Updated July 18, 2013 at 1:10 pm:
Ontario Minister of Transportation Glen Murray announced that Queen’s Park would fund 2/3 of the Scarborough Subway, an amount of $1.4-billion (2010$). This was described a cabinet decision taken in light of Toronto Council’s request for a subway to replace the Scarborough RT.
Murray put the political ball firmly back with Mayor Rob Ford and called on him to fight together with Queen’s Park so that Toronto could get the remaining 1/3 share of funding from Ottawa in line with federal contributions to projects in other cities.
With the press conference still in progress, TTC Chair Karen Stintz was demanding that the province pay $1.8-billion even though the lower amount has clearly been settled on by the government and isn’t likely to change. Yesterday, Rob Ford was widely quoted that if the full funding demanded by Toronto was not forthcoming, then the subway deal is dead.
We will see just how dead the subway is, whether Ottawa can be brought to the table with bags of cash, and just how serious Toronto Council was that their subway approval was “contingent” on better funding than they will receive from Ontario. This will all be back for debate, without question, at the October 8 Council meeting.
The original July 17 article follows the break.
Today, July 17, 2013, Toronto Council voted in favour of a subway line between Kennedy Station and Sheppard & McCowan to open in 2023 if all the stars align. There lies the problem — the motion included conditions that are unlikely to be accepted by various parties, and the decision is conditional on events that are unlikely to occur.
What really happened here? Many Toronto Councillors got to do their bit for Scarborough, to wave the flag, to show that Scarborough is really part of our city because it will finally have its own subway. At least that’s what the Councillors want people to think especially those voting in a coming by-election, or in the general municipal (and likely provincial) ballots in fall 2014.
A long series of motions was proposed, and those interested in the gory details can read them in the record of how the item was handled at Council. Here is a brief overview.
Mayor Ford moved the second of two options proposed in the City Manager’s report (Option B, subways), but proposed adding a recommendation related to the tax levies that would fund the subway. These are described in section B.(2)(d) of the report:
(d) Committing to a property tax increase over three years, dedicated to funding a Scarborough Subway, in an amount between 1.1% and 2.4% (depending upon the amount of funding received through Recommendations B(2)(a) and (c)), on the residential property class, and 1/3 of such a rate increase on the non-residential property classes (in accordance with current City policy), starting with a minimum tax rate increase in 2014 of 0.5% on the residential property class, together with the corresponding 1/3 rate increase on the non-residential property classes, with the balance of the residential and non-residential three year rate increase to be phased-in in the years 2015 and 2016.
Ford’s change added a new clause (3) which reads:
3. Notwithstanding Recommendation 2.d., City Council request the Deputy City Manager and Chief Financial Officer to investigate alternative sources of funding for consideration and report to the Budget Committee, such report to include options to reduce or eliminate the recommended tax increase in 2014 and further reduce the tax increase to .25% for the remaining phase in years.
Much later, during the voting, this amendment was defeated by a vote of 21-23 with the result that the original text, which does not include alternative funding and no/lower tax increases, remains.
In any event, the amount of new tax required will vary depending on how much money the provincial and/or federal governments bring to the table. From Queen’s Park, the City seeks the full $1.8-billion budget amount for the SRT/LRT conversion project including inflation, and moreover the City wants an amount equal to the estimated operating costs of the LRT line that would have been borne by Metrolinx.
Queen’s Park has already hinted that only about $1.4b is on the table net of costs that don’t disappear with the LRT project, and net of sunk costs on design, program management and property acquisition to date.. There is no talk of indexing this amount, nor of any payment for operating costs. Transportation Minister Glen Murray has done much sabre rattling, but has not sent the City a definitive statement of how much Queen’s Park will pay.
As for Ottawa, the debate saw an amount of $333-million move on and off of the table a few times yesterday, and I almost thought I was watching a game of Three-card Monte. One moment, this amount was a federal commitment specifically allocated to the Sheppard LRT project. The next, it was money the City could assign to any transit project it desired. It took a bit for reality — the fact that Sheppard is a Metrolinx project, and the money is tied up there by contract — to sink in. Finally, Council insisted that any federal contribution for the subway be “new money” (see Mihevc motion below).
Right now, the likelihood that either government will ante up is extremely low, especially with a drop-dead date of September 30, 2013.
Attempts to Amend Mayor Ford’s Motion
Councillor Joe Mihevc proposed changing Ford’s motion so that the approval is contingent on:
a. new federal funding equal to 50% of the net capital costs
b. provincial contribution of $1.8 billion (2010 $);
c. no other funding outlined in the Metrolinx and City of Toronto Master Agreement being re-allocated to the extension of the Bloor Danforth line from:
i. Sheppard LRT;
ii. Finch LRT;
iii. Eglinton LRT; andd. no reallocation of existing City revenues from other services to pay for the subway.
This amendment passed 40-4. Its effect is that the approval of the subway option fails if the senior governments do not come through with the requested shares of funding. The amendment also prevents raiding of other transit projects or budget lines to make up shortfalls.
