Updated April 26, 2012 at 1:10pm: This article has been updated to reflect discussions at the Metrolinx Board meeting of April 25, the press scrum following that meeting, and correspondence between me and Metrolinx to clarify some issues.
Notes from the Board Meeting and Press Scrum:
Chair Rob Prichard asked about the status of unrecoverable losses due to the diversion of Metrolinx effort from the original Transit City plan to the Ford transit Memorandum of Understanding. Less that $10-million has been spent on preliminary engineering for the Eglinton tunnel east from Laird Station. Potential extra costs from Bombardier for the vehicle supply contract are not yet known. If these were simply inflationary increases, then the Metrolinx funding (which includes inflation) should cover this. However, Bombardier may also claim additional expenses related to the delay. Prichard urged staff to “negotiate” away as much of such claims as possible.
This issue came up again in the press scrum. Metrolinx has always said that “others” must bear any extra costs due to the Ford delay, but the identity of this party is unclear. Elizabeth Church from the Globe noted that Karen Stintz has pointed out that since the Ford MOU was never approved by City Council, the city can hardly be held responsible for the delay.
Both Rob Prichard and CEO Bruce McCuaig dodged around this and other questions related to Metrolinx’ role in pursuing the Ford plan in the absence of Council support, especially considering that Metrolinx hangs its return to LRT on Council’s clear vote for the original Transit City plan as the City’s definitive policy statement. The Star’s Royson James described Prichard as being good at “ragging the puck”, but never managed to pin him down to an answer.
Prichard hopes that the value of the “extra cost” will be reduced to zero making this a moot point, or at least one small enough to fit under any nearby rug without most people noticing the lump.
Director Lee Parsons asked about the possible funding from P3 Canada and what this might enable. Bruce McCuaig suggested that it might be possible to add to the scope of work with the additional money available through this federal program, but the dollar value is not large and Metrolinx must still pitch their projects to the P3C board.
Director Richard Koroscil asked what the differences were between the plan proposed here and the previously approved 5-in-10 scheme.
Jack Collins (Vice President, Rapid Transit Implementation) replied that these are mainly the slippage of Sheppard’s completion out to 2018 and the shift of the SRT completion back from 2020 to 2019. The design team and project manager for the Sheppard project were disbanded when work stopped just over a year ago and a new team must be assembled. Moreover, the project will now be delivered through Infrastructure Ontario (IO) as an Alternate Finance and Procurement (AFP) scheme, and this adds time for production of the contracts related to managing this process.
In the case of the SRT, the section of the route north of McCowan Station will be built while the existing SRT is still operating and this allows work to start sooner than planned on that line.
Director Rahul Bhardwaj asked about the requirement that the TTC implement the Presto smart card as a precondition of having these projects funded by Queen’s Park. Bruce McCuaig replied that a proposal from TTC staff for an agreement with Metrolinx and the rollout of Presto will be going to the TTC board at its meeting of May 1.
Director Joe Halstead asked about the roles of three agencies — Metrolinx, the TTC and IO — in these projects. Metrolinx will be the project owner. IO will be the procurement agency. The TTC will provide the design criteria, manage the design consultants and technical details of the projects, and will eventually operate the lines.
Halstead also asked about lessons learned from the St. Clair project. Collins replied that Metrolinx will maintain a presence in communities to keep them informed as the projects evolve, and noted that the neighbourhood office for the Sheppard LRT that had been closed because of the Ford MOU would have to be reopened.
Director Doug Turnbull asked where Metrolinx stands on the role of subways. Bruce McCuaig replied that Metrolinx supports subways such as the Spadina extension now under construction, and noted that “The Big Move 2.0” includes both the Richmond Hill extension of the Yonge line and the Downtown Relief Line. Metrolinx will continue to support subways in this context. Rob Prichard noted that Toronto Council had asked city planning staff for studies of a Sheppard West connection to Downsview and a Bloor West extension to Sherway.
Turnbull asked whether TBM 2.0 affects any of the four LRT lines up for approval. Bruce McCuaig replied that the 2.0 document will review progress to date and incorporate new initiatives such as the GO electrification.
During the press scrum, Metrolinx clarified that The Big Move 2.0 will be published at the end of 2012.
Director Stephen Smith asked for a clarification of the AFP bidding process and the meaning of the term “Financial Close” in the project chart. Jack Collins explained that the procurement would have several stages. First, bidders would be invited to qualify to bid on the work. Based on this, three would be chosen, and they would be given funding to prepare a more detailed proposal. From that work, IO would make its evaluation and select a winner. At that point, the overall contract and financing details would have to be nailed down, and this would be the “financial close”. IO will rely on Metrolinx, the TTC and technical consultants for evaluation of the proposals.
Smith asked whether pricing would be affected by the level of activity in the construction market. Collins replied that preliminary indications from the international market are good because work is drying up overseas. Also, experienced resources now committed to the Spadina extension will be freed up starting in late 2015.
The report was approved by the Board, and most of us adjourned to the press scrum which was attended by Rob Prichard, Bruce McCuaig, Jack Collins and the usual bevy of Metrolinx communications staff.
After the discussion about “extra costs” noted above, questions turned to the location of the Eglinton tunnel. It will definitely not go under the Don River because this would involve tunneling through bedrock. The tunnel boring machines are designed for softer conditions (soil, clay, etc), not for hard rock, and this work would be very expensive. The line will go under Don Mills Road and will provide for a future connection to a north-south route.
Questions returned to the role of Metrolinx and “the need for a clear and supportive partner” as they put it. Elizabeth Church asked about the Mayor’s opposition to the LRT scheme. Bruce McCuaig noted that Council had voted, and had delegated authority to the City Manager to execute contracts for these projects. Rob Prichard observed that the Mayor and his brother speak for themselves, and that there is a broad consensus for the LRT plan. Metrolinx won’t stand in the way of debate, but they have lots of room for working with the city.
