My latest for NOW Toronto looks at the historical pattern of bold transit plans conceived when times are good that inevitably crash into the hard reality of economic upheaval every decade or so.
There will be less money sloshing around in the economy for many years, and the many expensive projects on our transit and other political menus are unlikely to proceed as planned.
The challenge for those who believe transit is an essential part of our future is to rethink priorities and focus on advocacy for meaningful, widespread transit improvements. This will be a difficult road.
Steve Munro 
This might be a silver lining to an otherwise bleak scenario for the building of new transit infrastructure in Ontario. By axing the latest imbroglios planned (SSE, Ontario Line, et al) something far less ludicrous might be the outcome, and perhaps, just perhaps, with a greater federal component to it that rationalizes the planning and funding.
Since ultimately it’s the Feds who control the majority of the purse-strings, they couldn’t do any worse than what Queen’s Park is now doing, and most likely a lot better, combining planning and use with VIA and others.
It’s early times, but what’s clear is that the Feds have little choice but to plunge further into debt (and I agree with this, caveats pending) and with that, they will exact much greater regulation of where and how the money is spent, and into what infrastructure, and the pending next reign of Del Duca as Ontario Premier will be far more willing and able to complement that, rather than confound it.
As an adjunct to this answer, here’s a very telling statement just published in the UK Guardian: (I leave it to Steve to truncate as he sees fit, but hopefully it can remain fully intact, I see this as prescient)
Steve: The quote from The Guardian is/was on a page that is constantly updated. Stephen Saines pulled the text above at 1:04 pm March 16.
The source article is on the EPHA website.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Ironically right when this whole pandemic thing resolves itself would be the optimal time (from a stimulus standpoint) to invest in large scale infrastructure projects such as transit. Unfortunately many of the investing powers that be don’t rank transit on the same level as 400 series highways, bridges, (and corporate tax cuts). More selective austerity to come.
Steve: Another problem with “stimulus” is that some projects simply cannot be started “tomorrow” because of lead times for engineering. Conversely, pet projects should not be allowed to consume stimulus dollars that are sequestered for years waiting until projects are “shovel ready”. This was a problem with the federal PTIF funding. Toronto simply could not spend the money quickly.
Transit spending is something that should be ongoing, not spiking in reaction to economic problems that require quick actions.
LikeLiked by 1 person
As an economist I would take a different view here. Large scale infrastructure spending, financed by debt, may be exactly what is needed to get the economy moving again once the crisis passes. But as a long-time resident of Toronto, I fear your gloomier take may well turn out to be correct!
Steve: Please see my response to the previous comment. There is a big problem with lead times for large transit projects. It is very difficult to turn on the tap quickly, and there is also a danger that what we actually build in the name of “stimulus” addresses a political problem (getting votes) rather than building what is needed. Shiny and new might be less important than increased state of good repair for aging infrastructure (and that applies well beyond transit). I am thinking much more broadly than transit: public buildings, water and sewer works, and, yes, roads which are an important part of the transportation network on a provincial and national level.
LikeLiked by 1 person
If we lived in a rational world we might expect that the inevitable ‘re-think’ that you predict would see the most desirable projects proceeding and those that offer less would be scrapped. Of course, we all realise that our politicians will probably do the exact opposite.
LikeLiked by 1 person
This type of thinking and mindset is I think the crux of the issue. If people look at transit as something that’s “nice to have” rather than something we “need to have” the things you describe in the article will keep happening. When times are tough, you cut the extras – not what you think is essential. If transit projects were thought of as being essential, they would not be cut. All places that have built exceptional transit infrastructure have done so because they have sustained it through economic good times and tough times – since they saw it as necessary.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Steve is absolutely right in that big transit projects make for lousy unemployment relief projects. Not only because of their long lead times, but also because there tends to be a mismatch between the skills required to build the project and the skill set of unemployed people. In other words, design and construction of a big transit project usually requires a lot of engineers and skilled construction workers. That usually does not describe most of the unemployed people.
However, there are some transit projects that have short lead times, although the skills mismatch issue may still apply. The best one is to tackle the backlog of deferred maintenance. Yes, how unsexy. But a good way of spending stimulus dollars quickly.
We could also give Bombardier the contract to manufacture 60 additional streetcars in Thunder Bay. Quite frankly, their lousy performance makes me really not want to do that, but, hey, it means jobs in Thunder Bay. Never forget that rural areas are over-represented in Ontario’s parliament. Rest assured that politicians do not.
