Humber Bay Gets Its Express Bus

Today, the TTC, in the best tradition of oiling the squeaky wheel, agreed to a one-year trial operation of a premium fare express bus from eastern Mimico to Union Station.  This ran contrary to the staff recommendation that the route would not meet the criteria for a financially viable operation.

During the debate, Commissioner Hall suggested that, as a condition of this trial, the Humber Bay condo owners should stop operating their own private bus service over the same route.  However, this idea was withdrawn.  Chair Adam Giambrone supported the scheme with reservations, but expected that the ridership numbers would bear out what staff predicted and the route would not survive its one-year review.  We shall see.

This service will require 3 additional peak buses to provide 5 inbound morning and 4 outbound afternoon trips.

I cannot help observing that this situation (the demand for a special bus) mirrors the situation in the Beach.  The TTC is reaping the effect of two decades of ignoring the poor quality of service offered on Lake Shore.  Despite all the claims of better operation on the 501, the efforts at managing operators to avoid short turns only takes place in the east, and has yet to be implemented westbound at Roncesvalles.  Moreover, the 3 morning trips on the 508 Lake Shore, trips that should run like clockwork, are not predictable or worth waiting for.

It will be amusing to see whether the TTC manages to get the buses to their stops on schedule, and how long it takes for the would-be riders to complain about infrequent, unreliable service.

It’s always interesting to listen to people talking about how fast they can drive downtown, and therefore how good the bus would be.  They ignore the need to walk to a stop, to wait for a bus and to get through downtown traffic to their stop.

Meanwhile, all of you whose routes are still crowded will wait a little longer for service meeting the TTC’s own standards.  Even with recent increases, there remains a considerable number of routes that are overcrowded and for which the TTC has no spare equipment.

Sometime late in 2009, we may see the 501 Queen service extended from Humber to Park Lawn, provided that the forty-two municipal agencies that appear to be incapable of co-ordinating any transit-related construction can get their acts together.  It will be intriguing to see what effect this has on demand for the premium fare bus service and what the comparable running times, including waits, really are.

20 thoughts on “Humber Bay Gets Its Express Bus

  1. If that Humber Bay express operates on regular fare rather than premium fare, there will be no shortage of riders.

    People living near Kipling Ave, Finch E, Steeles E etc have their peak-hour express bus, for a regular fare. So why can’t those living near Lakeshore W get theirs?

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  2. This is the best news to come out of the TTC in a while concerning bus service.

    I am so glad the commission decided not to listen to the outdated staff recommendations and instead decided to bring auto competative and quality transit service to an area of the city that needs it.

    Lets be honest Steve. Even a 501 streetcar that runs on time will not provide the speedy service needed in the Humber Bay area.

    The streetcar takes almost one hour to get downtown via Queen or King(509). Driving even in rush hour takes 15 minutes or less.

    The best thing the TTC could do, is just cancel streetcar service west of Humber Loop, and operate a bus route from Long Branch to Humber, and then express onto Union at all time periods.

    There is a reason most Humber Bay residents drive downtown to work. And that’s because transit is slow. Lets hope this new addition does so well the TTC will have no option but to bring on more routes like this to all areas of Toronto.

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  3. Maybe the commissioners did the unheard of an performed a due diligence on the numbers in the report:

    Incremental revenue = $153,000
    Net incremental subsidy = $96,000

    TOTAL = $249,000

    Total revenue from new riders = $30,000
    Per ride revenue for a new rider = ($30,000 / (40 * 250 ) = $3

    Total revenue = $3 * 250 * 380 = $285,000

    Meaning the service would make a profit of $36,000 a year.

    Steve: Let’s doublecheck your math by reference to the report.

    It is projected that the service would be used by approximately 380 customer-trips each weekday, of which approximately 40 would be new to the TTC and would be attracted by the new express service. The total amount of new fare revenue attributed to the service would be $153,000 per year, of which approximately $30,000 would be from the regular fare and premium fare from new customers, and approximately $123,000 would be from the additional premium fare paid by existing customers who would switch, primarily from the existing 501 QUEEN and 508 LAKE SHORE streetcar services.

    The service would require three buses in the morning peak-period and two buses in the afternoon peak-period. The additional direct operating costs, net of the additional fare revenue, would be approximately $96,000 per year.

    You are double counting revenue. Most of the potential riders already use the TTC, and you cannot include the portion of their fare that they already pay as part of the “revenue” attributable to the new service. As the excerpt about states, there is only $153,000 net new revenue. However, the cost to run the service, even with the premium fare, would be $96,000 more or $249K. Although each rider “pays” $3, most of them are already paying a regular fare to ride existing services.

