads requiring surface routes to divert to other stations. The configuration of these routes has not yet been settled, but the options under consideration are shown in the maps below.

Routes affected are not just those serving Pape Station, but at other locations that will have to absorb extra traffic. Recent experience at Pape with service diverted from Broadview shows what can happen.

Given the likely timing of work at Pape, the map should reflect the post-Line 5 opening route configuration.

King West Road, Utility and Track Construction

The City, TTC and Toronto Water plan major work on King Street West between Dufferin and Shaw in 2024. Two stages will be involved of which the second includes the closure of the King/Dufferin intersection for replacement of all track. The construction notice on the City’s website shows the planned staging of the work which will extend from February through October, assuming all goes well. Similar information is on the TTC’s King West Track Renewal page. Note that service will be completely removed from King between Shaw and Roncesvalles with no shuttle bus service.

The work at King and Dufferin is planned for June/July and this will be the period when the Phase 2 map (right below) is in effect. There is likely to be severe congestion with the diversion of transit service off of Dufferin, and transit priority will be required. Whether it is actually implemented, or done effectively, is quite another matter. Experience in 2023 on King Street suggests that it will be, at most, an afterthought.

Planned diversions can look good on a map, but actual operations can be hobbled by congestion, failure to enforce the most basic traffic management and restrictions, and short turns that create large gaps, or even complete absence of service where it is advertised.

Yonge and Steeles

Anticipated construction at Yonge and Steeles for the Richmond Hill subway extension will restrict intersection capacity. The TTC proposes to divert the 953 and 960 express services to avoid this location enroute to Finch Station, but to leave the local services in place. What this will do to service quality on the 53 and 60 Steeles buses, not to mention the already-infrequent 97 Yonge, remains to be seen.

It is not clear why the maximum amount of service is not diverted off of Yonge leaving a residual shuttle operation for local demand.

Increased Night Service on Streetcar Routes

As it did some years back when the CLRV and Flexity fleets were competing for storage space, the TTC will face a temporary shortage of storage for its expanding streetcar fleet. Two new cars, 4604 and 4605, have arrived in Toronto and 58 more are to follow by the end of 2025. Reconstruction of Russell Carhouse will take some of its capacity offline, and the project to convert part of Harvey Shops at Hillcrest to a small operating carhouse is still in the design phase.

In the meantime, the TTC contemplates expanding all night service to, in effect, store streetcars on the road providing improved service. Note also the rebranding of these routes from the 300 series to the “N” branch of the daytime route numbers. In the body of the report, they are still styled as 300s (p 43).

The net additions are on St. Clair, Bathurst and Kingston Road (replacing bus services), and on Dundas (new). Also proposed is an improvement to 20 minute headways on Queen, King, Carlton and Spadina. The west end of 306/506N Carlton would be shifted from Dundas West to High Park Loop, although this will probably encounter local objections. The 506 daytime service runs to Dundas West after 1am.

Service Performance Reviews

There are two aspects to the performance reviews. One looks at past changes to determine whether they actually worked to the benefit of the network, and the other looks at poorly-performing routes to determine whether they should be changed or eliminated.

There is a difference in the evaluation criteria applied to these two groups of routes.

• Post-implementation changes (as well as proposals for new services) are evaluated against the number of boardings per vehicle hour. This measure is clearly tied to usage, and is not affected by inflation.
• Existing routes are ranked by cost per passenger. This is affected by factors such as vehicle speed, trip length and, of course, inflation in operating costs. In earlier versions of the service standards, this was measured against a cutoff level of “N” fares’ worth of revenue, but that part of the formula can be affected by non-inflationary factors such as the political love for fare freezes.

The TTC should adopt a common metric, preferably the boardings per vehicle hour value, which is clearly understood and tied directly to rider counts and service operated.

Network Modification Reviews

Junction Area Study

Routes in the Junction (Dundas-Keele) were reviewed in 2017 in an attempt to rationalize service in an area with geographic constraints. Route changes were implemented in 2018 and 2019 including:

• 80 Queensway extended from Humber Loop to Keele Station via Parkside Drive
• 30 High Park replaced 30 Lambton on High Park Avenue
• 40 Junction-Dundas West consolidated the former 30 Lambton and 40 Junction routes between Dundas West and Kipling Stations.
• 71 Runnymede was modified to route all service via Industry and Rockcliffe, with the branch on St. Clair to Gunn’s Loop replaced by the new 189 Stockyards route.