I note that Steve is quoted in this CBC article from January 26 saying that Bombardier finally got their act together and should get the contract.
The King Street transit priority project could also be extended to other congested streetcar routes. This could be done quickly, and delivers a huge value for money. Ironically, too good of a value for money for very much stimulus. But hey, a few million here, a few million there, it soon adds up to real money.
LikeLiked by 1 person
So for the last 5/6 years I’ve been pushing for surface relief function vs. Suspect Subway Extensions and even finding fault with the Relief Line subway proposal, though absolutely we need Relief. Part of it is time – we’re out of it, climatically speaking, and part of it is providing a more robust network from silver buckshot, and not a Huge Megaproject or two, though yes, we do need robust capacity and it’s worth the investment vs. penny-wise Ford-foolish cheapness in the core, and not lower-density suburbs. But a third motivator is a concern and worry about the immense cost, capital and operating, of more than a few of these Big Schemes, where the folks voting and planning for them don’t actually have any personal payment into them, nor any real repercussion if, oop$$, pick any number of reasons, many valid – especially with larger projects involving digging.
Most everyone has been uninterested in the Keep It Simply Surface approach for faster done and faster sub-regional transit on the under-used corridors in east-of_yonge TO of parts of the Don Valley including Parkway south of Thorncliffe to core, and the Gatineau Hydro corridor, which goes all through Scarborough on an off-road diagonal.
So part of me is quite appreciative of finally – a meltdown! Though once again, those that have brought us the mess aren’t really paying for it, and let’s hope it soon translates in to a housing price slash and rental expansion. It may be too much to hope that the Ford government will be willing to stop sub-braying for suburban votes, and the federal Liberals may not be any better, but they are thankfully in a minority situation and have to do some realisitic and good things on the climate file, where it would be really helpful to have whatever statements the public health people have said on the climate emergency brought forward.
They’ve been kinda silent it seems like on the traffic violence file – we really should have a Coroner’s Review of traffic enforcement in Caronto through the last decade as one example. And with bike safety, it too is lagging, including on main roads with streetcar tracks where a LOT of the edges of the concrete tracks are in very rough shape and we at times need a bit fo wiggle room to escape a door, or construction occupation of the entire curb lane.
And yes, people are likely going to try biking not the transick.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Slightly aside to the string’s premise, but in light of present events:
I can’t help but wonder, with the agreed need of ‘social distancing’ by everyone, that the TTC and GO are making a bad move by reducing service.
Yes the demand is going to be greatly reduced, but the need for social distancing dictates more vehicles to carry this reduced demand. It’s needed for essential services alone, let alone those who must still work or have family and community responsibilities.
With all the talk of massive cash infusion impending, perhaps now is the time to spend a fraction of that, an absolute pittance of the $Billions being discussed, to safely carry people now at a ‘safe distance’ from each other.
Why something so glaringly obvious has escaped administrators is…well…typical.
LikeLike
With “biking” = This New York Times article on bicycle commuting
Many thumbs up! Not only did I read it, I forwarded the link to many others. The obvious exposure on the TTC got me cycling down to Kensington instead of braving the frantic supermarket next door. I feel human again…
Another ‘silver lining’ to this chapter.
LikeLike
We should be able to get quickly to shovels in the ground – if we brought back Sheppard east LRT and reverted to the Scarborough LRT – and frankly the rest of the Scarborough portion of the Transit City proposals. We should also be able to push without too much delay an extension of Finch west LRT – to the Airport, although that cannot happen instantly, as I doubt highly it is shovel ready.
The completion of signaling on line one – could permit the immediate follow up with platform edge doors at a number of busy stations – especially Yonge Bloor. Granted that the doors cannot be installed until ATC is possible in the stations in question. Eglinton – could be considered now, before the LRT starts to operate, we need to get ATC at Bloor to make this possible as part of the work.
However, billions can be spent for state of good repair, that need to be.
Lots of projects should be being readied for spending that are rapid transit.