John Lorinc asked whether Metrolinx is concerned about being “the meat in the sandwich” in the 2014 election? Prichard replied “no”. He observed that political actors have strong ideas, and we shouldn’t try to take politics out of transit. However, we should keep our eyes on the main goal of better transit and less congestion rather than just fixating on four projects. There will be a contract with the city for these four, and other projects may come. Metrolinx should be steady in its execution of the projects and although there will be elections along the way, the recommendation is that these projects should be completed.
A few questions on the vehicle contract came up.
Would other cities outside the Metrolinx planning area be able to procure LRVs through the Metrolinx contract? Jack Collins replied that this decision would be up to the local municipality (e.g. Kitchener-Waterloo or Ottawa).
Given the extended period between vehicle delivery and start of service on the first line (Sheppard), what will Metrolinx do about the warranty that could expire before the cars begin revenue operations? Bruce McCuaig replied that this would form part of the discussions with Bombardier and final approval of the terms would come from Queen’s Park. There will be two pilot cars built for Metrolinx but no dates are set yet for their delivery.
Royson James asked about Metrolinx’ role — are they simply following the political path of least resistance, or can we “take their recommendations to the bank”? Bruce McCuaig replied that Metrolinx would give its best advice regarding regional transportation systems, and that they are the keeper of the long term view.
James asked why Metrolinx keeps changing its mind. McCuaig replied that there are choices between technologies, and it’s not always a black and white decision.
Rob Prichard chimed in saying that there had also been changes in preference on the City’s side for Eglinton’s technology. The Ford MOU had tradeoffs — a longer Eglinton tunnel was a gain at the expense of losing the Finch LRT (and the eastern part of a Sheppard line). Metrolinx need to build projects that make sense, and they are “respecting democracy”.
Elizabeth Church noted that Metrolinx has changed its “expert opinion” especially on Eglinton, and this is frustrating to those who seek technical advice. Prichard replied that between 2006-08, the original vision for Eglinton was all underground, a faster line attracting more riders. However, the tradeoffs between costs and benefits led to a subway-surface arrangement.
This exchange led me to write for clarification because at no time did the City of Toronto endorse an all-underground Eglinton line, particularly not once Transit City was announced. Even before, Eglinton was flagged as a corridor for improved transit and surface priority treatment, but not for a subway. Prichard is mixing the Metrolinx planners’ fantasies of an all-underground Eglinton with official city and TTC policy decisions, and Metrolinx can hardly claim to be following the City’s changes in policy when in fact the drive for an Eglinton subway came from Metrolinx itself.
I wrote to Metrolinx:
At the media scrum, Rob Prichard talked about the to-and-fro of the city’s position on an Eglinton all-underground line.
It’s worth noting that several reports dating from 2005-6 including the City’s Official Plan and the TTC’s “Building a Transit City” showed Eglinton as a potential transit corridor, but talked much more of surface transit priority than of a subway.
Yes, there was an older proposal for a subway west from Mt. Dennis to Renforth, but the projected demand was quite low and it was not taken seriously.
Therefore to suggest that there was any serious support for an Eglinton line completely underground … is stretching the point.
Metrolinx replied:
As The Big Move was being developed between 2006 and 2008, a variety of transit lines and technologies were modeled and considered in developing the full integrated GTHA system of the future, including Eglinton as a fully-separated rapid transit corridor. The Big Move does not specify whether sections are below ground or above ground.
Also, as Metrolinx worked with the City of Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission, and a more detailed Benefits Case Analysis was undertaken, Eglinton was confirmed as grade-separated through the central section, and at surface, east of Laird Ave.
It should be noted that the benefits of a totally grade-separated Eglinton were weighed against all other rapid transit projects across the GTHA on a range of issues, including future land use, location of employment, integration with local transit, GHG reductions, the ability to serve communities of higher social need, and travel time.
You can judge for yourself whether there was a city position on the vertical alignment of Eglinton that would support Metrolinx’ claim.
John Lorinc got in a good last word with the question “Will you still support this plan in 2014?”
To assist readers in keeping track of the shifting completion dates for the projects, here is a consolidated chart of the original plans, the revised “5-in-10” plan, and the new 2012 version.
2012.04.25_Project Staging Chart
The original article from April 24 follows below. Note that some route-specific information has been updated on April 26.
At its meeting of April 25, 2012, the Metrolinx Board will consider a recommendation from staff that sets out how work will proceed with Toronto’s rapid transit projects in light of recent decisions by Toronto Council. Once this receives formal approval from Queen’s Park, we will be back more or less to the position just before the election of Mayor Rob Ford, but with projects needlessly delayed.
When Ford declared that Transit City was dead, Metrolinx couldn’t wait to negotiate a new transit plan even though Ford had no legal authority to replace an agreement by the previous Council without authorization from the new one. Now that Council spoke so forcefully in support of the LRT plans for Eglinton, Finch, Sheppard and Scarborough, Metrolinx is ever so eager to fall in line with Council’s wishes. With luck, the new plans may last long enough that we will actually build something.
A media briefing today (April 24) covered the main issues in the staff report and accompanying presentation.
Although the phrase “Transit City” has officially vanished from Toronto’s lexicon, Metrolinx conceded that, yes, we are more or less back to the Transit City plan with a few minor adjustments.
Eglinton LRT
This line will be built from an indeterminate point at or west of Black Creek to Kennedy Station and will open in 2020. The western terminus and the alignment of the segment from Black Creek to Jane (or wherever) has not yet been decided. This will be the subject of a report to the Metrolinx Board in June.