    If the number of net new riders goes up, then things will change, and the trial will show us whether the folks living in Humber Bay would actually use the new bus. All the same, they will be subsidized both by the operating deficit and by the dedication of three vehicles (replacement capital cost of roughly $2-million) that could be put to better use elsewhere.

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  4. I have talked to people who actually think this route is a good idea. It’s not even going to serve the community west of Park Lawn. It’s bus so that well-to-do can avoid using the 501. Sad.

    Steve: Actually to be fair, some trips will start eastbound at Kipling, but there are no details yet.

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  5. As someone who uses the 501 route west of Humber, I have to disagree with Michael B’s suggestion to use a bus west of Humber instead. The streetcar line is already there, what is needed is a way to provide better service, not simply changing the way the service is provided. How about trying to add a express bus service, but leave the streetcar service for those requiring local service (and just in case the express service does not pan out.)

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  6. Steve suggested a while back that we should swap King’s CLRVs for Queens ALRVs. IE – run shorter streetcars along Queen so that the gap between them is shorter as well. Doing this would help the 501 in Etobicoke.

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  7. A disagree as well. I am a rider of the 501 west of Park Lawn and believe me I try to avoid the 501 because it is so inconsistent. Many other people feel this way as well. Just recently I was on a streetcar and someone fell down the stairs of the streetcar. This cause a huge delay with at least 7-9 streetcars being backed up. I didnt even wait for a shuttle bus and I just took the bus up to the Bloor Danforth line. If the service was there, more people would take it. It isn’t as deserted as many people think.

    Steve: I agree with you about the service. The TTC runs crap service, spends years making excuses, and then wonders why people want a dedicated express bus.

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  8. Michael B. says

    ¨The streetcar takes almost one hour to get downtown via Queen or King(509). Driving even in rush hour takes 15 minutes or less.¨

    It takes about an hour from Long Branch loop to Queen and Spadina. There is no way that it takes an hour from Park Lawn to Yonge Street.

    King and Queen get hit in the west end if the Gardiner is backed up. Guess where the premium express bus is sitting?

    Vic says

    ¨A disagree as well. I am a rider of the 501 west of Park Lawn and believe me I try to avoid the 501 because it is so inconsistent. Many other people feel this way as well.¨

    I have tried alternate service by taking buses (in my case Shorncliffe or Islington South 110A) up to the subway. There is no particular advantage if your destination is close to Queen Street. I have also seen odd gaps in Shorncliffe service, while the 110A and 110B take a leisurely half-hour to get to Islington Station. I generally stick to the 501, while complaining about service management.

    I haven´t seen if the 501 service has improved lately–I´m in Buenos Aires. The vintage subway cars on Linea A are something to see and ride–okay, they were rebuilt in 1926, but they´re still pre-WWI wood cars at heart. You´d think that H4 cars and CLRVs would be a piece of cake to keep running, right?

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  9. Its all about speed. The 501 could have come every min on Lakeshore, but it would still take one hour to get you downtown, when you could drive it in 10 minutes.

    There comes a point where a route is just too long, and the 501 is one of them.
    Lets put it this way. If Humber Bay and Long Branch were located in Chicago, they would have no fewer then 4 full time express routes to downtown.
    Chicago does this with all their lakeshore communities both north and south of downtown, and the buses are some of the busiest routes in the system. And why? Because they offer auto competative service.

    If TTC does not start offering competative service, then ridership will just decline in that area, because people will not put up with an hour ride if they don’t have to.
    I don’t like hearing people say they are giving up on TTC and getting a car, because it takes to long to travel anywhere. And sadly I hear that comment alot from the western Lakeshore. People are fed up.

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  10. Michael B. says

    “Its all about speed. The 501 could have come every min on Lakeshore, but it would still take one hour to get you downtown, when you could drive it in 10 minutes.¨

    To repeat myself, the 501 with a competent operator can get from Long Branch Loop to Queen and Spadina in approximately 50 minutes, consistently. In fact, from the time I locked my front door at the foot of Fortieth St. to the time I walked in the door at my work on Spadina just north of Queen was pretty much an hour exactly. And it´s almost twenty minutes from Long Branch to the east end of Mimico.

    As for driving downtown in ten minutes. yes it´s possible to drive from Park Lawn to the on-ramp and zip to the Yonge/York/Bay exit in ten minutes, at least when there´s no traffic.

    But I challenge you to drive from Mimico, park your car, and meet me at the corner of Queen and Yonge, in ten minutes. Unless your idea of being ¨downtown¨is taking a brief glance from the Gardiner, it´s much longer than ¨ten minutes¨ to downtown. The Queen car actually takes you useful places. The Gardiner takes you to a bunch of off-ramps.