LikeLike
There are at least a few shovel-ready or near shovel-ready projects across the country that the government could get a jump on to help stimulate the economy. The various projects around Toronto awaiting funding (Eglinton East, Bloor/Yonge, new streetcars and buses and garages, GO RER, elevators and second exits in subways stations), Vancouver’s Broadway Subway and Canada Line improvements, Calgary’s Green Line and Edmonton’s LRT network expansions (that were ready to go until Kenney cancelled them last year), Montreal’s Blue and Orange line extensions… A wise government would devote some resources to ensuring that once this crisis is over, it’s ready to act on some of these needs while interest is low and the economy needs the jolt. (Ditto also for other needed but unrelated infrastructure, like public housing, power/roads/water/internet to First Nations communities, etc…)
Steve: The $1.5 billion Bloor-Yonge project already has funding committed by all three governments. Design work is in progress.
LikeLike
@RobSalerno: You forgot to state the Scarborough subway extension. It has funding from all levels of government, design work has been well underway, and construction starts in early 2021. This is the project least likely to be cancelled.
LikeLike
TTC has announced all door boarding for all vehicles including subway trains, RT trains, streetcars, and buses. This will speed up boarding and improve travel times. Good move by the TTC. I hope that this change is permanent.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hans: It’s the least they can do. Guelph Transit, OC Transpo and others have gone free until this episode is over.
I’m still seething over this:
At the time of that release, I Googled thoroughly to check the veracity of the claim. It’s virtually BS. Any claim the manufacturer can make for Microban is limited by law to “microbal” and that’s not in a hygenic sense, but for odour control.
Metrolinx either got played as a sucker, or more likely, tried to play us all as suckers. At the time and until quite recently, TTC, Metrolinx and Toronto Health were all extolling how “low risk” travelling in jam packed rush-hour trains and buses was.
The ruse has come to an end. As to how *anyone* could have believed persons jammed face-to-face within inches was a “low risk” situation, even before fully understanding the aerosol and droplet propensity of this particular virus, boggles the mind.
There’s a massive amount of blame to go around, and transit and health authorities are going to have to own up to theirs.
Steve: Do you mean “microbial”, not “microbal”?
LikeLike
@YorkUniversityStudent: I was trying to focus on unfunded projects that are ready to get going and aren’t already part of the baseline program for the economy, but since you bring it up, is Scarborough ready to go? I thought we were still years away from shovels in the ground. I haven’t seen any station designs for Sheppard and Lawrence.
Steve: Scarborough is some time away from actually starting and, yes, the station designs are not finished. This could affect the tunnel alignment plans too. Remember that despite the hoopla about an RFQ for potential tunnel builders, the opening date is still pegged at 2029-30 and that implies a drawn out schedule. In turn, I suspect that was intended to avoid having too many projects on the go at once. Scarborough is important politically, but more for the optics of getting “something” started to show faith in the project, and to let Doug Ford cut a ribbon if only in front of a digger and a dump truck while he is still Premier.
LikeLike
If we were, or had been smarter, and had surface Relief in the Don Valley, with connection to RIchmond Hill GO line as per 1995 OPlan, and some other measures or Relief function, I think we could squeeze the billions of the Bloor and Yonge money pit. And since many of us only see robust transit as subway, why not explore a subway on the Don Valley Parkway instead of the OL and Yonge/Bloor? The overload on to only two spines is Wrong.
The Stupid Subway Extension has backed us all in to a corner; and now it’s oh ‘safety’, but we don’t take safety issues with climate breakdown at all seriously to think of shutting down the Pearson Airport as a containment/preservation measure. We don’t even measure the GHGs in our national or City profile – not good for getting votes.
A smaller relief measure is a continuous Bloor/Danforth bikeway, and if the transit weren’t so relatively light (I haven’t been on), it should be done as a coping/health measure. But we’re incapable of doing even a small part of Bloor St. E. in the 2001 Bike Plan for maybe $50,000 – though it’s a logical follow-through of the existing Viaduct lanes.- in existence for 20-ish years.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Indeed, an early morning typo on my behalf. Retracing my link for veracity, however, the TorSun story containing the “Aegis Microbe Shield Antimicrobial Spray” link has gone dead. It was to the purported Cdn licensee.
It was live a week ago, at which time I traced the product to the US manufacturer’s source, and checked the EPA status. Rather than dwell on what I found there, I managed to find the CBC story.
It’s a much more comprehensive story on the TTC’s and Metrolinx’ claims, the TTC using a different disinfectant. Aikins appears to be walking back claims made either earlier or mistakenly in the TorSun article:
From the CBC article:
Chakrabarti said the most important thing is to remember to wash hands frequently.]