Although a line of this length cries out for a staged opening, this will not actually happen. This is bound up in the procurement strategy and probably some of the cash flow planning. The main tunnel project will be a conventional job of tendering for a specified job, letting the contractor build the tunnel, and then taking it over. However, the stations will be separate jobs to be parceled out possibly as AFP (Alternate Financing and Procurement) with more of the design and project management left to the winning bidder. Finally, major system contracts such as signalling will be let for the entire line fairly late in the project and, therefore, they won’t be available for a partial opening as far east as the Spadina or Yonge subway.
The line will open in late 2020.
Updated April 26: Metrolinx has confirmed that the original plan for through service from the SRT to the Eglinton line has been dropped. Here is their statement on the subject:
The previous plan for a totally grade-separated Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown was a seamless 25 km one-seat ride from Scarborough City Centre all the way to the Weston/Jane area. With the change back to an 8 km surface section east of Laird Station to Kennedy, TTC Service Planning are concerned that they will no longer be able to balance the headways between the heavier passenger loads on the Scarborough Rapid Transit with the non-grade separated portion and the lower loading on the Eglinton Crosstown.
The TTC operating preference is to revert back to the old plan by separating the two lines at Kennedy station. The SRT will remain automated, and the Eglinton Crosstown LRT will have an operator. There will be a non-revenue connection at Kennedy, but its purpose is more for shuttling trains between heavy and light maintenance facilities and the maintenance-of-way.
Scarborough RT
Construction will begin on the northern part of the LRT project (McCowan Station to Sheppard) in mid 2014 while the SRT is still in operation. Following the Pan Am Games in 2015, the SRT will close for reconstruction as an LRT line with reopening targeted for late 2019. I asked why this is a four-year window even though the shutdown is planned for only three. Metrolinx replied that the shutdown is only three years, but they are not certain exactly when it might occur. Also, they hope that through the AFP process they will encourage the bidders to find ways to shave time off of the process. However, it is too soon to make detailed projections and they are leaving room in the overall plan.
Conlins Road Maintenance Facility
The joint carhouse for the Sheppard and Scarborough lines will be at Conlins Road east of Morningside and Sheppard. Some site preparation work has already been done here, but actual construction was put on hold pending the resolution of Toronto’s preferred plans for Sheppard. This will be an AFP project with the builder responsible for maintenance of the building, at least for the initial decades of its existence. It is unclear how we will get a 100-year structure out of a company whose responsibility will run barely a third of this, presuming they don’t sell that part of the contract after the building is up and running.
Corrected April 26: Because the new Metrolinx LRVs will begin to arrive in 2013 2015, this project will be done in two stages so that preliminary facilities are available to receive and test the equipment before there is actually a line to run it on. An eastern section of the Sheppard line will probably be built before the main project so that there will be some test track outside of the limits of the yard for the early cars.
Sheppard LRT
Construction of the Sheppard line will not get underway until mid 2014, although the pre-award period for this AFP will begin in early 2013. Metrolinx acknowledges that there is a longer up-front period for the AFP process, but hopes that this will pay off in a faster project. The fact that the opening date for Sheppard has now stretched out to late 2018 suggests that these hopes may be misplaced, and shows just how badly our first surface LRT project has been sandbagged by Ford’s opposition and Metrolinx foot-dragging.
The report includes no mention of a possible extension to the University of Toronto Scarborough Campus.
Updated April 26: At the Metrolinx Board meeting, chair Rob Prichard (who has strong connections to UofT) encouraged staff to find a way to include the “Morningside Hook” taking the Sheppard line south to UofT Scarborough campus if project savings free up any more for extras. UofT should hope that Prichard stays at Metrolinx long enough to ensure that this actually happens.
The Toronto Star included an article about this line complete with a drawing showing an across-the-platform transfer between an LRT train and a subway train at Don Mills Station. This is different from the nose-to-nose connection commonly discussed where passengers would make the connection by walking east-west along a common platform. In response to my query about which design they actually planned to use, Metrolinx responded:
The slide is a rendering of a side-by-side transfer, as you indicated. The presentation from the TTC open house in 2010 … had an end-to-end transfer arrangement. We will need to re-start the design process with the design consultants and finalize the transfer arrangement.
In other words, they have not made up their minds yet.
Finch LRT
The Finch line’s construction will start in mid-2015, not quite a year before the Spadina subway extension opens. As on Sheppard, there is an extended advance period for bidder qualification and selection, and an four-year construction period.
Infrastructure Ontario and the Mysteries of Provincial Financial Reporting
Ontario policy dictates that all large projects funded from Queen’s Park be run through Infrastructure Ontario allegedly
“to maximize value and increase certainty of on-time, on-budget delivery and a cooperative design process”.
This doesn’t give the TTC or any of the existing project management handled by many private companies who have worked on transit in Toronto much credit. Whether IO (as the agency is known) will actually achieve its goals remains to be seen.
The financial side has a particular twist in that the actual, as spent budget for the lines is an unknown quantity. There is an overall budget of $8.4-billion, but these are 2010 dollars and already two years of inflation have pushed up the number. The actual dollars will continue to rise from now to 2020, but there is no projection of what the final number will be, or reference information someone outside of the government might use to track whether “on budget” performance is really achieved. (By contrast, TTC and city projects must show their spending projections including escalation factors out to completion, and authorized spending levels must be adjusted to deal with unexpected overages.)
In effect, simple inflation does not count as being “over budget” although it is well known that the cost of some items will rise faster than overall price indices.
One variant on this scheme is the vehicle contract. It is possible that Bombardier may claim costs beyond inflation due to the delay in starting production. If so, that’s a potential “cost of delay” which might be to the City’s account. However, one might point out that the decision to delay was not taken or authorized by City Council. This is an area where Metrolinx would do well not to encourage a debate about their complicity in whatever delay and associated cost the projects face.