Councillor Mary Fragedakis moved to restrict the City Manager’s ability to renegotiate the Master Agreement with Metrolinx so that only terms pertaining to the proposed subway conversion are on the table. This prevents terms related to other LRT projects from being adjusted as part of the process. This amendement passed 42-2.
Councillor Adam Vaughan moved that the City Manager be required to bring back to Council any changes in the Master Agreement for ratification. This was ruled to be redundant by the Speaker as the previous motion conferred direct responsibility on the City Manager. A dispute over this ensued, but Council voted to uphold the Speaker’s ruling. I believe that this was a procedural error, and if there had been a possibility of Vaughan’s motion being overridden by Fragedakis’ motion, then Vaughan’s motion should have been voted on first. At this point the issue is moot.
Councillor David Shiner moved that the Land Transfer Tax be investigated as a potential source of general transit expansion funding at $25m/year, and that the provincial and federal governments be asked to contribute an equal share to this fund. The motion lost on a 21-23 vote.
Councillor Paula Fletcher moved that the City request the provincial and federal governments to confirm their share of the funding by September 30, 2013. This motion passed on a 28-16 vote. Its effect, coupled with Mihevc’s motion, is to set a date by which both governments must respond favourably to the City’s request. If this does not occur, then the conditional nature of the approval fails, and we are back to an LRT line.
However, there are two related events. First come the provincial by-elections on August 1. If the Liberals do well in these, especially in Scarborough, then the need to meet Toronto’s demand drops off. Next comes the October 8 Council meeting, the next chance when this issue could surface yet again.
The next vote was on the new part 3 of Ford’s motion as discussed above. This failed leaving the originally proposed range of tax increases in the proposal. The remainder of Mayor Ford’s amendment was adopted 28-16, the same margin as the entire item (as amended).
In an amusing sideshow, Council also voted 27-17 on Councillor Michelle Berardinetti’s motion that:
City Council request the Chief Executive Officer, Toronto Transit Commission to arrange a third party audit of the sunk costs declared by Metrolinx, to ensure that such costs are accurate and valid.
The idea of a municipal agency marching into Metrolinx to perform an audit is laughable, and this probably won’t get far. The purpose is to validate (and with luck to reduce) the Metrolinx clawback of monies related to “sunk costs” on the LRT proposal.
TTC Chair Councillor Karen Stintz tried to jump start the subway process by moving:
1. City Council request the Chief Executive Officer, Toronto Transit Commission to:
a. immediately commence the work to obtain the Scarborough Subway Transit Project Environmental Assessment approvals;
b. establish a dedicated team similar to the Spadina Subway Extension to deliver the Scarborough Subway; and
c. consider the financial merit of transferring the Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) at the completion of the tunneling for the Spadina Subway Extension to the Scarborough Subway project (at fair market value credited to the Spadina Subway).
2. City Council increase the Toronto Transit Commission Capital Budget by $10 million for 2013-2014 to commence work on the Scarborough Subway immediately.
This motion was ruled out of order by the Speaker as the Capital Budget was not before Council, and an amendment to it could not be introduced in this manner. I would not be surprised to see Stintz bring something forward at the TTC Board meeting on July 24 to get at least a scope of work discussion going even without funding approval.
The salient point here is that Council’s approval is contingent on funding they do not yet have, and committing money to a detailed assessment is premature.
Conclusion
We now must wait to hear from Queen’s Park and Ottawa, preferably to the sound of sleigh bells, a merry ho-ho-ho and large sacks of cash dropped off at Nathan Phillips Square. Without this largesse, Council’s conditional approval fails.
How Metrolinx will respond given their August 2 deadline is unclear, but this uncertainty is a direct result of Minister Murray and Premier Wynne’s lack of a definitive position and dollar value for the provincial contribution. This should have been settled, in writing, well before the vote so that there was no ambiguity.
Subway advocates have little to cheer about here as their option depends on funding commitments in a very short time period.
Steve Munro 
Great summary, thanks.
Can you explain this one?
a. new federal funding equal to 50% of the net capital costs
Does that mean that the feds are requested to pay half the cost over $1.8B or half of total capital costs?
Steve: For the sake of argument, let’s assume the total subway cost is $3-billion including inflation. From this, deduct the provincial $1.8-billion plus inflation and you will get some number X. The City is asking Ottawa for half of X. The important distinction here is inflation because numbers are cited that either include or exclude it, and this confuses the discussion.
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Interesting little perspective about the whole thing. So much for respecting the taxpayer.
Steve: Yes, Chris Selley is really steamed, and rightly so, about this.
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It is hard to know who revealed the greatest ignorance in this debate. Mayor Ford’s inability to understand that the proposed LRT was grade separated and not in traffic was a pretty low point given the dollars under discussion. His assertion that a Scarborough LRT would be just like St. Clair is another. However, I think the grand prize goes to Karen Stintz for her speech about the importance of meeting the expectations of Scarborough. The idea that we all pitch in together to pay for the “expectations” of Scarborough is ridiculous in a representative democracy. The fact that those expectations – at least the ones for a subway – were influenced if not created by lies and manipulation by politicians is even worse.