Interestingly, the TorSun story is dated March 4, and the CBC one March 3, updated the same day.
Googling to get more background on this, it seems a lot of disinfectants aren’t certified to be effective.
Rather than my dismissing the efficacy of any, best to flip this over, and the TTC and Metrolinx should take note:
Source: Chemical & Engineering News
LikeLike
You might want to check the history of the Eglinton West subway before making brave statements like that.
LikeLike
This is so true, even if it is satire…
The Beaverton: TTC adequate for first time in 40 years
Steve: Alas despite the satire, there have been shuttle buses and signal failures and “operational problems” aplenty. And a transit Nirvana should not come at such a horrendous cost.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Spurr writes for TorStar:
Which directly contradicts statements made to Spurr two days previously:
Both are non-paywall, so I’ll only quote the points to highlight:
Today’s article, the former linked above, states:
“because there isn’t any medical advice that suggests that it’s necessary to do so”. Actually that’s highly debatable, and a subject flaring on the internet and in medical circles right now, but that isn’t the sciatic nerve that made Verster jerk in anguish. Just remember that there’s absolutely no medical proof for the “one year anti-microbial spray” discussed in prior posts here either. Metrolinx just babbles and makes things up as it goes along.
From the earlier story: (Aikins states)
Keep in mind these are the N95 masks. Emphasis on “We are well-stocked with masks”. Uh Oh! That’s something that Verster really doesn’t want divulged if true. Or the present Ford regime. To the presently abjectly under-equipped medical front-line workers, that’s a slap in the face.
Perhaps Ms Aikins could offer to spray the workers with something that will “last a year”? It seems to eradicate union relations quickly and exquisitely.
I suspect there’s a lot more to come out about this little imbroglio…
Today’s Spurr article:
There’s a saying that “there’s nothing like a crisis to bring out the worst in people”. So true. Stand by for more…
LikeLike
With cancellations, and yes, Suspect Subway Extension is a prime candidate in my view, or should be, though we have to spend on transit there and elsewhere, we should learn what to look for in contracts from the Sorbara Extension, another too-political subway with too high a set of public costs, and some ongoing. Getting the extension up to York U made some sense, but to actually get into Vaughan and the vicinity of some land holdings? Nope. So contracts were all structured to interlink somehow, so that it wasn’t possible to interfere with the whole package, so we were $crewed. Odds are this could occur again, though with SSE, it’s the entire concept in favour of other options.
And to tie in to public health, the size of the proposed bus terminal, and all those diesel buses will be a Problem, not that we really do much worrying about emissions it seems. And there’s the over-concentration of interchange as well.
So diffuse lines and transfers – a network even – are far more resilient than Major spines, which with SSE, concentrates further load, or will, on to the Danforth end, and nope, not too much Relief out there, as Eglinton won’t help that much especially if it feeds in to Yonge, not really planned for either.
Meanwhile, we still lack that bit of Bloor St. E. for bike safety, though in the 2001 Bike Plan, for maybe $25,000 or $50,000. And all of Scarborough could have had a connected on-road bike network, though just paint, for modest millions by now, hardly even the cancellations fees.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’d say it’s more like “There’s nothing like a crisis to find out who the flaky a-holes are.”
There’s a lot of stand-up folks out there, from TTC operators to healthcare staff to grocery store staff to garbage collectors. All staying at it for us. I’m sure a lot of them would like to be at home hiding, like the rest of us, but they’re the heroes. Now, once you get into management…well a-holes are a lot easier to find than heroes.
LikeLiked by 1 person
There is no connection between the Eglinton West subway or the Scarborough subway extension. I am confident that construction on the Scarborough subway will start soon. The finishing time is some time away but it is important to start construction ASAP to avoid political interference from any future governments although it is difficult to see how the NDP under Andrea Horwath or the Liberals under Steven Del Duca can win. I would say that the NDP could defeat Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives but not under Andrea Horwath who has lost four successive elections.
Steve: In a failed re-election attempt, David Peterson announced a network of subway lines going into the 1990 election. Bob Rae inherited the plan and embraced it as a job stimulus package, but most of it never got beyond the design phase.