Finally, Ontario hopes to obtain some funding from the Federal “3P” fund which is used to encourage AFP projects. At this point, the amount they hope to receive is under $100-million, not a big contribution to the $8.4b, but every bit helps.
Election Complications
With so much of the work planned to start in 2014 or beyond, the effect of the next municipal election cannot be ignored.
If we presume that the left-centre political groups can agree on one candidate, then there is a reasonable chance that Mayor Ford will be dispatched from the scene. However, if the opposition is split, and Ford manages to win re-election, we will be back to the question of his “mandate”, and strong opposition at both Council and Queen’s Park will be needed to counter his anti-LRT-streetcar bias.
In a few years, I hope that Toronto will not just be debating the fine points of these LRT projects, but of a wider menu through Metrolinx’ “Big Move 2.0” which has yet to make its appearance, and through financing options that will move us away from dependence on either the generosity of provincial budgets or the mystical powers of “private sector” investment in transit.
Steve Munro 
Interesting to see Sheppard will not start until 2014 which just happens to be after the next election as the perpetual foot dragging cycle repeats itself over and over again.
This is why nothing gets done. Metrolinx left itself an escape clause by not starting it today as it becomes a monster of an election issue.
Steve: The next municipal election is in the fall of 2014. I am sure we will hear lots pro and anti LRT from various sides during the campaign.
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I’m still stunned that Eglinton isn’t going to be partially open during the construction of it … I’d be interested to see the decision making process that came to the conclusion that not phasing work so that the center section (which will probably be almost profitable right off the bat) was the best way to go … how much money will be spent maintaining an empty tunnel and stations for 4+ years, as well as running buses.
If I was guessing it sounds like they want to leave the station building as long as possible … just in case they decide to change technologies.
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Three questions out of curiosity
1) Etobicoke-Finch West LRT <— original name, why did they drop the Etobicoke part.
Steve: I could be really snotty and suggest it has something to do with a certain family based in that part of town.
2) Both in the original Transit City and under Ford's plan, the Eglinton Crosstown and S/LRT would merge. Now it looks two separate lines, why?
Steve: No, it is still designed for through routing of some service from the SRT to Eglinton. However, from a construction point of view, they are separate projects and the SRT conversion will finish before the Eglinton line opens to Kennedy.
3) I have heard this since Adrian Heaps was around…Kennedy Station rebuilt. Giambrone as well mentioned it, some ttc staff, etc… but I have not seen a single official document on it. Kennedy is a mess. I am asking this question because as we all know words are cheap (Think DRL, how many years have politicians said they want to build it and still nothing to this day).
Steve: There is a much-revised design in the EA documents for the Eglinton line with a much simplified connection between the “RT” and the subway. This is not news.
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Given Metrolinx’s gaffes and misrepresentations (intentional or not) during the underground-versus-surface debate, are you at all suspicious of their recommended construction scheduling, which just so happens to start on the election year?
I’m trying not to make any unfounded accusations, but it’s hard not to think otherwise.
Steve: I am moderately suspicious, but there are bigger problems to worry about for a provincial election that could come much sooner than the next municipal one. Also, there is the problem of new funding sources. As long as we are dependent on money from general revenue, we are limited by how broke Queen’s Park feels each year. With a dedicated revenue stream, this is much less of a problem.
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It’ll be interesting seeing the vehicles in storage for 5 years before they’re actually used.
Does that sound stupid or what?
Steve: I suspect that part of this has to do with Bombardier’s production scheduling. Originally, the opening dates were more spread out, and the number of cars per year Bombardier needed to build was not very “spiky”. If Metrolinx warehouses cars, it lets Bombardier build them earlier. However, this will play havoc with the warranties that will expire before the cars have seen revenue service.
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The fact that nothing is going to get started until the next municipal election is pathetic! Already Doug Ford is saying he will fight the LRT right through to and including the next election and while Rob Ford was looking like a lame duck who might not even last this term his ratings have now gone up considerably. Why this is I don’t know unless perhaps it is the effect of his and Dougie’s radio show (the Fords may be useless at understanding cities but they have a good track record at winning elections).
They have got to be stopped! The easiest way would be if one of the court cases were to result in the mayor being forced from office with a prohibition on his running for elected office for a period of time but we can’t depend on that. He may well have to be beaten at his own game. Regrettably, this means that the next election campaign is already on. A good mayoral cansdidate should be chosen soon and we must all get behind that ONE candidate.
We have also to start selling the LRTs as a positive good and not merely as a consolation prize because we can’t afford subways. The pro LRT councillors sure wouldn’t make good car salesmen. Not with that approach. It was a disaster!
Let’s not be naive! We aren’t out of the woods on this yet!
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Hmm, I also wonder if they plan on testing the downstream left-turn concept any time soon. And I wonder how on earth such an experiment would be set up and handled.
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Here, Royson James mentions a TTC study estimating a cost of $800 million to convert the Sheppard subway to LRT. Have you seen this study? It’s a huge missed opportunity if this conversion is not done while the LRT is being constructed.
Steve: James does not describe it as a “study”, only an “estimate”. I have not seen this “study”, and don’t know whether it is a detailed review, or a back-of-the-envelope estimate provided as part of a discussion somewhere. $1b is a lot of money, and there are other more useful things we might spend it on.
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Its nice to see some progress – but I am wary of the delayed construction start (no thanks to the Ford brothers’ shenanigans). The Pro-LRT crowd will have to be very active till 2020 to make sure this doesn’t get derailed.