Representative democracy, as I learned in grade 6, is a system where we select the best and the wisest to make decisions on our behalf. As full time representatives, they have time to study the facts, weigh the options and make the best decisions for all of us. It is not supposed to be an exercise where politicians manipulate public opinion and the vote in accordance with what they think the public now wants – no matter how irrational that choice may be.
Another thing that I have always wondered about is how populist politicians actually know how “the people” or “the taxpayer” think. Do they have telepathy? I don’t think so. In actuality, I think that they surround themselves with likeminded supporters and then embark on their mission.
In any case, Karen Stintz may have thought she needed to make this move in order to shore up a Scarborough vote in a potential Mayoralty bid. Based on her speech about expectations I think she has done herself enormous damage in the rest of the City. While I hope to vote for Olivia, I hope there is a credible candidate on the right (just in case Olivia doesn’t win.) I never thought I would hear myself say this, but Denzil Minnan Wong would not be a bad choice. He would at least provide a stable and thoughtful leadership – albeit with a bit of a different vision from mine about the directions we should take. (But then again in a representative democracy, I only get one vote.)
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Perhaps you have provide some comments Steve. Even if the financing lines-up, 10 years still seems like an incredibly short amount of time. I grew up in Scarborough and realise the industrial nature of that part of town. I can’t imagine the environmental assessments and the consequent courses of action will be easy.
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“Scarborough Gets a Subway” proclaims Ford Nation. This is hardly news! In fact the City of Scarborough is already served by subway — stations include Victoria Park, Warden and Kennedy.
This is similar to the service for the “hard working people of Etobicoke” with subway stations at Royal York, Islington and Kipling.
Steve: Ah, but Etobicoke doesn’t suffer from a well-cultivated inferiority complex. After all, they have a Mayor!
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If Wynne wants Scarborough Guildwood, she’d better come up with the provincial money before the by election. Otherwise the Tories will take the riding.
I’m disappointed Ford couldn’t grab the $333MM from the Sheppard LRT. It seemed almost possible there for a minute. But provincial pressure on Metrolinx can still make it happen.
These are indeed exciting times. It shows that the politicians are truly in control of transit, not the engineers/planners/technocrats. It’s a great day for democracy.
Steve: No, it’s a great day for demagoguery, cynicism, and the spinelessness of politicians who vote for a subway in the full expectation that they won’t have to pay for it.
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Mark Shore at the Globe Comments speaks for me today:
Yet another example of a bunch of incompetent pols making billion dollar, inter-generational transit errors. Viz., Bill Davis and the original lunatic SRT approvals…
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What a steaming, shimmering shower of bovine excrement. I will drop dead in surprise with a heart attack if Ottawa and Queen’s Park meekly roll over and write the requested cheques by the requested deadline.
The net result is that Rob Ford and all the BS spewing panderers get to say how much they are for “subways, subways, subways” while knowing full well 1) It is not going to happen, and 2) they have their fingers of blame all ready to point at Ottawa and Queen’s Park for “killing” a project that never existed in the first place.
And after it all falls apart, we are back to the sensible LRT for which we’ve already got a signed contract. (sigh, roll eyes)
The real question is this: “How much delay will these frivolous shenanigans add to the LRT project”?
Steve, any idea of how much delay?
Steve: Presuming that by the end of September, this is all settled by the non-appearance of funds, I don’t think it’s a big delay. Metrolinx is weeping about how this screws up their procurement process, but they themselves are responsible for at least a year’s delay through the alleged savings to be had with “alternative finance and procurement”. They want to issue one big contract, and so a delay to any part of it affects the whole. They should have seen this problem coming a mile away and structured their procurement accordingly.
I cannot wait for the fetish of PPP to finally die a well-deserved death, but that won’t happen while Harper and the Tories are in power.
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Doesn’t it sound unusual that the SRT replacement for an LRT has been on TTC books since 1992, and in the last 10 days is the first time TTC suggests a subway? Wasn’t the time for TTC to speak up was a decade or so ago?
Steve: Not just that, but a technology the TTC feared could not be kept running until fall 2015 can now be kept on life support to 2023. TTC management has made some rather obvious moves in support of Chair Stintz and her political ambitions.
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On one hand, extremely disappointing overall, with many Clowncillors etc. looking on the opportunistic self-serving side. On the other hand, some useful debate and clarity as in the opportunistic self-servers are more apparent, and as per the Chris Selley column, some hypocrisy etc. is denounced.
I found it particularly interesting when Mr. Shiner got on a spiel about setting up a Toronto Transit Reserve Expansion Fund, barely defeated in a 23-21 vote (#10). While the Waste Reserve Fund was raided to oblivion if memory served, it would still be an idea worth considering, and moreso, if instead of the Land Transfer Tax being nicked by $25M, (leaving $310M-ish in it for surpluses etc.), we instead started up a user fee on vehicles – almost like a Car Tax – since cars are subsidized in a Huge Way and hmm, how about thinning out the congestion by some user pay, especially if the large excessive mobile furnaces were charged more?