Ridership trends for the revised routes are shown below, although the series do not come right up to fall 2023. All of them show the big drop in early 2020 and the subsequent recovery from the pandemic era, although this varies from route to route.

The boardings per hour, consolidated into weekday peak, off-peak, Saturdays and Sundays are listed for all routes in a table at the end of this section.

Even though it meets the standard on an averaged basis, the plan has caveats about 30 High Park North:

Based on the ridership data, some periods of operation do not consistently meet the TTC’s service standards for customer boards per service hour. In particular, the weekday AM peak period and late evening periods on all days are below standard as of the most recent ridership count, though observed ridership fluctuates by month. The service change was introduced five months before the COVID-19 pandemic – while ridership on the route dropped significantly in March 2020, the route has recovered at a similar rate to the system-wide average of 75%.

2024 Service Plan at p 173 of the PDF

The problem with selective evaluation is that it can cause a fragmented view of the route when a basic premise of TTC service design is that service runs all of the time, everywhere.

If the TTC wants the standard to apply to each period of operation individually with potential gaps in service, then it should set the Standards appropriately, not cherry pick situations where it suits them. This is a “Catch 22” situation because there are a few routes in industrial areas where some periods see high demand and others next to nothing. Running all day service can rack up hours with no demand thereby diluting the average.

TYSSE

The only route in this section is 107 York University Heights. This was originally 107 St. Regis and 117 Alness-Chesswood, and these routes were not very successful. In May and September 2021, the routes were consolidated and modified in an attempt to boost ridership. Weekday service meets the target, but weekend service does not except for Saturday afternoons. Some of the route changes cut service and drove away riding rather than boosting productivity.

The area will be affected by the opening of 6 Finch West, and this might improve performance. However, service changes, if done strictly for “efficiency” could again be counterproductive. The route will be revisited in the 2025 Service Plan.

Downtown Express Routes

The five Downtown Express routes operated with a double fare due to their high cost and poor utilization (one way trips), and were intended as subway relief back in the days when this was an issue. On that basis alone, never mind financially, they were an abject failure. The TTC shows their results in the table below, although there are a few caveats about the figures.

• The boardings per revenue hour for all routes are lower than the “bus average” value quoted at the bottom of the column. It is numerically impossible to have an average that is greater than all of the component data.
• The net cost per rider similarly is much lower for the “bus average” than for any individual route. This does not make sense. (Note that these values are net of the double fare charged to riders on these routes.)

Some of the cost/rider values are well above the level at which the TTC would cancel the service without a second thought. The challenge has been that most of these routes had political sponsors, many of whom were TTC Board members when the routes were created. Some of them were even budget hawks who would complain about unproductive service, but not in their own territories.

The TTC proposes to permanently drop these routes from the network, but there will be various semi-replacements (note that these explanations/justifications are paraphases of the TTC’s position, not my own):

• 191 Underhill (described earlier) will connect the north end of the 144 Don Valley Express to Don Mills & Eglinton at Science Centre Station.
• 150 Eastern Avenue (approved in the 2022 Plan but not yet implemented) will follow a similar route to the 143 Beach Express, but will run local on Eastern Avenue.
• 503 Kingston Road provides all-day service from the Upper Beach to downtown.
• The new 80B Queensway service (described earlier) serves a catchment area somewhat like 145 Humber Bay Express, but with a focus on the Mimico GO station which will be more attractive once regional fare integration kicks in.

Express Network

The Express bus network was heavily affected by the pandemic period with many services cancelled. Although TTC spoke of fairly small service reductions to the overall network, there were cases where the suspended express service had accounted for a sizeable portion of corridor capacity. This was not factored into the official story about percentage reductions in service.

In the 2021 Service Plan, four routes were recommended for additional service. Many of these were short-lived because of pandemic cutbacks, but all were restored in May 2022 except for off-peak service on 953 Steeles East. These changes are now having their post-implementation review.

Note that the analyses here are based on old 2021 and 2022 data, and further review will be required to update this information. It is not clear why the 2024 Service Plan does not include more recent information to inform its recommendations.

The evaluation matrix for express services is more extensive and includes maximum headways (time between buses), boardings/hour, net cost/rider, speed improvements and crowding levels relative to local service.