I am also wondering if it would make sense to renegotiate with Bombardier. Not only delay delivery but provide technological upgrades. The current designs would probably be obsolete by the time 2020 rolls around.
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The map shown in the presentation has a blue line (Elginton LRT/SRT) running onto the east end of the Sheppard LRT… does this imply some through-running?
Steve: No. That is for carhouse access.
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When I heard the announcement this morning on the news, with construction beginning of the Sheppard line beginning in 2014 it was hard not to think of yet more holes being dug only to be filled. And to think if Ford had not successfully scared the Premier and Metrolinx in to “cancelling” Transit City, the Sheppard line might have been operational in 2014! Mayor Ford made it clear that this would be an election issue. Two years is a long time politically, and there is a real possibility Ford could get re-elected if his support in areas of the City such as Scarborough remain strong. i can only sanity (if such a thing still exists) prevails and all these project go ahead more less as planned and are delivered more or less around the promised date. One thing I heard for success in retail is “to underpromise and overdeliver” – so far when it comes to transit we’ve been getting the exact opposite.
With respect to the Eglinton Crosstown and SRT, during the open house on April 4th my councillor hosted, I had spoken with Rod McPhail and he had mentioned that the two would be operated as separate lines, with 2-car trains on Eglinton and 3-car trains on the SRT route as the latter had higher ridership.
Phil
Steve: It is Council that has the final say in Toronto’s transit priorities. Even if Ford does manage re-election (which I think would only happen if the left were stupid enough to run more than one candidate), this does not guarantee him a majority on Council. That’s where his plans and strategies ran aground already. Ford will have to not only win re-election, but also ensure the defeat of a number of pro-LRT Councillors who have another two years to entrench their hold on their wards.
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I just wanted to pitch my two cents over a comment made by Daniel Sulph in a previous thread. He had suggested that the Sheppard LRT could be converted to Subway operation if demand persists. I’m not sure if that approach would be valid and moreso, I worry about the costs of converting from LRT to subway operation considering that new tunnels would need to be built. My thoughts are that it would waste more money than if the subway was built today.
Again, I’m not against LRT, but I do believe that Sheppard should not be built until the future of the Sheppard line is addressed. Are we perfectly happy with relegating the Sheppard line to permanent stubway status? If the city as a whole is happy with that white elephant in the room, then by all means, go right ahead. All in all, the Sheppard Subway is a crappy excuse for a subway.
Steve: The future of Sheppard has been addressed. Council chose to build an LRT to Morningside, not a subway to STC. One white elephant is no excuse for another — we are not stocking a transit zoo.
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Also to add to my comment about converting a Sheppard LRT to a subway: the idea was also tossed about with a subway replacement for the Scarborough RT. I wonder what happened to that idea…. hmmmm….
My point: modal conversions will never happen when you choose one form of public transit over another, especially when you consider costs of that conversion versus alternates that could use the infrastructure.
Steve: And the SRT makes more sense as part of an LRT network. I really do get tired of people talking about “converting” the Sheppard LRT to subway considering that (a) the original subway proposal a la Rob Ford goes to STC, not along Sheppard to Morningside, and (b) the demand on the outer part of Sheppard is nowhere near what is needed to justify the expense of a subway. Anyone living east of STC who expects to ever see a subway is living in a fantasy world.
As for a BD extension, this is an expensive alternative and one that will never see rapid transit extend beyond STC.
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I think the challenge in the near term will be to re-frame the dialogue on transit away from Sheppard and focus on two issues:
1) how to improve financing/revenue (as Steve said) and
2) building the subway that we actually urgently need – an eastern relief line for Yonge.
I am so tired of the debate about subways on Sheppard. Andrew Eckford wrote a funny post about how to kill that hydra dead a little while ago which hits the nail on the head.
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JeffreyM:
Familiar to those of us who pass the as-yet uncommissioned crossovers on the Yonge line. Ah well.
Steve, given that Conlins-McCowan will begin construction before the SRT shutdown, is there any value/possibility to a early opening Morningside-STC shuttle involving a quick rebuild of McCowan and STC platforms and a turnback facility immediately west. It seems to me that some effort should be made to “intercept” riders heading to STC to commute or connect with services like the GO 407 with the intercepted buses then heading south towards the BD line/GO stations. With these buses no longer stopping in STC the bays could then be used by routes operating in the SRT catchment. At least then the LRVs and an initial cohort of drivers would be getting track time and initial user experience bugs not caught by the manufacturer (such as the door issue found on the TRs) worked out.
Steve: You’re not going to see a shuttle operation because as long as the SRT stays operating, the section to McCowan yard must remain open. I presume you are talking about the post-2015 period and starting the reconstruction of the existing line from McCowan westward. That would certainly be an interesting idea, but I can hear Metrolinx griping now about having to split the project into two pieces. This will be especially important for systems like signalling and power supply that must be completely replaced on the RT, and may not be desirable as a two-stage project.
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I have to wonder why it is going to take so bloody long to get Eglinton finished (opening goal date: 2020) – it is only 2012 now – why EIGHT years? The French are able to build new tram sytems from scratch in half the time. And, to boot, construction on Eglinton has already started. The contractors must be working at a snail’s pace. Why is Metrolinx waiting until 2014 and 2015 to START construction on Finch and Sheppard, respectively – wasting an entire year and a half sitting around doing nothing?
With the eight billion dollars already available, why isn’t MetroLinx doing all it can to get shovels into the ground ASAP?
What gives here? I would very much like to know. This kind of dilly-dallying around is just going to feed into a frenzy to get Ford supporters onto City Council in 2014 and pull a reversal of last month’s votes – thereby once again bringing transit progress to a complete standstill. I can hardly bear the thought of this.