Eglinton West was cancelled by Mike Harris. He wanted to cancel the Sheppard line too, but is was far enough along, and he needed Lastman’s support for the megacity legislation, so he let it go. However, the funding tap was turned off and the line ended at Don Mills.
It’s a long time from now to fall 2020 when Metrolinx hopes to call a Request for Proposals, and a good year to the point where they would award any contracts (this applies to the Ontario Line too). Priorities could change even under a Ford government, let alone any of the opposition parties.
LikeLike
In a Mar. 4 Toronto Sun article, Metrolinx media spokesman Anne Marie Aikins said,
That statement about lasting up to a year is wrong and misleading; she was either misinformed by her staff or she is exaggerating its efficacy and duration just because it sounds good.
There is nothing in Microban Co. literature, the maker of Aegis Microbe Shield, stating that period of effective duration. They state in their website, “AEGIS® technology has a history of safe use and durable, ensuring long-lasting antimicrobial efficacy.”
Microban Co. just issued a memo on its Aegis Microbe Shield stating,
Two key lines from the memo are:
Anyone proposing its use against Covid-19 virus is wrong and offering false hope and promise.
LikeLiked by 1 person
There’s no shortage of them in management it seems, albeit I suspect there’s actually some very competent but sidelined management at Metrolinx, especially in their planning and technical department. But they’re muzzled.
I’ve thought about Aikins and Verster’s comments, and Aikins gets herself into many awkward situations, and she’s certainly misspoken more than a few times, the Coronavirus situation prompting a number from her, but Verster has truly put his hands to his face on what’s reported by Spurr, where Verster could very easily have taken the situation well in hand in a sanitary way by stating something to the effect of:
Verster’s snapping at Spurr indicates very poor management skill. A classic ‘shoot the messenger’ reaction. It’s far from the first time Verster has done that, as Steve knows all too well, and many others.
Personally, for the life of me, I can’t understand why the TTC or Metrolinx would forbid the use of masks by employees on the front line, let alone the company provide them.
Every pic of airline employees embarking, disembarking or in flight shows them wearing issued surgical masks. I even seen them on the UPX and at Bloor station wearing them.
The TTC is now allowing employees to ‘wear their own’. Metrolinx? I withhold further comment for now…
LikeLike
Bob: Many thanks for that! I had to put together a case from widely Googling, and using subtractive logic. You nailed it. No wonder the TorSun link went dead to the purported supplier to Metrolinx.
There’s very real concern as to the wholesale spraying of *any* substance in a wild attempt to ‘kill the beast’. It can do more harm than good, especially for people with existing breathing issues, rendering them even more susceptible to the ‘stickiness’ of the Coronavirus.
Steve: Not to mention the well-known problem of ineffective “cleaning” that leaves the most robust variants alive.
LikeLike
Why are people discussing medical issues on a transit site? Let us focus on transit. My question is how is the TTC going to spend the millions extra that the TTC is collecting thanks to yet another fare increase that was shoved down our throats? I hope that the TTC will spend the extra cash wisely on increasing service rather than on increasing salaries as usual.
Steve: The discussion was about the credibility (or lack of it) of Metrolinx claims for disinfecting its vehicles, and more generally of their tendency to be bearers of “good news” even if it’s inaccurate.
As for the TTC’s fare increase, they are already in the hole on revenue thanks to the drop in riding. The budget did have provision for some added service, although frankly not as much as there should have been. We continue to suffer from the somewhat artificial constraint that we don’t have enough vehicles to improve service, but don’t build new capacity to hold a larger fleet either.
Even the discussions about electric buses focus on replacing existing vehicles, not on fleet and service growth.
LikeLike
You also forgot the big point about the Eglinton West subway; shovels were already in the ground when it was cancelled. If memory serves, they were only a few months away from the point where it would have been cheaper to complete the line rather than filling in the hole. So simply being shovel ready is not immunity to having a project cancelled.
And continuing the point quoted above, the Ford Government has been gaining political capital from the Covid-19 crisis. If they don’t screw it up by the fall, they may feel confident that they no longer need to build subways to win votes and kill off all subway projects to get the deficit under control.
Steve: No, only a small amount of work happened on Eglinton, unlike Sheppard where there was a real push to get it to the point of no return before the election. And, no, I did not forget it.
In the current crisis I will be surprised to see contracts let for either the Scarborough or Ontario Line projects.
LikeLike