Somehow, nobody on Council thought of bringing in such a specialty tax it seems, tho it was encouraging to hear Ms. Wong Tam admit that she made a mistake in voting to kill off the Vehicle Registration Tax soon after the Ford regime began. Hint – maybe a tax like that would be a great way to get $kin in the game – and quite fair too!
Thanks for being there Steve, and for quick accurate and helpful summations.
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I don’t understand what councillor’s like Joe Mihevc get from voting for this subway plan. If anything, I can only see this hurting their re-election attempts.
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Does Councillor Mihevc’s motion require that the federal funding be open-ended? If the federal government insists on capping its funding based on current (preliminary) cost estimates, will the City Manager have the authority to renegotiate the Master Agreement?
Steve: Exactly what Mihevc’s motion wants from the Feds is not crystal clear beyond saying half of whatever the net cost to the City would be after the provincial contribution. That’s a moving target.
Ottawa, meanwhile, prefers to say we will give you up to X dollars and make that a hard limit, no matter how many years’ worth of inflation you burn through dithering about actually spending their money.
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Hey Steve,
I read in a Star article that Glen Murray has encouraged Metrolinx to consider another alignment up to STC. It attributes him suggesting that the entire Kennedy station could be reconfigured or moved so as to eliminate any sharp corners that might prevent it from travelling along the SRT alignment. Has this ever been proposed before to your knowledge?
This gives new meaning to the phrase ‘making it up as they go along.’
Tom
Steve: This has been proposed before. What happens is that the subway gets a new station on a northeast alignment (effectively eliminating the curve to the east at the west side of the crossover). This would put the station under the existing parking and the Eglinton overpass. The line would then turn straight north and follow the existing right-of-way to south of Ellesmere where it would dive into a new tunnel (with a larger cross-section and gentler curves) to reach the elevated west of Midland. From there it would use the existing structure.
This has big problems, the first of which is that it cannot be built without the same sort of shutdown the SRT would see for an LRT conversion, and would probably require that Kennedy Station itself go out of service for some period. Subway cars are wider than RT cars and would not fit within the dynamic envelope of the two side-by-side tracks, let alone on the elevated or through the stations.
This is a superb example of how just drawing a line on a map does not “make it so”.
Maybe in fall 2014 with a new Mayor, Council and Minister of Transportation, we can redraw The Big Move all over again. Murray should leave his crayon set at home.
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If we are indeed building a metro, it should coincide with the conversion of the signal system on the Bloor and Danforth line. Right now, there is a fixed block system in place. When the metro is extended, this system will be carried over to the new extension as there are no ATO trains. This also means that all the necessary wayside objects must be built.
In a few years time after opening, when the Bloor and Danforth line becomes capacity limited, ATO will have to be put in place. On a moving block ATO system, the wayside objects become redundant. Why put in signal lights when in a few years, they will become garbage. Second, the Bombardier T1 cannot be retofitted with ATO cheaply. So, the TTC will be required to order a whole new fleet of T35A08 or other Movia metros.
It is dishonest not mentioning these hidden cost. No one in Toronto wants metro extensions to resemble the F35 JSF project.
Steve: Actually, the plan is to put ATO on BD in roughly the timeframe of the Scarborough extension opening (early 2020s), and that part of the line would be built for ATO from the outset. Yes, doing this earlier than strictly necessary triggers an order for subway cars. While it is dishonest to omit these costs, some of this was mentioned in the City Manager’s report as a knock-on effect of building the extension.
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Queens Park introduced changes to the Condominium Act to have mandatory qualifications for condominium managers. Any chance that we can mandatory qualifications for mayors? Councillors would still be able to go to night or summer school to pick up credits to become qualified to be mayor. (Hee, hee!)
Steve: You would also need qualifications for MPPs, Ministers and Premiers.
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Wasn’t the $333 million from the feds stimulus money, and shouldn’t that have expired when the province kept delaying the Sheppard LRT?
Steve: Yes, it’s a federal commitment assigned to the Sheppard line. Even if it was “stimulus” money, there is a new pot of $70b, and so for Ottawa it may simply be a bookkeeping entry to assign the old “commitment” to the new funds.
At some point, they might pull the plug, but given that Ford wants that left in place for a potential Sheppard subway, they’re not about to embarrass him by reneging.
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If the subway is built, are we looking at another “gas plant” fiasco from cancellation fees for not building the Scarborough LRT?
Steve: Not on anywhere near the same scale because we have not yet signed the big construction contracts that would attract large break fees.
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I watched the full two days of this debate and it was a spectacle to behold, a comedy if it were not so serious. Fully half of council were out of their depth – it is after all a complex issue – and the Mayor clearly had never ever been anywhere near the SRT, let alone ridden it.