Steve: The big problem here is that Queen’s Park wants to stretch the spending out to 2020 and this dictates the speed and timing of construction. The tunneling work on Eglinton will be done first, and the stations will be filled in later. Finally, major systems like track, power, signals, etc., will be added. This whole process seems to be driven more by accounting hocus-pocus than by actually getting something finished to demonstrate what the new network will do.
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Steve said:
On that note, is the new plan for the Sheppard line to start construction from the east end of the line or from the west end?
Steve: Other than an early build at the east end, no details of construction staging have been decided or announced.
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Steve:
Yes, that is what I had in mind, a tearout of the existing track/power systems, installation of non-LIM track and overhead and a reconfiguration of the platforms to LRV height. I understand the point about the project split especially in the context of AFP but I would hope that simpler control systems in an LRT that unlike SRT was never intended to have automation would not require the whole line wait for completion back to Kennedy, as seems to be the case for Eglinton.
Steve: Sadly, the TTC and Metrolinx seem determined on ATO for the LRT lines at least in tunnels. I suspect they will want to equip the SRT with this as well. Of course, the east end of the line could be operated manually.
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In December 2010 Rob Ford (without legal authority) cancelled Transit City. In March 2012 City Council reinstated the projects that already had provincial funding in place. That’s less than 18 months delay.
So why are the completion dates backed up by such a longer time frame?
In 2010 how did the province plan to proceed with construction and how is that different from current plans? No one builds these projects in-house anyway. They go out to tender for the “private sector” to build.
Steve: Metrolinx was evasive and contradictory on this when challenged during the press scrum (about which more when I update the article). They claim that additional time is due to the fact that by going the AFP route with Infrastructure Ontario, this adds to the time before startup because of all the extra contract language needed versus a conventional tender. On the other hand, they say that a lot of the engineering work was already done. What I think is really going on is that Sheppard has been pushed back for cash flow reasons, but Metrolinx did not publish info about that aspect of the staging.
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An interesting idea I saw floated today was to put together a funding proposal for a DRL and put it up for a referendum in 2014. That would probably blunt the Ford’s “We want subways, you don’t”!” message.
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I’ve gone through the reasons that have been explained as to why Metrolinx is waiting until 2014 to start construction of the Sheppard LRT line, but really are they that foolish. I don’t think anyone should worry about the municipal election that could throw this plan back into disarray. Does Metrolinx (aka Mr. McGuinty) not realize that they are a minority government and the opposition could call an election (seemingly) at any time. Are they this confident (or arrogant) enough to think that they will last until 2014. I’m sure many people don’t want Hudak (Mike Harris II) to come in and cancel the project once it has started, just like the Conservatives did with the Eglinton subway. Sheppard really should be built as soon as possible to avoid this political debate. Torontonians are sick and tired of it. The Ford tandem (or who I like to call the self-proclaimed duopoly) keep starting the fire and subway vs. LRT, and to speak for myself, I am really getting fed up with it.
Steve: The 2014 election in question is the municipal one.
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From the latest map, it would appear that Metrolinx is recommending an interlined service between the eastern portion of Sheppard and the SRT, but not the SRT and Eglinton. Interesting. I take it they think such a route would be too long, or that the service levels would be too different. It’s also interesting to note that passengers from the west will be forced to switch vehicles at the Sheppard E. LRT stop to reach STC. While we can’t provide a one seat ride for everyone, the current layout requires too many transfers for traffic that is not destined for downtown. This reduces the overall attractiveness of the network.
Steve: No, the SRT blue line on the map only indicates that the SRT cars will use Conlins Road carhouse. As for through running to Eglinton, the SRT will open first and obviously with captive service, followed by Eglinton. It remains to be seen whether there will be through running with extras for peak period service on the SRT.
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Steve, more questions as usual:
McCowan yard will move to Conlins right?
Steve: The SRT LRVs will use Conlins and McCowan will vanish.
The GO line next to the SRT, will that raise issues with the remake of the SRT to S/LRT?
Steve: No.
I find it funny on the Sheppard line for 2014. Just saying.
Can they use the same digging machines from the YUS extension for Eglinton, Sheppard and Finch? Both Eglinton and Sheppard will have underground parts, I am thinking Finch’s terminus will be underground at Finch West station.
Steve: Eglinton’s tunnel is a wider bore than the YUS extension to Vaughan, and the machines are already under construction. Finch won’t need a bored tunnel for its connection at Finch West Station. Sheppard may not be bored either.
From what I understand the Crosstown will come up at Laird … someone said it would go underground around Don Mills for the DM station. Please tell me this isn’t true. Aren’t portals expensive?
Steve: Yes, the line surfaces east of Brentcliffe where Eglinton does down a long grade to cross the west branch of the Don River. West of Don Mills, where the line is climbing up out of the valley, there will be a portal leading into Don Mills Station, and the line will surface east of Don Mills Road. The line dives underground just west of Kennedy to go into an underground platform at Kennedy Station with a much simplified link to the subway.
Someone above mentioned about Subway being converted to LRT, wouldn’t the tunnels have to be rebuilt as LRT tunnels have to be bigger due to the wiring? Also the stations would have to be rebuilt for LRT’s low-floor boarding. Not that I believe any Cllr would be stupid enough to suggest this as it looks that it would be really expensive and not necessary.
By the way, my Sheppard/2014/funniness thing, is due to my “every time a new mayor comes, he/she cancels previous mayor’s plan out of ego. Is there anything preventing 2014’s Mayor, or new MPPs/Premier from changing their minds and converting SELRT to subway (this sort of applies to EGG/Finch).
Steve: The Mayor needs to have the support of Council. Do you honestly think Ford will (a) be re-elected and (b) have a working majority? As for the provincial government, yes, if the Tories get in, they could kill the whole thing, but they’re still trying to find a few members who understand urban issues, let along get enough elected to form a government.