    There is obviously no way I could have driven to work in ten minutes; guess trying to duplicate my Queen car commute by driving would take at least 45 minutes door-to-door if leaving at the same time.

    (Never mind that it would take fifteen minutes just to get back on the Gardiner in the evening, stuck on southbound Spadina.)

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  11. Sorry Michael, It’s not always about speed. It’s about QUALITY of service, and the 501 Queen Streetcar is severely lacking it.

    You really have to stop assuming that ridership will decline because transit is slower than the car. The ridership on the Queen car is so low, because the TTC essentially screwed up the service to the point that it’s inconsistent. I am experiencing the same problem on the 32 Eglinton West bus right now. The service is inconsistent to the point that you have crushloaded buses being passed by empty buses. It’s insane.

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  12. My numbers are for full cost/full revenue rather than differential. The TTC evaluates existing services on this basis – albeit with limitations that always exist in this type of analysis. If the new service were considered on its own, it would be a no brainer to implement – i..e it’s an inherently good deal (assuming the TTC’s projections are accurate) for the TTC and riders.

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  13. Just to add, I’m not sure what the capital cost for the rail work west of Humber. I’d guess would be $15-$20 million – which would mean that the interest on it would cover operating the buses and their capital charges many times over.

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  14. I have to both disagree and agree with the idea that “It’s not about speed, its about quality”. When it comes to transit, quality is speed. How fast can you get to a stop (stop spacing) how fast will the vehicle come (headways) how fast will it get to where you are going (express/local) etc etc etc. It’s all about speed at the end of the day, but different ‘kinds’ of speed.

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  15. Well, quality is not just speed, but speed is an important part of it. Getting from Long Branch to Spadina in 50 minutes isn’t that fast. I get from Steeles and Dufferin area to downtown in 50 min – just look at the map and compare the distance.

    In the short / medium term, I would think of buying more streetcars and buses, and splitting the 501 service into two routes like Steve suggested a while ago: 508 Long Branch – downtown and 501 Neville – Park Lawn. [But perhaps the 508 should run downtown at all times, not divert to Dundas subway off peak.] The streetcar service could be complemented by express bus to downtown: regular fare, peak time only, but decent frequency during the peak, like every 12 or 15 min.

    In the long run, if Downtown Core subway is going to be build anyway, perhaps the South Etobicoke LRT should connect to that subway rather than Union loop. The exact routing will depend on the route of DCL; for example, if it runs along Queen up to Dufferin jog and then turns north-west along the rail corridor, then the connection would be at Queen / Dufferin station. The LRT would need about 1.5 km of tunnel under Queen from Roncesvalles to Dufferin, and convenient, common subway / LRT platforms.

    The Union loop could then be reserved for near waterfront (western line extended from Exhibition to Ontario Place, and eastern service along Lakeshore / Cherry).

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  16. I agree with what Rainforest said:

    “In the short / medium term, I would think of buying more streetcars and buses, and splitting the 501 service into two routes like Steve suggested a while ago: 508 Long Branch – downtown and 501 Neville – Park Lawn. [But perhaps the 508 should run downtown at all times, not divert to Dundas subway off peak.] The streetcar service could be complemented by express bus to downtown: regular fare, peak time only, but decent frequency during the peak, like every 12 or 15 min.”

    You need to get people downtown fast (especially in rush hour), but you also need the streetcar service west of Humber (i.e. all the way to Long Branch) to provide local service along the route regardless of the time. Not everyone is heading downtown.

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  17. More on the speed discussion.

    I overheard some people talking while on the subway. They were going from St. Geroge to Union.

    They said they did not wait to wait for a taxi, so they took the subway on this particular day. One of them said that they would normally take the streetcar to work, but that it takes to long, another said they’d take the GO Train but that the gap between trains is too large as whatever station they live near is skipped by express trains.

    It really does all come back to speed. Speed is not just getting from “Point A to Point B” Speed includes how long it takes you to get to whatever “Point A” transit has set out for you, and then how long it takes a vehicle to get there too. Etc etc etc.

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  18. I never said that speed was irrelevant. I said that “it takes only ten minutes to drive from to downtown” is incorrect, for most values of and . The real time to drive is a lot longer than that, and time to park must be added in.

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  19. This is absalutly fantastic. As a person without a car, having this alternative would save a significant amount of travel time and would most certainly save me the cost of actually buying a car in this city.

    I do, however, think the bus route should be constant, not just during rush hours.

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