Today’s vote demonstrated a strong preference for a subway, and puts the LRT on hold while subway funding is sought. If the September funding deadline is not met then what? A willing change back to the LRT? Or, one way or another, new deadlines and further holds on the LRT. And if the LRT is re-started, this whole debate could repeat all over again.
There can be no doubt that the 3-4 year outage of the SRT/LRT for reconstruction was for council a major negative factor. Even at this stage it might be worth another look (even as the Subway proceeds) at how the technology can be changed in months instead of years.
The Subway and SRT/LRT have different routes and to a large extent different clientele. A subway would be close to some clients who were not in reach of the SRT, while many SRT riders would be ‘sunk’ (like the design costs). This not insignificant sunk catchment then could of itself demand other than bus service, and guess what, a plan emerges to revive the LRT plan.
This then is a hint to Metrolinx, that if the subway does proceed, they should find a very safe place for all those LRT plans since they may yet have life in them. And the SRT right of way should be protected, including a provision for it in the new Kennedy station plan. Think future!
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While they demolish and rebuild Kennedy station for that, Scarboroughites can take the bus shuttle to Warden station for the next 3 years and climb the steps in and out of those bus bays.
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I think that the outcome depends on the federal government. The federal Tories have a majority, and do not depend on Toronto that much. They might choose to grant the funds requested from them, or might reject the bid and they can afford to do so.
But if the federal government is on board, and the City is committed to a property tax increase, it would be very embarrassing for the provincial government to under-contribute and become the only party responsible for the death of a popular (like it or not) transit initiative.
Steve: However, once the by-elections are out of the way, the political calculus may change. Queen’s Park cannot afford to be seen as caving in to Toronto demands — this won’t play well in the rest of the province.
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Between now and when the deadlines are reached, there needs to be an active campaign to change opinion by Scarborough voters. One difficult aspect is, there are a different groups that need to hear the truth with issues specifically for them highlighted.
The people who now have easy access to the SRT need to be told over and over again that the subway over on McCowan won’t be so convenient for them, even if it gets them to Kennedy faster and without the need to change.
The people who feel that they have been saved from three or four years of bus replacement need to be aware that the SRT may have to get bus replacements anyways, and perhaps for a longer period, since the subway won’t be open until 2023 (or later). Or would they prefer an additional special tax assessment to keep it running, if that is technically possible?
The people of Malvern have to be told that subway means they will still be taking buses to McCowan and Sheppard come 2023, but LRT will shorten that tript to Markham and Sheppard as early as 2020. Heck, with the lower per-kilometre costs of LRT construction, an extension could get funding as early as 2018 and they could see the LRT opening service to Malvern Town Centre by 2023 – the year that their bus ride would be shortened from STC to McCowan and Sheppard under the subway option.
I’m sure there are other groups in Scarborough who would have their own benefits from the LRT option, but you get my point from these three. And yes, there will be some who would benefit more from the subway option, but it’s the overall numbers that count, at least in votes for the councillors.
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The article actually mentions Murray wanting to look at repositioning the subway at Kennedy, running up the SRT alignment, then following a hydro corridor (presumably the Gatineau which crosses the SRT south of Lawrence, crosses Lawrence at Brimley and crosses McCowan just north of Lawrence).
Aside from the huge problems with shutting down the subway while repositioning Kennedy and the chance that Hydro won’t cooperate (as they didn’t with the Etobicoke RT and haven’t so far on the Kipling gateway/mobility hub) … there is the small matter of residents of those areas not being happy with subway construction.
On the other hand it looks good on a map. Have to wonder why he denied it when asked on twitter.
Cheers, Moaz
Steve: Once again, I think Murray is going off script, and isn’t helping the discussion by inserting new options so late in the game after his long silence. Metrolinx and the TTC are probably tearing out what little hair they have left.
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Mark E. said: There can be no doubt that the 3-4 year outage of the SRT/LRT for reconstruction was for council a major negative factor. Even at this stage it might be worth another look (even as the Subway proceeds) at how the technology can be changed in months instead of years.
Now this may sound foolish but if the LRT does happen what if a temporary LRT route was constructed along part of the SRT alignment and the Gatineau Hydro Corridor?
The temporary LRT could use the SRT corridor from just north of Kennedy (avoiding the reconstruction at Kennedy) to the Hydro corridor (avoiding the reconstruction north of Ellesmere) then follow the hydro corridor to Lawrence and north on McCowan.
Getting back on the SRT corridor (once the LIM reaction rail and power rail was removed) would reduce the time spent on buses. Who knows, maybe Bombardier has a standard gauge LRT with a new-fangled power system they’d like to test.
I should feel bad criticising Murray for ‘on the fly’ planning then coming up with such ideas myself…but he has expert staff and access to professionals and I don’t…so it’s somewhat ok for me to come up with silly ideas.
Steve, was the Gatineau Hydro Corridor ever explored as part of SRT planning (either originally or for the replacement)?
Cheers, Moaz
Steve: No, I don’t think the hydro corridor has ever been explored because it doesn’t go anywhere near STC. It could have been part of a wider network decades ago before Scarborough was developed, but STC forces certain choices.