For the record I mentioned Swan Boats throughout the process just for you. Also if Centre Island ever sells their Swan Boats from their Swan Boats ride, I’ll buy you a Swan Boat.
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Wait a sec! I though the Spadina extension, at least to YorkU, was opening in 2015, not 2016. If not, where’s the best place to get updates on this?
Steve: Both the TTC and Metrolinx have repeatedly said the line will open in late 2015 or early 2016. The 2016 date was repeated on a few occasions at today’s Metrolinx meeting. According to the FAQ page:
Ergo certainly not in time for the Pan Am games.
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Thanks, Steve, for answering my question.
TTC Chair Karen Stintz and her supporters on city council must be acutely aware of the political risk MetroLinx is taking by dragging out the timelines for building the New Transit City. I hope they will immediately put pressure on MetroLinx to get one line built and in operation as soon as possible – Finch comes to mind as the one they should build first to showcase what true LRT can do, and thereby defuse the opposition.
Another thought comes to mind – that Ford has taken his fight for subways underground, out of the limelight of the press and the public – and has quietly struck a deal with MetroLinx to stretch out the build timeline as it is PRECISELY so that in 2014 he can get another crack at building his subways before much of any actual work has been completed – or even started.
I would not for one second put it past your Mayor to attempt such a strategy – he is THAT violently opposed to surface LRT.
Just how susceptible might the MetroLinx folks be to this kind of beneath-the-radar dealing, especially if substantial sums of money quietly change hands to facilitate these delays?
Do you feel that the MetroLink staff have enough integrity to resist being bribed into delaying Transit City? If they can be bought, wouldn’t that be just hunky-dory for Ford and his crew!
Steve: The shots at Metrolinx are really called in the Premier’s office, and I don’t think that McGuinty has any desire to get into bed with Rob Ford. The idea that the province would jeopardize an $8.4-billion transit commitment this way is simply not credible. As for the Metrolinx folks, if they are playing this sort of game as a way to get out of building LRT lines, well, I would have a very special place reserved for them, and it’s rather hot. I believe this is too much of a conspiracy theory even for me to believe.
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According the timeline, the maintenance facilities are to be constructed started in 2013 and completed by 2016 (at least for the SRT/Sheppard facility). Is this so that the delivery of the light rail vehicles to the maintenance facilities can occur to avoid having to pay the penalties?
The delivery to the facilities could mean testing of the vehicles and training of operators could occur on tracks as they are completed. We could see them being tested by 2017, one year before the Sheppard line is opened by 2018.
Steve: The intent is to have at least part of the shops plus some trackage on Sheppard available for testing once deliveries start.
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In today’s Star, there was an artist’s rendition (from Metrolinx) of how the transfer between subway and LRT would look at Don Mills Station. It seems Metrolinx wants to sacrifice 1 of the 2 subway tail tracks at Don Mills to provide 1 tail track for the LRT. Is this the final plan or just an alternative? I originally thought the solution would be (1) 2 new LRT tail tracks at the end of the subway platform with both the LRT and subway platforms being at the same level, or (2) the LRT tail tracks would be 1 floor above the subway level.
Steve: Yes, the description in the text (which talks about people walking along the platform from the LRT to the subway) fits with the idea of a separate set of terminal tracks for each mode with a common platform. Things get a bit tricky if the tail tracks on both sides are preserved as they would conflict with the LRT tracks. I will chase this with Metrolinx.
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I read in the Star tonight that the current schedule for building the LRV’s means that were Ford to be in a position to kill the Light rail plans in 2014 the City/Province would be stuck with hefty penalty charges. Hence it might be wise to not postpone the completion of these cars.
Steve: I prefer to think that if the City is foolish enough to re-elect Ford, it will have penalties and problems far worse than the LRV contract.
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Regarding fears as to the cost and difficulties of converting LRT lines to subways were that unlikely event to take place at some mythical future date, the procedure is simple. You just build a subway as if there was no LRT line there. Then, after the subway is finished and in operation you tear up the LRT line if you so desire just like tearing up an abandoned streetcar line as was done on Yonge and Bloor/Danforth after the subways on those streets were completed. As for those sections that are in tunnels, there would be a bit more involved there but I understand that the tunnels on Eglinton will be built to be able to accommodate subway trains so even there the costs etc. should be relatively small. Of course and most of the LRT’s will not go underground anyway but that consideration in itself, would be good reason for not building the Eglinton LRT underground east of Laird as the Ford brothers want.
So can we just put those tiresome fears about someday maybe needing a subway in the real or imagined future aside and get on with the LRT’s that we need today.
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Steve, is there any chance that the test track at the east end of the Shepherd line could be sometimes used as a demonstration track like the LRT Demo line out in BC? It really is important for people to see what an LRT line looks like. We have to sell the concept to undercut the opposition lies.
Steve: Metrolinx is keenly aware that they need to generate as much good publicity for LRT as possible, and this is an obvious way to do it.
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BTW, regarding converting the Shepherd stubway to LRT, why would it be necessary to rebuild the tunnels for overhead wires? Equipping the cars to run on either third rail or overhead is about as simple as it gets especially as these cars will have pantographs which can be raised and lowered by flicking a switch and not trolley poles which must be raised and lowered by hand. From what I can see, the only problems would be converting the station platforms but there is no doubt that eliminating the transfer at Don Mills would make the LRT more palatable to the doubters and result in smoother operations once it’s done..
Steve: But this would put third rail at platform level.
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Yes, not that we’re outright making accusations against Metrolinx, but I still have many problems with their proposed scheduling. First, if Metrolinx’s intent was to push as much funding off into the distant future as possible, then the Ford-made disruption sure was a convenient opportunity for them. Secondly, even if they explicitly state their support for LRT, they are not doing enough to ensure that LRT does get built, let alone showing that they even care if it gets built or not.