• 929 Dufferin weekend service: This meets most of the standards and will be retained.
• 941 Keele weekday midday service: This meets most of the standards but only marginally. It will continue operation with further study to improve operations.
• 943 Kennedy peak period service: This route remains suspended due to poor performance.
• 960 Steeles West off-peak and weekend service: This meets some but not all of the standards. It will continue to operate, but be monitored for possible changes. This is related to the planned 166 Toryork bus which would provide local service in the area west of Pioneer Village Station now served by 960 “express” buses running local. There is a possibility of running the 166 beyond its planned peak periods and removing stops now served by the 960 making it an express service in the common area. This option will be reviewed in a future service plan.
• 968 Warden peak period service: This route does not achieve all of the express standards, and it will be monitored for future changes.
• 905 Eglinton East Conlins Extension: Separate from the added periods of service on express routes discussed above is a review of the 905 Eglinton East extension to Conlins Road. The extension operates weekdays from the AM peak through to the early evening, and the route loops at its original UTSC terminus at other times. Ridership has been growing, and the extension meets the boardings/hour standards. It will formally be retained.

Seasonal Routes

Seasonal routes have been rebranded into the 200 range, although some of the analytical work in the plan predates this change and refers to the old route numbers.

• 201/175 Bluffer’s Park: This route’s weekend operations are part of the regular network, but weekday service implemented in 2023 will have a post-implementation review in the 2025 plan.
• 202/172 Cherry Beach: This route has been disrupted by construction in the Port Lands, and its intended route serving the Distillery District has not been possible due to the closure of Cherry Street (only recently reopened). The service will continue on a trial basis into 2024 to determine its performance as the road network changes. It will also be part of a wider review of service to the eastern waterfront pending construction of the Waterfront East LRT.
• 203/30B High Park: This route operates south from High Park Station into the park, but it performed poorly. It will not be included in the 2024 service.
• 174 Ontario Place: This shuttle replaced the western end of the former 121 Fort York-Esplanade route. It carried very few riders and was often disrupted by events within Exhibition Place. It has not operated since 2022, and the plan recommends that it not be reinstated unless a dedicated route can be provided.

Other Routes

• 12D Kingston Road: The peak period service to UTSC has performed well, and the plan recommends this be a permanent route. Weekday midday and early evening service be added with a performance review to follow.
• 39C Finch East to Victoria Park & Gordon Baker / 42C Cummer to Victoria Park: Both of these routes serve the Gordon Baker/McNicoll area. Neither of them alone meets the standards for boardings/hour, but this is thought to be due to competition between them. The plan recommends that the 39C be made permanent and the 42C be discontinued with buses reallocated to the through service.
• 43C Kennedy to Village Green: Although this branch meets the standards for boardings/hour most riders do not board on the unique segment of the route, and demand simply shifted from the primary 43A service onto the 43C buses serving the same corridor. Continued operation is not recommended, but this is also related to the use of resources in the Kennedy corridor generally including the 943 express service. Analysis and consolidated recommendations will come in a future service plan.
• 60C Steeles West: Service west of Pioneer Village Station to Kipling was added in November 2021, and it meets the boarding standard. Notwithstanding this success, removal of the service is planned as part of the Line 6 service changes when 166 Toryork will provide peak period service to Islington. Further analysis is required to determine the needs for service on Steeles West, by various overlapping local and express routes, and this will be part of the 2025 plan.
• 119 Torbarrie: Midday service was added to this route in May 2021, and it meets the boarding standards. It will be retained.
• 121 Esplanade-River: This route was adapted from 121 Fort-York Esplanade in October 2021 to improve performance. Although this did happen, the route still does not meet boarding targets. Whether this is due to the River Street extension or to the route overall is not examined in the plan. Development continues to occur along the eastern part of the route, and the plan recommends the addition of new stops (unspecified). The route will be reviewed in the 2025 plan.

Boardings Per Vehicle Hour

The table below shows the boardings/hour data reported for various routes in the analysis. Note that these are 2022 figures, and that they include an “equity bonus” for routes serving Neighbourhood Improvement Areas. The exact effect of this bonus is not shown in the Plan.

Poorly Performing Routes

On the basis of cost per passenger, the following routes lie in the bottom 10th percentile of the network. Note that the data in this table are based on 2022 operations and do not reflect the current level of demand. No changes in service are planned for 2024, but there would be a further review in the 2025 plan with recent ridership data.

One oddity here is that the bottom 10th percentile contains only 11 routes even though there are more than 110 routes in the network.

A common factor in these routes is that they run infrequently, and not necessarily reliably, two factors that do not encourage ridership growth.