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I thought he rode the SRT when he went for that subway ride in the snow, or whatever that was a year or two ago?
Seeing that video of Josh Matlow getting exasperated with Rob Ford’s obtuseness really underscored just how useless Rob Ford is in a grown-up debate. Of course, it’s not really anything new, but just another reminder. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a clearer instance where what is needed is a fact check: the debate simply cannot go on productively without an admission from Ford that in fact the planned SRT replacement LRT simply would not occupy any road space nor would it contend with road traffic at any point. He is entitled to his own opinion but he is not entitled to his own facts. I’d love to see Stephen Colbert analyze this one in his inimitable style. I’m not sure he could provide enough context for his audience for it to work, however.
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So when the required funding likely doesn’t come through by Sept 30, does the city automatically revert to the LRT plan or do we have to endure another council debate?
Steve: I expect we will go through this all over again. There are too many political egos on the line. Whether they will carry the day, however, is another matter as some of the swing votes would provided conditional support might be hard pressed to stay onside.
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Now that the “Scarborough Subway” extension of Bloor-Danforth received Toronto council’s approval, it appears that the vote-seeking politicians have tuned in to what the citizenry want, whether well-informed or not. I’ve said it before, regardless of the outcome, one choice or the other results in improved transit to the central Scarborough area. Maybe not the ideal outcome, but an improvement never-the-less.
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that the funding for the B-D extension all falls into place.
Then the following will be true:
1. To build the B-D extension to Sheppard & McCowan will take at least 10 years, might take even more time, say 12 years, due to delays and dithering.
2. The Sheppard East LRT was not cancelled and it will be completed years before the subway extension opens.
3. The SRT will most likely remain operating for at least the time the subway extension has not opened. (The SRT was planned to be shut down after the 2015 Pan-Am Games for LRT construction.)
My question(s) are regarding the future of the SRT.
The SRT uses technology completely incompatible with other TTC (track, vehicles, power system, signalling, tunnel, platforms).
I found a 2006 TTC “SRT Strategic Plan Report” which concluded with a recommendation to spend $120 million to upgrade to larger vehicles (ICTS Mark II as used in Vancouver), plus $190m to upgrade the line, plus an additional $50m for forecast growth to 2031, for a grand total of $360m in 2006 dollars, and to consider extension of the SRT line to Sheppard via Progress (EA for extension was already approved). The report compared alternatives of converting to LRT and to subway, but found the SRT upgrading alternative to be most cost effective and with the least disruption (8 months).
Also, my understanding is that the TTC routinely uses a shuttle bus service to replace the SRT when the system is down, and that there even are a number of buses kept in reserve for this. Obviously, the shuttle bus route follows the street, and not the SRT track.
Steve and other bloggers, what are your opinions? Is it feasible to keep the SRT for 10 years, 25 years, and what is involved in these scenarios? Can it be run in conjunction to the subway? Or, just kill it and go to buses?
Steve: The 2006 report was biased against LRT by only comparing costs for replacing the existing line, not for extending it northeast to Malvern. The further you go with the Skytrain technology, the worse the cost comparison gets. Keeping the SRT running will be fun to watch especially considering how many times the TTC said it could not be done.
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This comedy is becoming ridiculous. Politicians get paid if they get elected amd re-elected, so they are logical when they pander to the changing whims of public opinion. Transit planning, however, requires an objective and complex analysis of many factors over a multi-year time frame. The infrastructure involves billions of dollars, and makes or breaks the structure of a city. A twenty year planning and funding cycle is managed by politicians who live on a 3 to 4 year election cycle. A recipe for failure.
So Metrolinx said “confirm your intentions by August 2nd”. The City says “scrap the Scarborough LRT ..(unless things do not work out)”. So if Metrolinx scraps the Scarborough LRT from its procurement plans and the City does not get the funding for the Bloor Danforth subway extension, Scarborough will get nothing. The City seems to think they can go back to Metrolinx to restore the Scarborough LRT if necessary, and Metrolinx said the City’s commitment was required now, not later.
My guess is that the entire SRT replacement will get dropped by Metrolinx, the BD subway will not get its federal/provincial funding to meet the City needs, and that the TTC and City will be back on the hook to handle the SRT death-rattle. Real funny!
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If you step back from the nightmares of sausage making, the subway extension makes good sense. Looking at the TTC’s own report on Jan 21:
For $2.3 B you get a concept that we know doesn’t work – a “LRT” like technology has operated in Scarborough for 30 years and it didn’t spawn development, it was slow and if you ever rode it you know the transfers were brutal. And capacity constrained, in an environment where STC is for better or worse grow in stature as a transit hub – including the new busway to Pickering. Add the long shutdown, not a theoretical problem if you actually live in Scarborough.
For $2.8B you get a concept that at least will serve the needs of commuters at STC and as a bonus the folks at Kennedy and Sheppard. In terms of time investment for transit users – the subway expansion will be a dream – one seat all the way to Yonge and Bloor.