Furthermore, all this assurance that the LRT projects won’t be affected by elections and politics is meaningless when one remembers what Queen’s Park had said when it first delayed Transit City funding: that the projects would be safe regardless of the election outcomes.
I await your update on Metrolinx’s press scrum.
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Regarding the 2014 municipal elections outcome: I would not rule out that Ford loses the mayoral elections, but manages to stir enough suburbs-vs-downtown animosity to get all suburban councilors elected on anti-LRT platform. There could be a reverse of the present situation: a pro-LRT or centrist mayor, and a hardline anti-LRT city council.
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In response to David O’Rourke’s comment, they could use high-floor LRT cars, like in Calgary. It would cost a bit more to build the street-level stations and yards, but it would solve all the problems in the tunnel.
Generally, there is a lack of creativity in thinking about the Sheppard subway. It is a huge mistake and bad design to leave it as it is.
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Will Consumers Road be the first station on the Sheppard LRT? It seems like kind of a big gap between Don Mills and Consumers.
Steve: Yes, it will. There’s this small road called the Don Valley Parkway in between, and the line cannot surface until it gets under that road.
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Steve, I was at the Chaplin station design review yesterday, and a TTC employee was saying that the revamped SRT line was not to be through-routed with the Eglinton line, saying that it would cause over-crowding at Eglinton station like we have at Bloor-Yonge now if they didn’t force a transfer to one mode or the other at Kennedy. (“Force a transfer” is my choice of words, not his.) Is this plan confirmed?
Steve: I am waiting for Metrolinx to get back to me on this. Considering that bumping the ridership on Eglinton was always one of Metrolinx’ goals, it sounds as if someone is doing an about-face. Of course, if we build a DRL to Eglinton, this would not be a problem. They need to look at long-term network behaviour.
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Hi Steve
One thing that keeps coming up with the Sheppard LRT is the issue of traffic congestion. I seem to recall that the original plan for Sheppard would not result in the loss of any traffic lanes. Sheppard was either wide enough as built or the road allowance itself would allow the maintenance of the current road width. Is the claim of lane loss another Ford smoke and mirrors show?
Steve: Yes. The place where lanes are lost is on Eglinton where the HOV lanes will be traded off for transit lanes. Since those lanes don’t exist as HOV outside of the peak periods, there will be a net narrowing of the road. When Queen’s Park was negotiating with Ford, they offered to pay for taking land to widen Eglinton, but he refused and demanded subway or nothing. I think this issue should be revisited given that construction in the affected area (west from Kennedy) won’t happen for quite some time.
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Since we’re hopefully at the beginning of a new light-rail based era of transit for Toronto, I thought it timely to take a moment to pay respects to the past. For the interest of the trainspotters out there, by pure chance I had a run-in with a few retired members of the TTC’s venerable H4 fleet last night. On my way to visit relatives in my native Hamilton, I decided to take the long way home through the east end of the city. Imagine my surprise to find three forlorn looking H4 cars sitting in the middle of a scrapyard on the Hamilton Port Authority’s Pier 22 (foot of Strathearne Avenue north of Burlington St, for those really interested), presumably awaiting the shredder and steelmaking furnaces at ArcelorMittal’s Hamilton works. I quickly snapped a few shots before port security got too suspicious, and have uploaded them here. Sadly I was unprepared for the event and the shots are of relatively poor cellphone camera quality.
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Yes, I am aware of the existence of the DVP. I thought it unlikely that the LRT would be able to surface in time for a stop at Yorkland Rd, but it is unfortunate that the stop at Yorkland (currently a bus stop) will be lost, as it is one of the places along Sheppard where there actually is some density (a few existing high rises to the north, plus a couple under construction on the south side).
Steve: Part of the problem is the depth of Don Mills Station and the vertical rise needed to get back to the surface once the line crosses under the DVP. There is a related problem with the Consumers stop for people who enter the developments south of Sheppard further east. They too asked for their own stop at Settlers Road, and were turned down during the EA process. This is the classic conundrum for “rapid transit” — do we give everyone their own station, or do we make some attempt at “faster” transit service. At least with LRT you have the option of asking, but if this had been a subway project, you would have only the station at Consumers Road. I am sure some bright spark would argue that walking from Victoria Park would be quite “acceptable” to most riders.
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The Sheppard LRT proposal needs to go back to the drawing board. According to the Toronto Star the TTC is planning to replace one of the platforms of Don Mills station with a light rail platform which will greatly reduce the maximum capacity of the existing Sheppard subway. It will be impossible to run trains more frequently than they do now which means that the Sheppard subway (which is full with 4 car trains every 5 minutes in rush hour) will not be able to handle additional passengers transferring from the Sheppard LRT plus passengers entering at Don Mills station. I would much rather see a proper subway on Sheppard though if more funding can be found. Furthermore I think there needs to be a subway line on Don Mills up to Highway 7 (basically the downtown relief line but extended further north). The 401/DVP/404 interchange and the area along DVP/404 from Don Mills up to 16th Avenue or so is a densely built up, job rich area and the traffic congestion problems in rush hour are severe. These proposals are expensive but are desperately needed since there is so much employment in this area; employment growth is not just in downtown Toronto these days.
Steve: Please see my remarks in the updated article. The Star’s picture is not the definitive design for Don Mills Station. The problems you cite with stub-ending both the LRT and subway lines are glaringly obvious. This is not the only design that has been proposed for Don Mills, and the one described verbally at the media briefing is the version where the two lines butt up against each other with a common platform. Metrolinx plans to revisit this issue.
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