The real shame is that the TTC and Metrolinx are not tasked with figuring out why building transit in Toronto is expensive against other regions.
Steve: Well, for starters, the TTC estimates for both options were high by $500-million, and corrected values appeared in the City Manager’s report at Council. The SRT is most definitely NOT LRT, but appropriated that nomenclature (“ALRT” for “Advanced LRT”) in a classic case of newspeak.
The speed was partly a problem of the technology (robustness) and partly how the line was operated and maintained. The same cars ran at higher speeds in Vancouver. The transfer connection at Kennedy is a bad design, and it is to be replaced for the new LRT line, if that is built. The LRT platform will be underneath the north side of the bus loop, and passengers will simply walk south into the existing fare mezzanine and down one level to the subway. An annoying (escalators and elevators often out of service), roundabout and wintry connection will be replaced with a direct weather-protected transfer similar to what exists today at St. George Station. (The Eglinton line will be underneath the LRT at the same level as the subway, and so a transfer to it from the SLRT would similarly involve only one level.)
There were two problems related to development along the SRT line. First, Scarborough Council didn’t want other nodes competing with STC itself for development. That’s why Kennedy & Eglinton is still a low-rise suburban mall rather than a cluster of high rises and shops around Kennedy Station. Lawrence East has some nearby development, but not much. Ellesmere and Midland are in industrial areas, and development there is constrained both by the rail corridor and by Highland Creek. The City has a nice big works yard at Ellesmere, but it’s still a works yard, not a development site. Over at McCowan there is lots of development nearby, but McCowan Station itself isn’t an integral gateway to those buildings which present themself as if the SRT does not exist.
These are planning problems related to how development was encouraged (or not) and the built form it did take along the line. For a subway example, just look at the Spadina line north of Eglinton. It’s not the technology that drove this pattern, it was the politics and choices of land use.
As for the future of the network, the LRT line is perfectly capable of handling the demand, but also can be expanded much more cheaply than the subway to cover a much wider part of Scarborough.
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@Michael Greason: On a slightly frivolous note, while watching the debate I was amused to see that Karen Stintz justified her reasoning on the basis of a single commuter. At least Rob Ford justified his arguments on the basis of “people tell me,” even though those people seem, by his accounts at the time, to number no more than the half dozen or so he met when he was in Scarborough.
Notwithstanding any more subway construction delay that will result from the past two days, perhaps it’s a good thing that the half-ring circus is now taking a two-month intermission on this topic.
I’m hoping against reality, of course, that council’s debate can’t get any more bizarre, any more jaw-droppingly self-serving, nor a better demonstration of willful ignorance and stupidity. Each time I hope that council will finally debate like adults, rather than children in a banana republic, I’m proven the stupid one. My sympathies go out to the rational members of council who have to suffer through these repeated wastes of time and our money.
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Foolishly wondering out loud…
How hard would it be to convert all or part of the existing SRT to BRT as a stop gap?
Steve: Tricky. The right-of-way is a bit tight for free wheeling vehicles, especially on the elevated section. The station platforms are at the wrong height. Loops would be needed at both ends, and buses won’t fit through the Ellesmere tunnel. A BRT would not be able to handle even the demand now carried by the SRT because the “single lane” stations won’t allow express trips to bypass locals.
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I am from the east end of Scarborough & had no problem with the LRT other than the transfer. Did anyone every explore the costs of replacing the current underground subway lines on the BD line to underground LRT? Would that not have solved the problem regarding transfers and provided Scarborough with more stations and access to transit?
Steve: If the LRT were underground, you would still have a transfer connection, but the line would be much more expensive. Extension to a wider variety of neighbourhoods would not be affordable if the whole thing were underground.
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Glenn Murray needs to be careful what he is agreeing to, his riding is the riding most negatively affected by increased use of the Bloor line … and the area has a large number of people who are knowledgeable about the system and use it as their primary transportation. I would imagine they won’t be too happy if they can’t get on the subway at Sheppard or Castle Frank … so he’s going to have to push the DRL into parallel construction with Scarborough or else he’s going to be out during the next election.
Steve: Er … Sheppard is no where near Murray’s riding. As for the folks at Castle Frank, they won’t see the problem for a decade by which time Murray will be somewhere else.
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If the whole reason for the sudden change is to save time transferring from one train to another, couldn’t we use that same logic to close the Sheppard subway line in favour of extending the LRT to Yonge? That would see more instant savings and keep ticket prices down than this new decision.
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My honest belief at this point is that Metrolinx will freeze the project in August pending city action, the September date will pass and the subway will be declared dead by some, to be followed with a partial revival at the October council meeting. End of the day nothing much will happen until loans are approved, but I think that council will end up just borrowing for this line and damn the consequences .
Actually I’m not all that upset by this; as a network the system works either way, and essentially everyone saves face through the combination of a Scarborough Subway and Sheppard LRT. In terms of the larger network the additional funds come out, at worst, to about the number needed to build Scarborough Malvern and Kingston Road, so the damage can at least theoretically be kept within Scarborough; probably not ideal, but at least we can honestly say, Scarborough wanted a subway, was shown the alternatives and went for it anyway without taking improvements out of other areas. Sure that puts the whole thing in an ugly factional light, but that’s the direction most of the Scarborough Subway advocates have been going anyway and at the end of the day we can live just fine without Kingston Road BRT or Scarborough Malvern LRT if Sheppard gets it’s Malvern and UTSC branches.
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If on grand opening day, the whole Bloor and Danforth Line runs on ATO, the extension would be built differently. If the assumption is ATO on day one, then wayside objects will not be installed. There will be no maintenance for those objects since it does not exist in the first place. Radio controlled trains do not need signals.
However, if the existing fixed block system is used on day one, the wayside objects would have to be installed. Even on an ATO conversion later, these wayside objects would either have to be thrown away (waste of initial capital) or retained (increase maintenance cost in the future). I am aware that many systems in the world retained their wayside objects after the ATO conversion. On a clean sheet design like this extension, there is no point wasting money if planning could be coordinated.
During the first public consultation on the fate of the Scarborough ICTS, it was mentioned that the metro option does not mean running every train to Scarborough Center station. If say 1/3 of the trains are short turned at Kennedy, an ATO system can show passengers the next 4 inbound trains and their destinations. Right now, the Next Train system does not distinguish between Out of Service, Short Term and Full Run trains. I foresee a lot of confusion at Yonge station with people running in and then out of a short turn train.
If extending the line triggers all these upgrades (ATO, T35A08 purchase, Greenwood Yard upgrades), the final price might be double of the quoted price. At this point, why don’t we do something else and divert the traffic elsewhere. There is already a GO station at Kennedy, when it gets electrified, it could divert a lot of the downtown flow. The problem becomes, why build a metro to feed a GO station?
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The most idiotic thing about this whole debate is that in 2007 Scarborough Community Council made a key decision in a vote in support of a system of LRT lines across Toronto INSTEAD of a subway using the same alignment as the current SRT. The studies had shown that the subway could not retain the Ellesmere station and probably not the Midland station because the subway would need to do a wider turn in that vicinity than SRT does. Now, 6 years later, many of the same councillors are voting for the subway instead, when it was them who made a key decision in favour of an LRT to Scarborough City Centre in 2007.
It is also crazy that the subway plan does not include a station at the Danforth Road, Eglinton Avenue and Brimley Road intersections as that is a key intersection with numerous commercial operations and numerous bus routes passing by. This intersection is about 1.3 km from the Kennedy Station which is a very reasonable distance between subway stations. The current plan will see a 3.3 km gap between Kennedy and Lawrence which is by far the longest gap between subway stations anywhere on the subway system (the longest existing gaps are about 2.1 km, on the Yonge line between Eglinton and Sheppard.
The stop on the subway near Scarborough Town Centre will be 500 metres from the mall, unless the tunnel is routing signficantly eastward toward the mall. I don’t know why this has not been discussed anywhere.
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I almost hope that this is the alignment that they go with if they go with the subway option. It would probably cost $500 million to 4! billion to redo Kennedy station. The subway would terminate at Warden for 3 – 4 years and there would be no SRT as it would get ripped out to build the subway. Perhaps then they would learn to be careful what they wish for because they might get it. NO, politicians never learn.
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If an ATO system was implemented along the BD line as part of the STC extension, wouldn’t that mean that the Sheppard line would have it implemented as well due the problems of maintaining a small fleet of T1’s only for Sheppard service?
Steve: Eventually, the T1s will retire, and Sheppard will operate with TRs. The operator can look out the window at the signals.
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If Jim “Angry Leprachaun” Flaherty finds the cash to help out his good friends Rob and Doug, I wonder what happens when we get to the 30% design phase and the price of the extension sky rockets. It will be interesting to see all the faux gob-smacked reactions in a few years and the finger pointing at TTC incompetence. “I would never have voted for this if I had known…….”
Please every single person, save Rob and Doug, knew the risks. I don’t know what makes me angrier, council voting for the extension or agreeing with Denzil Minnan-Wong. Dammit. There is a pig with a jet engine strapped to him, soaring gracefully above the clouds somewhere.
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Ok, I’ve already commented but I just noticed another way to count the stations, after looking at the map on the Star article.
The approved LRT plan adds some stations on Sheppard and a station on Markham Rd. (and I think moves McCowan station closer to Bellamy).
The subway plan (assuming Sheppard LRT survives) adds some stations on Sheppard and a station at McCowan & Lawrence, moves STC station to a less convenient location, and removes 4 RT stations.
So on net, the subway plan removes 4 stations compared to the LRT plan (and moves STC to a less convenient location). The only destination which gains rapid transit service with the subway plan, compared to the LRT plan, is McCowan & Lawrence.
But I’m preaching to the choir. Most people here care about facts and anybody who cares about facts and has been following the issue already knows this week has been a debacle.
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